Interdecadal modulation of the relationship between ENSO,IPO and precipitation: insights from tree rings in Australia

Australian climate-proxy reconstructions based on tree rings from tropical and subtropical forests have not been achieved so far due to the rarity of species producing anatomically distinct annual growth rings. Our study identifies the Australian Red Cedar (Toona ciliata) as one of the most promising tree species for tree-ring research in Australasia because this species exhibits distinct annual tree rings, a prerequisite for high quality tropical dendroclimatology. Based on these preliminary studies, we were able, for the first time in subtropical and tropical Australia, to develop a statistically robust, precisely dated and annually resolved chronology back to AD1854. We show that the variability in ring widths of T. ciliata is mainly dependent on annual precipitation. The developed proxy data series contains both high- and low-frequency climate signals which can be associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO). A comparison of different data sets (Brisbane precipitation, tree rings, coral luminescence record from the Great Barrier Reef, ENSO and IPO) revealed non-stationary correlation patterns throughout the twentieth century but little instability between the new tree-ring chronology and Brisbane precipitation.     

Effects of cloud types on cloud-radiation interaction over the Asian monsoon region

This paper quantifies the sensitivity of radiation budget quantities to different cloud types over the Asian monsoon region using the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project. Multiple regression was used to estimate the radiative effects of individual cloud type. It was observed that the regression performed better when the solution was constrained with clear sky fluxes, which is evident by an improvement in R ² statistics. The sensitivity coefficients calculated for the Asian monsoon region reveal that, while the LWCRCF and SWCRF will be most vulnerable to changes in cloud cover of deep convective clouds, NETCRF will be susceptible to changes in the nimbostratus clouds. Although the cloud radiative forcing of individual cloud types are found to be similar in sign to previous global findings, their magnitudes are found to vary. It is seen that cirrus clouds play an important role in governing the radiative behavior of this region.     

Climatology of extratropical cyclones over the South American–southern oceans sector

A climatology of extratropical cyclones is presented. Extratropical cyclones, their main characteristics and their predominant tracks, as well as their interannual variability, affect weather in South America. For that purpose, a storm track database has been compiled by applying a cyclone tracking scheme to six-hourly sea level pressure fields, available from the National Center for Environmental Prediction–National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalyses II for the 1979–2003 period. The spatial distribution of the cyclogenesis frequency shows two main centers: one around Northern Argentina, Uruguay, and Southern Brazil in all seasons and the other near to the North Antarctic Peninsula. The lifetime of extratropical cyclones in the South American sector exhibits small seasonality, being typically of the order of 3.0 days during most of the year and slightly higher (3.5 days) in austral summer. The distance travelled by the cyclones formed in the South American sector tends to be smaller than the total paths found in other areas of the Southern Hemisphere. A k-mean clustering technique is used to summarize the analysis of the 25-year climatology of cyclone tracks. Three clusters were found: one storm-track cluster in Northeast Argentina; a second one west of the Andes Cordillera; and a third cluster located to the north of the Antarctic Peninsula (around the Weddell Sea). The influence of the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) in the variability of extratropical cyclones is explored, and some signals of the impacts of the variability of the AAO can be observed in the position of the extratropical cyclones around 40°S, while the impacts on the intensity is detected around 55°S.     

Prediction of Resource Volumes at Untested Locations Using Simple Local Prediction Models

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses.

Statistical models for the assessment of nitrate contamination in urban groundwater using GIS

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical models for groundwater quality assessment in urban areas using Geographic Information Systems (GIS). To develop the models, the concentrations of nitrate (expressed as nitrogen, NO₃-N), which are different according to the type of land use, well depth and distribution of rainfall, were analyzed in the Seoul (the capital of South Korea) area. Data such as land use, location of wells and groundwater quality data for nitrate contamination were collected and a database constructed within GIS. The distribution of NO₃-N concentrations is not normal, and the results of the Mann-Whitney U-test analysis show the difference of NO₃-N concentration by well depth and by distribution of rainfall. In both the shallow and deep wells, the radius of influence is 200 m in the dry season and 250 m in the rainy season, showing the tendency to increase in the rainy season. The results of correlation and regression analysis indicate that mixed residential and business areas and cropped field areas are likely to be the major contributor of increasing NO₃-N concentration. Land uses are better correlated with NO₃-N in deep wells than in shallow wells.     

Basaltic melts in olivine from alkaline pumice of Primor’e: Evidence from the study of melt inclusions

Doklady Earth Sciences -     

Methods of Hierarchical Control of Water Quality Taking into Account Manipulations of the Center and Countermoves of Enterprises

Methods of hierarchical control including manipulations of a Center and the countermove of enterprises are considered using as an example a dynamic two-level model of river water quality control in the presence of point pollution sources and in the absence of nonpoint sources.     

Range of validity of seismic ray and beam methods in general inhomogeneous media – I. General theory

Summary. The limitations of asymptotic wave theory and its geometrical manifestations are newly formalized and scrutinized. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of acoustic and seismic rays and beams in general inhomogeneous media are expressed in terms of new physical parameters: the threshold frequency ω₀ associated with the P/S decoupling condition, the cut-off frequency ω_c associated with the radiation-zone condition, the total curvature of the wavefront and the Fresnel-zone radius.
The analysis is facilitated with the introduction of a new ancillary functional – the hypereikonal which is capable of representing ordinary as well as evanescent waves. The hypereikonal is the natural extension of the eikonal theory.
With the aid of the above new parameters, simple conditions are obtained for the decoupled far field, the decoupled near field, two point dynamic ray tracing, paraxial wavefields and Gaussian beams.