Mudstone compaction curves in basin modelling: a study of Mesozoic and Cenozoic Sediments in the northern North Sea

Basin modelling studies are carried out in order to understand the basin evolution and palaeotemperature history of sedimentary basins. The results of basin modelling are sensitive to changes in the physical properties of the rocks in the sedimentary sequences. The rate of basin subsidence depends, to a large extent, on the density of the sedimentary column, which is largely dependent on the porosity and therefore on the rate of compaction. This study has tested the sensitivity of varying porosity/depth curves and related thermal conductivities for the Cenozoic succession along a cross‐section in the northern North Sea basin, offshore Norway. End‐member porosity/depth curves, assuming clay with smectite and kaolinite properties, are compared with a standard compaction curve for shale normally applied to the North Sea. Using these alternate relationships, basin geometries of the Cenozoic succession may vary up to 15% from those predicted using the standard compaction curve. Isostatic subsidence along the cross‐section varies 2.3–4.6% between the two end‐member cases. This leads to a 3–8% difference in tectonic subsidence, with maximum values in the basin centre. Owing to this, the estimated stretching factors vary up to 7.8%, which further gives rise to a maximum difference in heat flow of more than 8.5% in the basin centre. The modelled temperatures for an Upper Jurassic source rock show a deviation of more than 20 °C at present dependent on the thermal conductivity properties in the post‐rift succession. This will influence the modelled hydrocarbon generation history of the basin, which is an essential output from basin modelling analysis. Results from the northern North Sea have shown that varying compaction trends in sediments with varying thermal properties are important parameters to constrain when analysing sedimentary basins.     

Percolation losses in paddy fields with a dynamic soil structure: model development and applications

The hydraulic characteristics of the plough pan of paddy fields provide continuous ponding conditions during the growing season and control the water use efficiency in wet rice production. Its saturated hydraulic conductivity K_s, however, exhibits a large spatiotemporal variability as a consequence of a highly dynamic soil structure involving temporary shrinkage cracks. Water flow through the earthen bunds surrounding the fields further contributes to the uncertainty in water flux calculations. The objective of this study was to develop a simple deterministic model with stochastic elements (‘PADDY‐FLUX’) for depiction of deep percolation, and to assess the effect of different water management scenarios on percolation in two channel command areas. Darcy's law is used as the fundamental equation for water flow calculations with the ponding water depth h as a time‐dependent variable. Flux uncertainty is estimated by a Monte‐Carlo‐type implementation. K_s is treated as a random variable of a bimodal probability density function (PDF), which is the weighted sum of two Gaussian PDFs (accounting for a matrix and a preferential flow domain). The weighing factor α is a function of h, reflecting an increasing risk for preferential flow situations after desiccation and the development of shrinkage cracks. Under‐bund percolation is calculated using transfer functions. The results demonstrate that percolation losses increase in the following order: continuous soil saturation < continuous flooding (CF) < mid‐season drainage and intermittent irrigation (MD + II) < mid‐season drainage and continuous flooding. The bunds contribute up to 54 and 17% to total fluxes under CF and MD + II, respectively. Preferential water fluxes are responsible for the major part of water losses as soon as desiccation causes the formation of shrinkage cracks. As a conclusion, continuous soil saturation should be promoted as the least water‐intensive irrigation regime, while intermittent irrigation is recommended only in case that irreversible shrinkage cracks have already developed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating coseismic deformations from near source strong motion records: methods and case studies

Digital strong-motion accelerographs have opened up the possibility of extracting ground motion characteristics at much lower frequencies than was offered by analogue instruments. High-quality digital data obtained close to the faults have tempted several efforts to retrieve permanent ground displacements after an earthquake. Such attempts have been partly successful, and somewhat subjective, the main reason being the presence of baseline offsets in the accelerometric data. We review existing methods for such applications, discuss their limitations and propose a more objective and improved scheme to make baseline adjustments and obtain permanent displacements. The proposed technique is applied to 26 digital recordings from the 29 May 2008 Ölfus Earthquake in South Iceland and 9 recordings from the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake, and the permanent displacements obtained are compared with published results and GPS measurements from nearby stations. Our case studies show that the proposed technique, in addition to being simple and objective, is effective in making adjustments for baseline errors in accelerometric data.     

On the response of a turbulent coastal buoyant current to wind events: the case of the Western Adriatic Current

This numerical study focuses on the response of the Western Adriatic Current to wind forcing. The turbulent buoyant surface current is induced by the Po river outflow in the Adriatic Sea. Idealized and realistic wind conditions are considered by retaining the complex geomorphology of the middle Adriatic basin. In the absence of wind, the Adriatic Promontories force the current to separate from the coast and induce instabilities. Persistent 7-m s^− 1 downwelling favorable northwesterly winds thicken and narrow the current. Instabilities whose size is ~10 km develop but ultimately vanish, since there is not enough across-shore space to grow. On the contrary, 7-m s^− 1 upwelling favorable southeasterly winds thin and widen the current, and instabilities can grow to form mesoscale (~35 km) features. When realistic winds are considered, the same trends are observed, but the state of the sea set up by previous wind events also plays a crucial role. The turbulent regimes set up by different winds affect mixing and the WAC meridional transport. With downwelling winds, the transport is generally southward and mixing happens mostly between the fresher (S ≤ 38) salinity classes. With upwelling winds, the transport decreases and changes sign, and mixing mainly involves saltier (S > 38) waters. In all cases, mixing is enhanced when a finer 0.5-km horizontal resolution is employed.     

