Data mining methods for hydroclimatic forecasting

Skillful streamflow forecasts at seasonal lead times may be useful to water managers seeking to provide reliable water supplies and maximize hydrosystem benefits. In this study, a class of data mining techniques, known as tree-structured models, is investigated to address the nonlinear dynamics of climate teleconnections and screen promising probabilistic streamflow forecast models for river–reservoir systems. In a case study of the Lower Colorado River system in central Texas, a number of potential predictors are evaluated for forecasting seasonal streamflow, including large-scale climate indices related to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and others. Results show that the tree-structured models can effectively capture the nonlinear features hidden in the data. Skill scores of probabilistic forecasts generated by both classification trees and logistic regression trees indicate that seasonal inflows throughout the system can be predicted with sufficient accuracy to improve water management, especially in the winter and spring seasons in central Texas.     

Determination of Cepheid parameters by light-curve template fitting

We describe techniques to characterize the light curves of regular variable stars by applying principal component analysis (PCA) to a training set of high-quality data, and to fit the resulting light-curve templates to sparse and noisy photometry to obtain parameters such as periods, mean magnitudes etc. The PCA approach allows us to efficiently represent the multiband light-curve shapes (LCSs) of each variable, and hence quantitatively describe the average behaviour of the sample as a smoothly varying function of period, and also the range of variation around this average.
In this paper we focus particularly on the utility of such methods for analysing Hubble Space Telescope ( HST ) Cepheid photometry, and present simulations which illustrate the advantages of our PCA template-fitting approach. These are: accurate parameter determination, including LCS information; simultaneous fitting to multiple passbands; quantitative error analysis; objective rejection of variables with non-Cepheid-like light curves or those with potential period aliases.
We also use PCA to confirm that Cepheid LCSs are systematically different (at the same period) between the Milky Way and the Large and Small Magellanic Clouds, and consider whether LCS might therefore be used to estimate the mean metallicities of Cepheid samples, thus allowing metallicity corrections to be applied to derived distance estimates.     

THE ROLE OF ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION PATTERNS IN AGROCLIMATE VARIABILITY IN FINLAND, 1961–2011

This study evaluates interannual variations and trends in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum in Finland during 1961–2011, and their connections to well known atmospheric circulation patterns. Changes in summer (June–August) climate partially explain changes in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum over Finland, which naturally decreased from south to north. On a national scale, growing season warmed and became wetter during 1961–2011, as growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum significantly (p < 0.05) increased by 5.01 ± 3.17°C year^–1 and 1.39 ± 0.91 mm year^–1, respectively. The East Atlantic pattern was the most influential atmospheric circulation pattern for variations in growing season daily temperature sum (rho = 0.40) across Finland and the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern was most influential for growing season daily precipitation sum variability (rho = –0.54). There were significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends in growing season daily temperature sum and daily precipitation sum throughout Finland during 1961–2011. Increased growing season daily temperature sum was mainly observed in northern, central, western, eastern and coastal areas of south‐western Finland. This warming was positively associated with the East Atlantic pattern in the north, centre and south, but negatively associated with the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in eastern Finland. Increased GSP mostly occurred in southern, eastern, western, central, northern and north‐western Finland. These wetting trends were positively correlated with the East Atlantic pattern in the north and negatively correlated with the Polar pattern in the south and the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern in the east, west, centre and north‐east of Finland. The overall agroclimatic year‐to‐year variability in Finland between 1961 and 2011 was mostly linked to variations in the East Atlantic and East Atlantic/West Russia patterns.     

Spatial comparisons in wetland loss,mitigation, and flood hazards among watersheds in the lower St. Johns River basin,northeastern Florida,USA

Natural Hazards - The objective of this research is to establish a model that characterizes integrated humanitarian operations management in response to flood disasters, during which an optimal...     

Comparison of solutions to the thirteen-moment and standard transport equations for low speed thermal proton flows

We have compared solutions obtained from the general 13-moment system of transport equations with those obtained from the standard collision-dominated transport equations for conditions corresponding to low speed thermal proton flow in the topside ionosphere in the vicinity of the plasmapause. In general, the solutions obtained from the 13-moment system of equations, which allows for different species temperatures parallel and perpendicular to the geomagnetic field and non-classical heat flows, are different from those obtained from the standard transport equations, which account for isotropic temperatures and classical collision-dominated heat flows. Within the plasmasphere, where the electron density is high, the differences between the 13-moment and standard solutions are typically small. However, outside the plasmasphere where the electron density is lower and in the ionosphere above SAR-arcs, where substantial electron and proton heat flows occur, there can be significant differences between the 13-moment and standard solutions. Generally, the differences are much larger for the protons than for the electrons. Our 13-moment solutions indicate that the proton and electron distributions are anisotropic with the difference between parallel and perpendicular temperatures approaching 4000 K for the protons and 2500 K for the electrons in the ionosphere above SAR-arcs. Also, above SAR-arcs the 13-moment heat flow equations yield proton heat flows as much as a factor of 10 lower and electron heat flows as much as a factor of 2 lower than those predicted by the classical collision-dominated heat flow expressions for the same boundary conditions.     

