Prediction of drought in dry lands through feedforward artificial neural network abilities

Drought is one of the most important natural hazards in Iran. It is especially more prevalent in arid and hyper arid regions where there are serious limitations in regard to providing sufficient water resources. On the other hand, drought modeling and particularly its prediction can play important role in water resources management under conditions of lack of sufficient water resources. Therefore, in this study, drought prediction in a hyper arid location of Iran (Ardakan region) has been surveyed based on the abilities of artificial neural. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in different time scales (3, 6, 9, 12, and 24 monthly time series) computed based on the data gathered from four rain gauge stations. After evaluation and testing of different artificial neural networks (ANN) structures, gradient descent back propagation (traingd) network showed higher abilities than others. Then, the predictions of SPI time series with different monthly lag times (1:12 months) were tested. Generally, drought prediction by ANNs in the Ardakan region has shown considerable results with the correlation coefficient (R) more than 0.79 and in the most cases and it rises more than 0.90, which indicates the ANN’s ability of drought prediction.     

Three-dimensional finite element analysis of spatially variable PVD improved ground

A stochastic approach that investigates the effects of soil spatial variability on stabilisation of soft clay via prefabricated vertical drains (PVDs) is presented and discussed. The approach integrates the local average subdivision of random field theory with the Monte Carlo finite element (FE) technique. A special feature of the current study is the investigation of impact of spatial variability of soil permeability and volume compressibility in the smear zone as compared to that of the undisturbed zone, in conjunction with uncoupled three-dimensional FE analysis. A sensitivity analysis is also performed to identify the random variable that has the major contribution to the uncertainty of the degree of consolidation achieved via PVDs. The results of this study indicate that the spatial variability of soil properties has a significant impact on soil consolidation by PVDs; however, the spatial variability of soil properties in the smear zone has a dominating impact on soil consolidation by PVDs over that of the undisturbed zone. It is also found that soil volume compressibility has insignificant contribution to the degree of consolidation estimated by uncoupled stochastic analysis.     

Changes in streamflow components following logging and regeneration in the southern forest of Western Australia

Two small experimental catchments were established in the south-west of Western Australia to study the effects of logging and subsequent regeneration on the mechanism of streamflow generation. Following a six year pre-treatment calibration period (1976–1981), one catchment (March Road) was logged and reforested in 1982 and the other (April Road South) remained as a control. Logging resulted in an increase in groundwater levels and subsequently groundwater discharge area. The deep, permanent groundwater levels in the valley and upslope areas rose until 1986 and then began to decline. The maximum rise was 5 m in the upslope areas. The duration of shallow, intermittent groundwater system, perched on underlying clay, was extended from 2–3 months in winter before logging to 5–6 months after logging. The shallow groundwater level rose in the valley and began to discharge at the ground surface in 1986. Logging resulted in an increase in streamflow. The maximum increase (≈18% of annual rainfall) was in 1983, one year after logging. The increase in streamflow was due to a substantial decrease in interception and evapotranspiration, increased recharge to the shallow groundwater system, decreased soil moisture deficit and consequently an increase in throughflow. The increase in base flow was about twice that of quick flow. The changes in streamflow and its components in the subsequent years were closely related to the groundwater discharge area. Most of the quick flow was generated as saturation excess overland flow from the groundwater discharge area in the valley. The expansion of the groundwater discharge area, increased soil moisture content, higher groundwater level and the presence of the shallow groundwater system for the extended periods were responsible for the process of streamflow generation.