Auto-covariance estimation of variable samples (ACEVS) and its application for monitoring random ionospheric disturbances using GPS

 Ionospheric variation may be considered as a stationary time series under quiet conditions. However, the disturbance of a stationary random process from stationarity results in the bias of corresponding samples from the stationary observations, and in the change of statistical model parameters of the process. From a general mathematical aspect, a new method is presented for monitoring ionospheric variations, based on the characteristic of time-series observation of GPS, and an investigation of the statistical properties of the estimated auto-covariance of the random ionospheric delay when changing the number of samples in the time series is carried out. A preliminary scheme for monitoring ionospheric delays is proposed. Received: 18 August 2000 / Accepted: 12 April 2001     

区域尺度蒸散发遥感估算——反演与数据同化研究进展

遥感技术近年来在估算区域尺度蒸散发中应用广泛。不同方法在驱动数据、模型机理和适用范围往往存在很大差别。鉴于此,阐述了基于传统方法空间尺度扩展的遥感模型,经验统计公式,特征空间法,单源、双源垂向能量平衡余项法等几类的遥感蒸散发反演方法,简要介绍了三温模型、非参数化模型、半经验模型、集成模型等常用模型。同时,分析了遥感数据同化实现连续估算区域蒸散发的主要思路,综述了基于能量平衡和基于复杂过程模型的数据同化的原理、方法演进及常用同化算法等。最后,探讨了各类区域蒸散发遥感方法的优劣、展望了模型机理完善、不确定性研究、结果验证等与蒸散发直接反演和数据同化相关的研究方向。     

Characterizing climate change risks by linking robust decision frameworks and uncertain probabilistic projections

There is increasing concern that avoiding climate change impacts will require proactive adaptation, particularly for infrastructure systems with long lifespans. However, one challenge in adaptation is the uncertainty surrounding climate change projections generated by general circulation models (GCMs). This uncertainty has been addressed in different ways. For example, some researchers use ensembles of GCMs to generate probabilistic climate change projections, but these projections can be highly sensitive to assumptions about model independence and weighting schemes. Because of these issues, others argue that robustness-based approaches to climate adaptation are more appropriate, since they do not rely on a precise probabilistic representation of uncertainty. In this research, we present a new approach for characterizing climate change risks that leverages robust decision frameworks and probabilistic GCM ensembles. The scenario discovery process is used to search across a multi-dimensional space and identify climate scenarios most associated with system failure, and a Bayesian statistical model informed by GCM projections is then developed to estimate the probability of those scenarios. This provides an important advancement in that it can incorporate decision-relevant climate variables beyond mean temperature and precipitation and account for uncertainty in probabilistic estimates in a straightforward way. We also suggest several advancements building on prior approaches to Bayesian modeling of climate change projections to make them more broadly applicable. We demonstrate the methodology using proposed water resources infrastructure in Lake Tana, Ethiopia, where GCM disagreement on changes in future rainfall presents a major challenge for infrastructure planning.     

Behavior of carbonate-associated sulfate during meteoric diagenesis and implications for the sulfur isotope paleoproxy

Although carbonate-associated sulfate (CAS) is used widely as a proxy for the sulfur isotope composition of ancient seawater, little is known about the effects of diagenesis on retention of primary δ³⁴S signals. Our case study of the Key Largo Limestone, Pleistocene, Florida, is the first systematic assessment of the impact of meteoric diagenesis on CAS properties. Geochemical and petrographic data show that meteoric diagenesis has affected the exposed coralline facies to varying degrees, yielding differences now expressed as sharp reaction fronts between primary and secondary carbonate minerals within individual coral heads. Specifically, analyses across high-resolution transects in the Key Largo Limestone show that concentrations of strontium and sodium decrease across the recrystallization front from original aragonite to meteoric low-magnesium calcite by factors of roughly 5 and 10, respectively. Predictably, δ¹⁸O values decrease across these same fronts. The δ¹³C relationships are more complex, with the most depleted values observed in the latest-formed calcite. Such trends likely reflect carbon isotope buffering capacity that decreased as reaction progressed, as well as protracted development of soil profiles and the associated terrestrial biomass and thus depleted δ¹³C during sea-level lowstand. Conversely, δ³⁴S values of CAS vary within a narrow ‘buffered’ range from 20.6 to 22.6‰ (compared to 20.8-22.0‰ of coeval Pleistocene seawater) across the same mineralogical transition, despite sulfate concentrations that drop in the diagenetic calcite by an average factor of 12. Collectively, these data point to robust preservation of primary δ³⁴S for carbonates that have experienced intense meteoric diagenesis, which is encouraging news for those using the isotopic composition of CAS as a paleoceanographic proxy. At the same time, the vulnerability of CAS concentrations to diagenetic resetting is clear.     

