Potential impacts of extreme storm surges on a low-lying densely populated coastline: the case of Dunkirk area, Northern France

Along the southern coast of the North Sea, a large proportion of the Flemish coastal plain consists of densely populated reclaimed land, much of which lying below mean high tide level. This is particularly the case along the northern coast of France, from Dunkirk to the Belgium border, where the shoreline consists of coastal dunes that protect low-lying reclaimed lands from marine flooding. This area is vulnerable and subject to several risks. Extreme weather conditions could induce strong surges that could cause (1) a shoreline retreat, (2) marine submersion and (3) land and/or urban flooding due to drainage problems of the polders. Highly energetic events such as the November 2007 storm could have had much more severe consequences especially if they occurred at high tide and/or during a spring tide. In the current context of global change and projected sea-level rise, it is then important for the local authorities to take into account the potential impacts and return periods of such events, in order to implement coastal risk policies prevention and management, to reinforce sea defense, increase pumping station efficiency and plan warning systems against marine submersion and polder flooding, which is not the case yet in Northern France.     

Parameterization of wind turbine impacts on hydrodynamics and sediment transport

Monopile foundations of offshore wind turbines modify the hydrodynamics and sediment transport at local and regional scales. The aim of this work is to assess these modifications and to parameterize them in a regional model. In the present study, this is achieved through a regional circulation model, coupled with a sediment transport module, using two approaches. One approach is to explicitly model the monopiles in the mesh as dry cells, and the other is to parameterize them by adding a drag force term to the momentum and turbulence equations. Idealised cases are run using hydrodynamical conditions and sediment grain sizes typical from the area located off Courseulles-sur-Mer (Normandy, France), where an offshore windfarm is under planning, to assess the capacity of the model to reproduce the effect of the monopile on the environment. Then, the model is applied to a real configuration on an area including the future offshore windfarm of Courseulles-sur-Mer. Four monopiles are represented in the model using both approaches, and modifications of the hydrodynamics and sediment transport are assessed over a tidal cycle. In relation to local hydrodynamic effects, it is observed that currents increase at the side of the monopile and decrease in front of and downstream of the monopile. In relation to sediment transport effect, the results show that resuspension and erosion occur around the monopile in locations where the current speed increases due to the monopile presence, and sediments deposit downstream where the bed shear stress is lower. During the tidal cycle, wakes downstream of the monopile reach the following monopile and modify the velocity magnitude and suspended sediment concentration patterns around the second monopile.     

Characterization of contact properties in biocemented sand using 3D X-ray micro-tomography

The mechanical efficiency of the biocementation process is directly related to the microstructural properties of the biocemented sand, such as the volume fraction of calcite, its distribution within the pore space (localized at the contact between grains, over the grain surfaces) and the contact properties: coordination number, contact surface area, contacts orientation and types of contact. In the present work, all these micromechanical properties are computed, for the first time, from 3D images obtained by X-ray tomography of intact biocemented sand samples. The evolution of all these properties with respect to the volume fraction of calcite is analyzed and compared between each other (from untreated sand to highly cemented sand). Whatever the volume fraction of calcite, it is shown that the precipitation of the calcite is localized at the contacts between grains. These results are confirmed by comparing our numerical results with analytical estimates assuming that the granular medium is made of periodic simple cubic arrangements of grains and by considering two extreme cases of precipitation: (1) The calcite is localized at the contact, and (2) the grains are covered by a uniform layer of calcite. In overall, the obtained results show that a small percentage of calcite is sufficient to get a large amount of cohesive contacts.

     

Characterization of microstructural and physical properties changes in biocemented sand using 3D X-ray microtomography

An experimental study has been performed to investigate the effect of the biocalcification process on the microstructural and the physical properties of biocemented Fontainebleau sand samples. The microstructural properties (porosity, volume fraction of calcite, total specific surface area, specific surface area of calcite, etc.) and the physical properties (permeability, effective diffusion) of the biocemented samples were computed for the first time from 3D images with a high-resolution images obtained by X-ray synchrotron microtomography. The evolution of all these properties with respect to the volume fraction of calcite is analysed and compared with success to experimental data, when it is possible. In general, our results point out that all the properties are strongly affected by the biocalcification process. Finally, all these numerical results from 3D images and experimental data were compared to numerical values or analytical estimates computed on idealized microstructures constituted of periodic overlapping and random non-overlapping arrangements of coated spheres. These comparisons show that these simple microstructures are sufficient to capture and to predict the main evolution of both microstructural and physical properties of biocemented sands for the whole range of volume fraction of calcite investigated.     

