Identification of precipitation zones within São Francisco River basin (Brazil) by global wavelet power spectra

Abstract

The definition of rainfall behaviour at the regional level is of great importance in planning policy for the rational use of water resources for both agricultural and urban uses. It allows the delimitation of areas of homogeneous rainfall features and shows the system dynamics in the area, so providing more comprehensive knowledge about the rainfall. Precipitation zones were identified within the São Francisco River basin, Northeast Brazil, by analysing the rainfall frequencies by means of global wavelet power spectra. Data from 200 raingauges were analysed and the results of the overall power spectra showed a high annual frequency throughout the basin; however, other frequencies are present with minor significance that represent changes in the rainfall regime. Although, the computed global wavelet power spectra presented an annual frequency, they showed peculiar patterns (denoted A and B) that could be used to characterize the region. Thus, three sub-regions with homogeneous rainfall patterns were identified as: Region A (south part of the basin) and Region B (north part of the basin), with frequency patterns A and B, respectively, and a Transition Zone in the central part that shows both frequency patterns.

Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Morais, B.S., 2013. Identification of precipitation zones within São Francisco River basin (Brazil) by global wavelet power spectra. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58 (4), 789–796.     

Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models

Abstract

New wavelet and artificial neural network (WA) hybrid models are proposed for daily streamflow forecasting at 1, 3, 5 and 7 days ahead, based on the low-frequency components of the original signal (approximations). The results show that the proposed hybrid models give significantly better results than the classical artificial neural network (ANN) model for all tested situations. For short-term (1-day ahead) forecasts, information on higher-frequency signal components was essential to ensure good model performance. However, for forecasting more days ahead, lower-frequency components are needed as input to the proposed hybrid models. The WA models also proved to be effective for eliminating the lags often seen in daily streamflow forecasts obtained by classical ANN models. 

Editor D. Koutsoyiannis; Associate editor L. See

Citation Santos, C.A.G. and Silva, G.B.L., 2013. Daily streamflow forecasting using a wavelet transform and artificial neural network hybrid models. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 59 (2), 312–324.     

Consequences on water retention properties of double-porosity features in a compacted silt

The paper deals with an experimental investigation aimed at studying microstructural features and their consequences on water retention properties of statically compacted unsaturated silt. The evolution of the microstructure of the aggregate fabric induced by compaction is investigated by studying the pore size distribution changes under different initial conditions (void ratio and water content). The material used is low plasticity silt from Jossigny near Paris, France. A series of mercury intrusion porosimetry tests (MIP) were performed at different void ratios and water contents to provide microstructural information. The arrangement of aggregation/particles and pore network was also investigated with environmental scanning electron microscopy (ESEM). The MIP data were used to determine the water retention curve on drying for the specific pore network configuration induced on compaction. The MIP data were used to formulate and calibrate a multimodal water retention model for a specific pore network configuration, which is obtained by linear superposition of subcurves of a modified van Genuchten type. The study is then complemented with controlled suction oedometer tests on compacted samples to obtain the water retention properties of the material at two different void ratios. Finally, we compare the water retention properties obtained by the simulated progression of the different pore network configurations induced on the hydraulic path with the water retention properties under suction-controlled conditions. Good agreement between the two methods for the drying path is reached.     

IT-OSRA: applying ensemble simulations to estimate the oil spill risk associated to operational and accidental oil spills

Oil Spill Risk Assessments (OSRAs) are widely employed to support decision making regarding oil spill risks. This article adapts the ISO-compliant OSRA framework developed by Sepp Neves et al. (J Environ Manag 159:158–168, 2015) to estimate risks in a complex scenario where uncertainties related to the meteo-oceanographic conditions, where and how a spill could happen exist and the risk computation methodology is not yet well established (ensemble oil spill modeling). The improved method was applied to the Algarve coast, Portugal. Over 50,000 simulations were performed in 2 ensemble experiments to estimate the risks due to operational and accidental spill scenarios associated with maritime traffic. The level of risk was found to be important for both types of scenarios, with significant seasonal variations due to the the currents and waves variability. Higher frequency variability in the meteo-oceanographic variables were also found to contribute to the level of risk. The ensemble results show that the distribution of oil concentrations found on the coast is not Gaussian, opening up new fields of research on how to deal with oil spill risks and related uncertainties.     

Spatial and temporal variability of seawater properties,current velocity and SPM concentration off Cassino Beach-Rio Grande-Southern Brazil