A carbon balance model for the great dismal swamp ecosystem

Background

Carbon storage potential has become an important consideration for land management and planning in the United States. The ability to assess ecosystem carbon balance can help land managers understand the benefits and tradeoffs between different management strategies. This paper demonstrates an application of the Land Use and Carbon Scenario Simulator (LUCAS) model developed for local-scale land management at the Great Dismal Swamp National Wildlife Refuge. We estimate the net ecosystem carbon balance by considering past ecosystem disturbances resulting from storm damage, fire, and land management actions including hydrologic inundation, vegetation clearing, and replanting.

Results

We modeled the annual ecosystem carbon stock and flow rates for the 30-year historic time period of 1985–2015, using age-structured forest growth curves and known data for disturbance events and management activities. The 30-year total net ecosystem production was estimated to be a net sink of 0.97 Tg C. When a hurricane and six historic fire events were considered in the simulation, the Great Dismal Swamp became a net source of 0.89 Tg C. The cumulative above and below-ground carbon loss estimated from the South One and Lateral West fire events totaled 1.70 Tg C, while management activities removed an additional 0.01 Tg C. The carbon loss in below-ground biomass alone totaled 1.38 Tg C, with the balance (0.31 Tg C) coming from above-ground biomass and detritus.

Conclusions

Natural disturbances substantially impact net ecosystem carbon balance in the Great Dismal Swamp. Through alternative management actions such as re-wetting, below-ground biomass loss may have been avoided, resulting in the added carbon storage capacity of 1.38 Tg. Based on two model assumptions used to simulate the peat system, (a burn scar totaling 70 cm in depth, and the soil carbon accumulation rate of 0.36 t C/ha^?1/year^?1 for Atlantic white cedar), the total soil carbon loss from the South One and Lateral West fires would take approximately 1740 years to re-amass. Due to the impractical time horizon this presents for land managers, this particular loss is considered permanent. Going forward, the baseline carbon stock and flow parameters presented here will be used as reference conditions to model future scenarios of land management and disturbance.

     

Spatio-temporal variance and meteorological drivers of the urban heat island in a European city

Urban areas are especially vulnerable to high temperatures, which will intensify in the future due to climate change. Therefore, both good knowledge about the local urban climate as well as simple and robust methods for its projection are needed. This study has analysed the spatio-temporal variance of the mean nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) of Hamburg, with observations from 40 stations from different suppliers. The UHI showed a radial gradient with about 2 K in the centre mostly corresponding to the urban densities. Temporarily, it has a strong seasonal cycle with the highest values between April and September and an inter-annual variability of approximately 0.5 K. Further, synoptic meteorological drivers of the UHI were analysed, which generally is most pronounced under calm and cloud-free conditions. Considered were meteorological parameters such as relative humidity, wind speed, cloud cover and objective weather types. For the stations with the highest UHI intensities, up to 68.7 % of the variance could be explained by seasonal empirical models and even up to 76.6 % by monthly models.     

Induced seismicity due to hydraulic fracturing near Blackpool,UK: source modeling and event detection

Journal of Seismology - Monitoring small magnitude induced seismicity requires a dense network of seismic stations and high-quality recordings in order to precisely determine events’...     

Educating Geographers with GIS Skills for the Real World: Some Feedback from Geography Graduates at Southwest Texas State University

Abstract

Results of a survey to find out whether the GIS program in the Department of Geography at Southwest Texas Stare University (SWT) has served its graduates well are presented. In recent years, a considerable amount of effort has been given to the development of strategies for expanding the existing horizon of GIS education, integrating existing programs, and improving the ways in which GIS education is delivered. This study takes a different approach and seeks to get input from geography graduates who have secured a job in the real world for improving a university GIS program. Based on 26 responses to the survey, employment categories of SWT geography graduates are examined first. Then, geography courses that are considered most helpful in career development by the survey participants are identified. Third, useful GIS courses and essential skills required by the marketplace in the real world as suggested by the survey participants are discussed. It is clear from the results of the survey that the geography program at SWT in general has served its graduates well. Results from the survey also clearly indicate that GIS skills are useful in the career development of most geography graduates, particularly for those who have a concentration area in either GIS/Cartography, Resource and Environmental Studies, or Urban and Regional Planning.