Faecal-indicator bacteria and sedimentary processes in estuarine mudflats (Seine, France)

Over a three-year period, quantification of faecal indicators and the molecular detection of Escherichia coli and Salmonella were monitored in sediments from three contrasting mudflats of the Seine estuary (France). The elevation of the mudflat surface was monitored concurrently using a high-resolution altimeter. During the period of the study, estuarine mudflats were areas of deposition for faecal-indicator bacteria and were mainly controlled by sedimentary processes. In the intertidal freshwater and subtidal mudflats, the highest abundances of faecal-indicator bacteria were counted during a depositional period. Maximum levels were observed in the freshwater mudflats during periods of high flow: thermotolerant coliforms: 3.9 x 10(4) cfu cm(-2), enterococci: 1.2 x 10(4) cfu cm(-2), Clostridium perfringens spores: 9.8 x 10(5) spores cm(-2). Loss of culturability of enteric bacteria in sediment microcosms demonstrated the remediatory capacity of the mudflats, even if they might be a secondary source of bacteria-forming spores to the water column through erosion and resuspension events.     

Adaptation of the optimal fingerprint method for climate change detection using a well-conditioned covariance matrix estimate

The “optimal fingerprint” method, usually used for detection and attribution studies, requires to know, or, in practice, to estimate the covariance matrix of the internal climate variability. In this work, a new adaptation of the “optimal fingerprints” method is presented. The main goal is to allow the use of a covariance matrix estimate based on an observation dataset in which the number of years used for covariance estimation is close to the number of observed time series. Our adaptation is based on the use of a regularized estimate of the covariance matrix, that is well-conditioned, and asymptotically more precise, in the sense of the mean square error. This method is shown to be more powerful than the basic “guess pattern fingerprint”, and than the classical use of a pseudo-inverted truncation of the empirical covariance matrix. The construction of the detection test is achieved by using a bootstrap technique particularly well-suited to estimate the internal climate variability in real world observations. In order to validate the efficiency of the detection algorithm with climate data, the methodology presented here is first applied with pseudo-observations derived from transient regional climate change scenarios covering the 1960–2099 period. It is then used to perform a formal detection study of climate change over France, analyzing homogenized observed temperature series from 1900 to 2006. In this case, the estimation of the covariance matrix is only based on a part of the observation dataset. This new approach allows the confirmation and extension of previous results regarding the detection of an anthropogenic climate change signal over the country.     

Social acceptability of a marine protected area: The case of Reunion Island

This paper examines variations in social acceptability of a Marine Protected Area (MPA) prior to implementation. The influence of a number of factors, including socio-economic characteristics, perception of coral resources state of health and attitudes towards non-compliance with regulations are analysed. During May 2006, 640 questionnaires were distributed to school children around Reunion Island, Western Indian Ocean, for completion by their parents, following an informal educational activity made in school. From a 73% (n = 469) response rate, results showed that 78% of participants were in favour of the MPA. Analysis further identified that those supportive of the MPA were generally from higher socio-professional categories, had a negative perception of the coral reef ecosystem's health and were not originally from Reunion. In contrast, locals (born in Reunion) from lower socio-professional categories or with no employment activity and having a positive perception of the health status of coral reefs offered no opinion on the MPA. Attitudes towards enforcement and compliance highlighted that SCUBA divers, fishers and jet skiers attributed a higher value to the protection of the coral reef environment through enforcement of MPA regulations than to their own use of the coral reef resource. When asked about the use of penalties to deter non-compliance, swimmers were awarded the lowest fines, followed by SCUBA divers, fishers then jet skiers being awarded the highest fines. Thus, the more severe the act of non-compliance by a resource user group was perceived to be, the more these users themselves disapproved of non-compliant behaviour and supported use of high penalties. The survey design through focusing on school children's parents, demonstrated a simple and cost-effective method for data collection while providing environmental education, which could be employed in similar case studies elsewhere.     

Bayesian comparison of different rainfall depth–duration–frequency relationships

Depth–duration–frequency curves estimate the rainfall intensity patterns for various return periods and rainfall durations. An empirical model based on the generalized extreme value distribution is presented for hourly maximum rainfall, and improved by the inclusion of daily maximum rainfall, through the extremal indexes of 24 hourly and daily rainfall data. The model is then divided into two sub-models for the short and long rainfall durations. Three likelihood formulations are proposed to model and compare independence or dependence hypotheses between the different durations. Dependence is modelled using the bivariate extreme logistic distribution. The results are calculated in a Bayesian framework with a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The application to a data series from Marseille shows an improvement of the hourly estimations thanks to the combination between hourly and daily data in the model. Moreover, results are significantly different with or without dependence hypotheses: the dependence between 24 and 72 h durations is significant, and the quantile estimates are more severe in the dependence case.     

