Forecasting Aftershock Activity: 3. Båth’s Dynamic Law

In seismology according to Båth’s well-known law, the magnitude of the strongest aftershock is on average by unity lower than the magnitude of the main shock. At the same time, most of the strongest aftershocks typically occur within a few hours after the main shock. From the practical standpoint, this activity is quite naturally perceived as a direct continuation of the main earthquake. The subsequent strong aftershocks occur against the rarer background shocks, are less expected, and therefore constitute a separate hazard. The average difference in magnitudes between the main shock and the strongest aftershock that occurs a certain time after the main shock gradually increases. In this work, we consider the problem of estimating the magnitudes of the strongest future aftershock at the successive instants of time after the main shock without taking into account the information about the aftershocks that have already occurred before a given time. For these estimates, we construct the theoretical distributions whose shape proves to be independent of time, whereas the time dependence of the shift in the magnitude proves to be known a priori. The predetermination of these dependences at the moment of the strong earthquake gives us grounds to characterize the constructed theoretical model as Båth’s dynamic law.     

Productivity of Mining-Induced Seismicity

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - The paper addresses the study of the ability of mining-induced earthquakes to generate successive shocks. Based on the example of the Khibiny...     

Asymmetry of Sunspot Distribution in Solar Cycles 12–24 and the Gnevyshev–Ohl Rule

Geomagnetism and Aeronomy - The nonaxisymmetric component of the sunspot distribution (longitudinal asymmetry) is considered based on the Greenwich–USAF/NOAA data for 1874–2016. Vector...     

Submarine Landslides on the Western Slope of the Kuril Basin,Sea of Okhotsk

Landslide processes on the western slope of the Kuril Basin were studied using bathymetry and seismic data obtained under the international KOMEX and SSGH projects. Slope areas containing landslides, landslide blocks and mass-transport deposits were distinguished. Large-scale landslides occupying an area of more than 100 km² are located in such areas of open continental margins as the slopes of the North Hokkaido Marginal Plateau and Terpeniya Ridge. Landslide blocks up to 2 km in size and mass-transport deposits are located in submarine canyons and fans in Terpeniya Bay. The age of landslides has been estimated as Middle Pleistocene–Holocene. Landslides are most likely triggered by seismic activity and gas saturation of sediments. Subsequent slope failure seems quite probable within the study area, and landslides capable of generating tsunamis may occur.     

Structural and geological characteristics of a “seismic gap” in the central part of the Kuril Island Arc

The results of the cruise of R/V Akademik M.A. Lavrentiev conducted by the Pacific Institute of Oceanology, Far East Division of the Russian Academy of Sciences and the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences in August to September 2005 are considered. The aim of the works was to specify the tectonic structure, seismogenic potential, and tsunamigenic hazard of the central segment of the Kuril Island Arc. The complex studies involved single-channel seismic profiling, gravimetry, magnetometry, detailed bathymetry, dredge sampling of sea-floor rocks and sediments, and gas geochemistry. Geophysical and geological data are reported. It was demonstrated that the target area is an active tectonic destruction zone, the zone boundaries were outlined, and the main internal structural and compositional heterogeneities were identified.     

Convection in the mantle with an endothermic phase transition

An endothermic phase transition at a depth of 660 km in the mantle partially slows down mantle flows. Many models considering the possibility of temporary layering of flows with separation of convection in the upper and lower mantle have been constructed over the past two decades. The slowing-down effect of the endothermic phase transition is very sensitive to the slope of the phase-equilibrium curve. However, laboratory measurements contain considerable uncertainties admitting both a partial convection layering and only an insignificant slowing down of a part of downgoing mantle flows. In this work, we present results of calculations of mantle flows within a wide range of phase-transition parameter values, determine ranges of one-and two-layer convection, and derive dependences of the amplitude and period of oscillations on phase-transition parameters.