答“对秦岭奥长环斑花岗岩质疑”

环斑花岗岩是一种特殊结构的花岗岩类，并且多数产在元古宙克拉通中。笔者曾报道了在秦岭造山带中发育有印支期具有环斑结构的花岗质岩石。“对秦岭奥长环斑花岗岩质疑”一文认为它们不是环斑花岗岩，并引用Ramo的图表来说明自己的观点。本文将从以下几方面进行讨论：秦岭环斑花岗岩的研究历史；环斑花岗岩的定义；世界上环斑花岗岩的成因类型；秦岭环斑花岗岩的副矿物及铁镁含量和环斑钾长石特征；秦岭环斑花岗岩与基性岩共存等。本文还论证了秦岭环斑花岗岩不同于元古宙非造山环斑花岗岩，而是一种造山型的环斑花岗岩，其形成于后造山环境，是挤压（造山）向拉张（稳定）转折时期的产物。最后对研究秦岭环斑花岗岩的几个理论问题进行了探讨。     

Early Estimation of Strong Aftershock Duration Time

In order to solve the problem of early estimation of moderately strong aftershock duration time in an earthquake sequence,this study has been conducted.First,the definition of the strong aftershock has been given.It is pointed out that there is a difference in the strong aftershock duration time between the main shock type sequence and the strong earthquake swarm sequence.After dividing the three cases,i.e.,a strong aftershock duration time larger than 1 day,smaller than 1 day,and no strong aftershock occurred in a main shock type sequence by using the pattern recognition method,we gave the rough correlation relation between strong aftershock duration time and first large shock magnitude for two types of sequences.Finally,the judgment index and method of estimating strong aftershock duration times for different sequence types have been given.     

Fast assessment of earthquake loss and its application to the 2008 M_S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake

The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on macro-economic indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades.The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with MS8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship.Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the...     

Interannual Thermocline Signals and El Nio-La Nia Turnabout in the Tropical Pacific Ocean

One of the fundamental questions concerning the nature and prediction of the oceanic states in the equatorial eastern Pacific is how the turnabout from a cold water state (La Nina) to a warm water state (El Nino) takes place, and vice versa. Recent studies show that this turnabout is directly linked to the interannual thermocline variations in the tropical Pacific Ocean basin. An index, as an indicator and precursor to describe interannual thermocline variations and the turnabout of oceanic states in our previous paper (Qian and Hu, 2005), is also used in this study. The index, which shows the maximum subsurface temperature anomaly (MSTA), is derived from the monthly 21-year (1980-2000) expendable XBT dataset in the present study. Results show that the MSTA can be used as a precursor for the occurrences of El Nino (or La Nina) events. The subsequent analyses of the MSTA propagations in the tropical Pacific suggest a one-year potential predictability for El Nino and La Nina events by identifying ocean temperature anomalies in the thermocline of the western Pacific Ocean. It also suggests that a closed route cycle with the strongest signal propagation is identified only in the tropical North Pacific Ocean. A positive (or negative) MSTA signal may travel from the western equatorial Pacific to the eastern equatorial Pacific with the strongest signal along the equator. This signal turns northward along the tropical eastern boundary of the basin and then moves westward along the north side of off-equator around 16°N. Finally, the signal returns toward the equator along the western boundary of the basin. The turnabout time from an El Nino event to a La Nina event in the eastern equatorial Pacific depends critically on the speed of the signal traveling along the closed route, and it usually needs about 4 years. This finding may help to predict the occurrence of the El Nino or La Nina event at least one year in advance.     

四川盆地南部构造页岩气储层压裂改造技术

在调研和学习国内外相关页岩气压裂改造技术的基础上,通过室内实验和研究,对四川盆地南部构造S2井页岩储层岩性特征、孔渗特征、天然裂缝发育特征进行了评价。针对S2井极低渗透率(0.000 18×10-3μm2)、天然裂缝和水平层理较发育,天然裂缝内充填有碳酸盐岩,同时吸附气含量较高、脆性程度高,压裂容易形成网络裂缝的特点,进行了压裂工作液体体系优选和压裂工艺优化,采取了大规模、大排量、大砂量、低砂比、减阻水压裂施工工艺,成功实现了页岩气储层大规模减阻水压裂施工;根据微地震显示,压裂改造体积达到了480×104 m3,具有明显的体积改造特征,获得较好的效果,日产10 000 m3。压后分析数据显示,在页岩气储层中,过长的关井时间有可能影响有限支撑剂铺置的裂缝整体导流能力,最终影响到产量。S2井压裂施工成功标志着国内在页岩气压裂施工工艺、压裂工作液体体系、裂缝监测等方面实现突破。     