Archaean TTGs as sources of younger granitic magmas: melting of sodic metatonalites at 0.6–1.2 GPa

Two natural, low K₂O/Na₂O, TTG tonalitic gneisses (one hornblende-bearing and the other biotite-bearing) were partially melted at 0.8–1.2 GPa (fluid-absent). The chief melting reactions involve the breakdown of the biotite and hornblende. The hornblende tonalite is slightly less fertile than the biotite tonalite, but melt volumes reach around 30% at 1,000°C. This contrasts with results of most previous work on more potassic TTGs, which generally showed much lower fertility, though commonly producing more potassic melts. Garnet is formed in biotite-bearing tonalitic protoliths at P > 0.8 GPa and at > 1.0 GPa in hornblende-bearing tonalitic protoliths. All fluid-absent experiments produced peraluminous granitic to granodioritic melts, typically with SiO₂ > 70 wt.%. For the biotite tonalite, increasing T formed progressively more melt with progressively lower K₂O/Na₂O. However, the compositions of melts from the hornblende tonalite do not vary significantly with T. With increasing P, melts from the biotite tonalite become less potassic, due to the increasing thermal stability of biotite. For the hornblende tonalite, again there is no consistent trend. Fluid-absent melting of sodic TTGs produces melts with insufficient K₂O to model the magmas that formed the voluminous, late, potassic granites that are common in Archaean terranes. Reconnaissance fluid-present experiments at 0.6 GPa imply that H₂O-saturated partial melting of TTGs is also not a viable process for producing magmas that formed these granites. The protoliths for these must have been more potassic and less silicic. Nevertheless, at granulite-facies conditions, sodic TTGs will produce significant quantities of broadly leucogranodioritic melt that will be more potassic than the protoliths. Upward abstraction of this melt would result in some LILE depletion of the terrane. Younger K-rich magmatism is unlikely to represent recycling of TTG crust on its own, and it seems most likely that evolved crustal rocks and/or highly enriched mantle must be involved. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Melting of a Hydrous Mantle: I. Phase Relations of Natural Peridotite at High Pressures and Temperatures with Controlled Activities of Water, Carbon Dioxide, and Hydrogen

Four natural peridotite nodules ranging from chemically depletedto Fe-rich, alkaline and calcic (SiO₂ = 43.7–45.7 wt.per cent, A1₂O₃ = 1.6O–8.21 wt. per cent, CaO = 0.70–8.12wt. per cent, alk = 0.10–0.90 wt. per cent and Mg/(Mg+Fe²⁺)= 0.94–0.85) have been investigated in the hypersolidusregion from 800? to 1250?C with variable activities of H₂O,CO₂, and H₂. The vapor-saturated peridotite solidi are 50–200?Cbelow those previously published. The temperature of the beginningof melting of peridotite decreases markedly with decreasingMg/(Mg+SFe) of the starting material at constant CaO/Al₂O₃.Conversely, lowering CaO/Al₂O₃ reduces the temperature at constantMg/(Mg+Fe) of the starting material. Temperature differencesbetween the solidi up to 200?C are observed. All solidi displaya temperature minimum reflecting the appearance of garnet. Thisminimum shifts to lower pressure with decreasing Mg/(Mg + Fe)of the starting material. The temperature of the beginning ofmelting decreases isobarically as approximately a linear functionof the mol fraction of H₂O in the vapor (X_H2O^v). The data alsoshow that some CO₂ may dissolve in silicate melts formed bypartial melting of peridotite. Amphibole (pargasitic hornblende) is a hypersolidus mineralin all compositions, although its P/T stability field dependson bulk rock chemistry. The upper pressure stability of amphiboleis marked by the appearance of garnet. The vapor-saturated (H₂O) liquidus curve for one peridotiteis between 1250? and 1300?C between 10 and 30 kb. Olivine, spinel,and orthopyroxene are either liquidus phases or co-exist immediatelybelow the temperature of the peridotite liquidus. The data suggest considerable mineralogical heterogeneity inthe oceanic upper mantle because the oceanic geotherm passesthrough the P/T band covering the appearance of garnet in variousperidotites. The variable depth to the low-velocity zone is explained byvariable aHjo conditions in the upper mantle and possibly alsoby variations in the composition of the peridotite itself. Itis suggested that komatiite in Precambrian terrane could formby direct melting of hydrous peridotite. Such melting requiresabout 1250?C compared with 1600?C which is required for drymelting. The genesis of kimberlite can be related to partial meltingof peridotite under conditions of X_H2O^v = 0.5–0.25 (X_CO2^v= 0.5–0.75). Such activities of H₂O result in meltingat depths ranging between 125 and 175 km in the mantle. Thisrange is within the minimum depth generally accepted for theformation of kimberlite.     

The Amsterdam-St. Paul volcanic province,and the formation of low Al tholeiitic andesites

The island of St. Paul in the Indian Ocean is located on the axis of the southeastern branch of the Indian Ocean Rise, as is the similar volcano of Amsterdam, 80 km to the north. Both volcanoes and possibly part of the local ridge are formed of a high-alumina plagioclase tholeiite making this a distinctive volcanic province. Lavas with Al₂O₂ contents of 12 to 22% are directly related by plagioclase fractionation. Residual rocks are a distinctive low silica, low alumina, potassic andesite with andesine and even olligoclase feldspar. Parallel lines of evolution exist in the sea floor plagioclase tholeiites, which differ only in slightly lower tenor of Sr and potassium group elements, and in the Steens Mountain tholeiites of Oregon, which differ in their significantly higher Sr and K group elements