Holocene hydrological changes in south-western Mediterranean as recorded by lake-level fluctuations at Lago Preola,a coastal lake in southern Sicily,Italy

This paper presents a high-resolution lake-level record for the Holocene at Lago Preola (Sicily, southern Italy) based on a specific sedimentological approach, with a chronology derived from AMS radiocarbon dates. It gives evidence of three major successive palaeohydrological periods, with (1) a pronounced dryness during the early Holocene until ca 10300 cal BP, (2) a highstand from ca 10300 to 4500 cal BP, and (3) a marked lowstand from 4500 cal BP to present. Large amplitude lake-level fluctuations characterise two transition phases at ca 10300–9000 and 6400–4500 cal BP. Period 2 was interrupted between 8300 and 7000 cal BP by a dry phase that was punctuated to ca 7300 cal BP by the deposition of a tephra from neighbouring Pantelleria Island. Comparisons of the Preola record with other palaeohydrological records along north–south and west–east transects in the Mediterranean show contrasting patterns of hydrological changes: north (south) of around 40°N latitude, the records highlight a mid-Holocene period characterised by lake-level minima (maxima). Humid mid-Holocene conditions over the Mediterranean south of 40°N were probably linked to a strong weakening of the Hadley cell circulation and of monsoon winds. We suggest that the maximum of humidity in the Mediterranean during the mid-Holocene was characterised by humid winters to the north of 40°N and humid summers to the south. On a multi-centennial scale, the high-resolution palaeohydrological reconstructions in the central Mediterranean area reveal a strong climate reversal around 4500–4000 cal BP, with contrasting changes in the hydrological cycle. In addition to seasonal and inter-hemispherical changes related to orbital forcing, this major oscillation might be related to non-linear responses of the climatic system to the gradual decrease in summer insolation at northern latitudes. Another major climate oscillation around 7500–7000 cal BP may have resulted from the combined effects of (1) a strong rate of change in insolation, and (2) variations in solar activity. Finally, comparisons of the Preola lake-level record with Sicilian pollen records suggest a strong influence of moisture availability on vegetation development in Sicily. Very dry early Holocene conditions probably prevented the expansion of coastal evergreen forests, while decreasing moisture availability since the onset of the late Holocene may have exacerbated effects of intensive land-use.     

Hypersaline fluids generated by high-grade metamorphism of evaporites: fluid inclusion study of uranium occurrences in the Western Zambian Copperbelt

In the Pan-African Lufilian belt (Western Zambian Copperbelt), uranium mineralizations, preferentially scattered in kyanite ± talc micaschists (metamorphosed evaporitic sediments) or concentrated along transposed quartz veins provide an opportunity to (1) understand the time/space relationship between the ore minerals and the deformation of the host rocks, (2) identify the different fluid events associated with specific stages of quartz deformation and (3) characterize the ore fluid geochemistry in terms of fluid origin and fluid/rock interactions. In the U occurrences studied in Lolwa and Mitukuluku (Domes region, Western Zambian Copperbelt), two mineralizing stages are described. The first generation of ore fluids (53–59 wt% CaCl₂, 13–15 wt% NaCl; N₂–H₂ in the gas phase of fluid inclusions) circulated during the high-temperature quartz recrystallization, at 500–700 °C. This temperature is in agreement with the P–T conditions recorded during the crustal thickening related to continental collision at ca. 530 Ma. LA-ICPMS analyses show the presence of uranium within this fluid, with a concentration mode around 20 ppm. The second generation of ore fluid (21–32 wt% NaCl, 19–21 wt% CaCl₂; CO₂–CO in the gas phase of fluid inclusions) percolated at lower temperature conditions, at the brittle–ductile transition, between 200 and 300 °C. This temperature could be related to the exhumation of the high-grade metamorphic rocks at ca. 500 Ma. The formation of H₂ and CO is interpreted as the result of radiolysis in the presence of dissolved uranium in the aqueous phase of these fluid inclusions. Finally, a late fluid (14–16 wt% NaCl_equiv) circulated in the brittle domain but seems unrelated to U (re-)mobilization event.