On the variability of the Charnock constant and the functional dependence of the drag coefficient on wind speed

A model for the air–sea interface, based on the coupled pair of similarity relations for “aerodynamically” rough flow in both fluids, is presented, which is applied to fetch-limited and high wind speed conditions which occur, for example, in hurricanes. It is shown that the specification of the maximum 10-m drag coefficient and the 10-m wind speed and the peak wave speed at which it occurs are sufficient to uniquely determine the drag law, which asymptotes at low wind speeds to a Charnock constant similar to that for the fully developed wind wave sea and is almost independent of the peak wave speed at the maximum in drag coefficient. A feature of the drag law is that it is of Charnock form, almost independent of the wave age, consistent with the transfer of momentum to the wave spectrum being due to the smaller rather than the dominant wavelengths. The analysis is also applied to a variable sea state in which either the surface wind or the surface Stokes drift vary, but the peak wave speed is kept constant. The corresponding variability in the Charnock constant is in general accord with observations.     

OSL and ESR studies of Aeolian quartz from the Upper Pleistocene loess sequence of Nussloch (Germany)

As part of a chronological study of the famous Upper Pleistocene Nussloch (Germany) loess sequence, three samples were collected to check the applicability of palaeodosimetric dating methods (OSL and ESR) to quartz grains. The ESR-multicentre method showed a partial bleaching of the ESR centers in aeolian sands. This partial bleaching was also observed by OSL. Laminated loess seemed to be sufficiently bleached but showed a large scatter of the doses, which we ascribed to heterogeneous responses of the luminescent grains to the SAR protocol. Ages could nevertheless be calculated for the three samples and were found to be somewhat older than the IRSL and ¹⁴C ages obtained for the same layers of the laminated loess.     

On characterizing the temporal dominance patterns of model parameters and processes

Diagnostic analyses of hydrological models intend to improve the understanding of how processes and their dynamics are represented in models. Temporal patterns of parameter dominance could be precisely characterized with a temporally resolved parameter sensitivity analysis. In this way, the discharge conditions are characterized, that lead to a parameter dominance in the model. To achieve this, the analysis of temporal dynamics in parameter sensitivity is enhanced by including additional information in a three‐tiered framework on different aggregation levels. Firstly, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivity provide daily time series of their sensitivities to detect variations in the dominance of model parameters. Secondly, the daily sensitivities are related to the flow duration curve (FDC) to emphasize high sensitivities of model parameters in relation to specific discharge magnitudes. Thirdly, parameter sensitivities are monthly averaged separately for five segments of the FDC to detect typical patterns of parameter dominances for different discharge magnitudes. The three methodical steps are applied on two contrasting catchments (upland and lowland catchment) to demonstrate how the temporal patterns of parameter dynamics represent different hydrological regimes. The discharge dynamic in the lowland catchment is controlled by groundwater parameters for all discharge magnitudes. In contrast, different processes are relevant in the upland catchment, because the dominances of parameters from fast and slow runoff components in the upland catchment are changing over the year for the different discharge magnitudes. The joined interpretation of these three diagnostic steps provides deeper insights of how model parameters represent hydrological dynamics in models for different discharge magnitudes. Thus, this diagnostic framework leads to a better characterization of model parameters and their temporal dynamics and helps to understand the process behaviour in hydrological models. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling Freshwater Resources at the Global Scale: Challenges and Prospects

Quantification of spatially and temporally resolved water flows and water storage variations for all land areas of the globe is required to assess water resources, water scarcity and flood hazards, and to understand the Earth system. This quantification is done with the help of global hydrological models (GHMs). What are the challenges and prospects in the development and application of GHMs? Seven important challenges are presented. (1) Data scarcity makes quantification of human water use difficult even though significant progress has been achieved in the last decade. (2) Uncertainty of meteorological input data strongly affects model outputs. (3) The reaction of vegetation to changing climate and CO₂ concentrations is uncertain and not taken into account in most GHMs that serve to estimate climate change impacts. (4) Reasons for discrepant responses of GHMs to changing climate have yet to be identified. (5) More accurate estimates of monthly time series of water availability and use are needed to provide good indicators of water scarcity. (6) Integration of gradient-based groundwater modelling into GHMs is necessary for a better simulation of groundwater–surface water interactions and capillary rise. (7) Detection and attribution of human interference with freshwater systems by using GHMs are constrained by data of insufficient quality but also GHM uncertainty itself. Regarding prospects for progress, we propose to decrease the uncertainty of GHM output by making better use of in situ and remotely sensed observations of output variables such as river discharge or total water storage variations by multi-criteria validation, calibration or data assimilation. Finally, we present an initiative that works towards the vision of hyperresolution global hydrological modelling where GHM outputs would be provided at a 1-km resolution with reasonable accuracy.     

Seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in terms of macroseismic intensity using a site approach

We present the results of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for Iceland in the framework of the EU project UPStrat-MAFA using the so-called site approach implemented in the SASHA computational code. This approach estimates seismic hazard in terms of macroseismic intensity by basically relying on local information about documented effects of past seismic events in the framework of a formally coherent and complete treatment of intensity data. In the case of Iceland, due to the lack of observed intensities for past earthquakes, local seismic histories were built using indirect macroseismic estimates deduced from epicentral information through an empirical attenuation relationship in probabilistic form. Seismic hazard was computed for four exceedance probabilities for an exposure time of 50 years, equivalent to average return periods of 50, 200, 475 and 975 years. For some localities, further return periods were examined and deaggregation analysis was performed. Results appear significantly different from previous seismic hazard maps, though just a semi-qualitative comparison is possible because of the different shaking measure considered (peak ground acceleration versus intensity), and the different computational methodology and input data used in these studies.