Seasonal and Extraseasonal Predictions of Summer Monsoon Precipitation by Gcms

ＳｅａｓｏｎａｌａｎｄＥｘｔｒａｓｅａｓｏｎａｌＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎｓｏｆＳｕｍｍｅｒＭｏｎｓｏｏｎＰｒｅｃｉｐｉｔａｔｉｏｎｂｙＧｃｍｓ①ＺｅｎｇＱｉｎｇｃｕｎ（曾庆存），ＹｕａｎＣｈｏｎｇｇｕａｎｇ（袁重光），ＬｉＸｕ（李旭），ＺｈａｎｇＲｏｎｇ...     

Progress in the Study of Deep Profiles of Tibet and the Himalayas (INDEPTH)

This paper introduces 8 major discoveries and new understandings with regard to the deep structure and tectonics of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau obtained in Project INDEPTH, They are mainly as follows. (1) The upper crust, lower crust and mantle lithosphere beneath the blocks of the plateau form a "sandwich" structure with a relatively rigid-brittle upper crust, a visco-plastic lower crust and a relatively rigid-ductile mantle lithosphere. This structure is completely different from that of monotonous, cold and more rigid oceanic plates. (2) In the process of north-directed collision-compression of the Indian subcontinent, the upper crust was attached to the foreland in the form of a gigantic foreland accretionary wedge. The interior of the accretionary wedge thickened in such tectonic manners as large-scale thrusting, backthrusting and folding, and magmatic masses and partially molten masses participated in the crustal thickening. Between the upper crust and lower crust lies a large detachment (e.g     

强La Nia背景下的东亚夏季风异常与1989年和1999年中国夏季降水的对比分析

选取两个强La Nia年(1989年和1999年),对比分析了强La Nia背景下的东亚夏季风异常和中国夏季降水分布。结果表明,受南极海冰分布异常的影响,这两年6~7月间南极涛动呈现不同的位相,进而改变了南方涛动的位相。1989年,南极涛动为正时,南方涛动为正,马斯克林高压(简称马高)偏强,澳大利亚高压(简称澳高)偏弱。与1989年相反,1999年南极涛动和南方涛动均为负位相,马高偏弱,澳高偏强,这与一般La Nia年的情况正好相反。与马高和澳高强度变化相对应,西太平洋副热带高压在1989年偏西、1999年偏东,并影响到6~7月间中国降水的分布。8月副高北抬后,南半球环流变化的影响减弱,东亚夏季风环流主要受热带环流和中高纬度环流的影响。1989年8月,受中高纬度冷平流的影响,副高偏弱,长江流域降水偏多。1999年8月,由于热带西风异常偏强,副高偏强,长江以南降水偏多。本文的研究结果表明,即使在两个相似的强La Nia事件影响下,由于其他因子对La Nia信号的调制作用,中国夏季降水仍呈现不同的分布,1989年为中间型,而1999年为南方型,这与一般La Nia年雨带偏北正好相反。最后,对中国夏季降水的季度预测提出了一些建议。     

Quantitative Assessment of Hydrocarbon Expulsion of Petroleum Systems in the Niuzhuang Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, East China

Based on a detailed survey of the distribution and organic geochemical characteristics of potential source rocks in the South Slope of the Niuzhuang Sag, Bohai Bay Basin, eastern China, a new approach to assess the amount of hydrocarbons generated and expelled has been developed. The approach is applicable to evaluate hydrocarbons with different genetic mechanisms. The results show that the models for hydrocarbon generation and expulsion vary with potential source rocks, depending on thermal maturity, types of organic matter and paleoenvironment. Hydrocarbons are mostly generated and expelled from source rocks within the normal oil window. It was calculated that the special interval (algal-rich shales of the ES4 member formed in brackish environments) in     

塔里木北部周缘前陆盆地早二叠世快速迁移与沉积相突变:俯冲板片拆沉的响应

塔里木北部周缘前陆盆地发育于泥盆纪末至早三叠世期间,完整地记录了南天山造山带的发育过程。该盆地在早二叠世由复理石盆地转化为磨拉石盆地,同时发生快速南移。同期幔源物质加入,有山根地壳熔融的岩浆活动、南天山造山带的整体隆升、热液成矿作用集中发育和变形、变质作用的激化使俯冲岩片的拆沉成为盆地转化与迁移的最佳机制。相同的转化过程及深部机制在其他造山带中也明显存在,表明俯冲岩片拆沉是造山作用一个不可或缺的环节。