Water column profiles and near-bed time series of pressure, current velocity, suspended-particulate matter (SPM) concentration and seawater temperature and salinity were collected during three short cruises carried out in May 2005 in the shoreface and inner shelf area adjacent to Cassino Beach, southern Brazil. The measurements were part of the Cassino Experiment, a project conducted at an open, sandy coastal area known for the occurrence of patches of fairly large amounts of muddy sediments that are sporadically fluidized, transported onshore and eventually stranded on the beach. The study area is close to the Patos Lagoon mouth, being influenced by its water and suspended-sediment discharge. The presence of the Patos Lagoon outflow on the inner shelf was detected in one of the cruises (May 13) through measurements of near-surface salinity: while close to shore salinity was 29.4, a minimum value of 13.8 was measured at ∼10 km from the coast. Four days later, no trace of the plume was detected in the area. Regarding seawater temperature, no large temporal or spatial variability was documented with measured values ranging from 19.3 to 20 °C. Water column currents were prominently to N and NE, except at the outermost station, located ∼42 km from the coast, where NW-directed flows were observed at surface and mid-depth. Maximum near-bed current velocity oscillated between 18 and 42 cm s⁻¹ in the east–west direction and between 14 and 42 cm s⁻¹ in the north–south direction. Near-surface concentration of SPM oscillated between 11 and 99 mg L⁻¹, in general one order of magnitude lower than near-bed values. However, near-bed concentration of SPM showed large spatial variability: the highest value (2200 mg L⁻¹) was yielded by a water sample collected at ∼8 m water depth, at a station located ∼2 km away from the shoreline; two water samples collected 500 m, apart from this station, yielded SPM concentrations of 148 and 205 mg L⁻¹, one order of magnitude lower. Spectral analyses of near-bed current speed and SPM concentration indicate the relevance of oscillations in the low-frequency (<0.05 Hz) range. Detailed sampling of bottom sediment indicated that in May 2005 the mud patch was centered at ∼8.5 m water depth.     

Evaluating and classifying contaminated areas based on loss functions using annealing simulations

This paper presents a methodology based on geostatistical theory for quantifying the risks associated with heavy-metal contamination in the harbor area of Santana, Amapá State, Northern Brazil. In this area there were activities related to the commercialization of manganese ore from Serra do Navio. Manganese and arsenic concentrations at unsampled sites were estimated by postprocessing results from stochastic annealing simulations; the simulations were used to test different criteria for optimization, including average, median, and quantiles. For classifying areas as contaminated or uncontaminated, estimated quantiles based on functions of asymmetric loss showed better results than did estimates based on symmetric loss, such as the average or the median. The use of specific loss functions in the decision-making process can reduce the costs of remediation and health maintenance. The highest global health costs were observed for manganese.     

Vertical-axis rotations and deformation along the active strike-slip El Tigre Fault (Precordillera of San Juan,Argentina) assessed through palaeomagnetism and anisotropy of magnetic susceptibility

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Palaeomagnetic data from poorly consolidated to non-consolidated late Cenozoic sediments along the central segment of the active El Tigre Fault...     

Modelling δC and δO in the solution layer on stalagmite surfaces

We derive equations describing the evolution of the carbon and oxygen isotope composition of the bicarbonate in a calcite precipitating solution on the surface of a stalagmite using a classical Rayleigh approach. The combined effects of calcite precipitation, degassing of CO₂ and the buffering effect of the water reservoir are taken into account. Whereas δ¹³C shows a progressive increase to a final constant value, δ¹⁸O shows an initial isotopic enrichment, which exponentially decays due to the buffering effect of the water reservoir. The calculated evolution is significantly different for both carbon and oxygen isotopes than derived in a recent paper [Dreybrodt W. (2008) Evolution of the isotopic composition of carbon and oxygen in a calcite precipitating H₂O-CO₂-CaCO₃ solution and the related isotopic composition of calcite in stalagmites. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta72, 4712-4724.].Furthermore, we discuss the isotopic evolution of the bicarbonate in the solution for long residence times on the stalagmite surface, i.e., for t→∞. The equilibrium isotope ratio of the bicarbonate is then determined by isotopic exchange between the cave atmosphere and the bicarbonate in the solution and can be calculated by equilibrium isotope fractionation. For strongly ventilated caves exchange with the cave atmosphere will result in higher δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values than those observed in a pure Rayleigh distillation scenario, for sparsely ventilated caves it will result in lower δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O values.     

Large scale features and energetics of the hybrid subtropical low ‘Duck’ over the Tasman Sea

New aspects of the genesis and partial tropical transition of a rare hybrid subtropical cyclone on the eastern Australian coast are presented. The ‘Duck’ (March 2001) attracted more recent attention due to its underlying genesis mechanisms being remarkably similar to the first South Atlantic hurricane (March 2004). Here we put this cyclone in climate perspective, showing that it belongs to a class within the 1 % lowest frequency percentile in the Southern Hemisphere as a function of its thermal evolution. A large scale analysis reveals a combined influence from an existing tropical cyclone and a persistent mid-latitude block. A Lagrangian tracer showed that the upper level air parcels arriving at the cyclone’s center had been modified by the blocking. Lorenz energetics is used to identify connections with both tropical and extratropical processes, and reveal how these create the large scale environment conducive to the development of the vortex. The results reveal that the blocking exerted the most important influence, with a strong peak in barotropic generation of kinetic energy over a large area traversed by the air parcels just before genesis. A secondary peak also coincided with the first time the cyclone developed an upper level warm core, but with insufficient amplitude to allow for a full tropical transition. The applications of this technique are numerous and promising, particularly on the use of global climate models to infer changes in environmental parameters associated with severe storms.     

Partitioning of rainfall in a cocoa (Theobroma cacao lour.) plantation

To consolidate knowledge of some aspects of the partitioning of incident rainfall into throughfall, stemflow and interception loss, a study was made in a typical cocoa (Theobroma cacao Lour.) plantation in south-east Bahia, Brazil. The samples were collected, on a per shower basis, from locations at different levels in the canopy over a period of two and a half years. During the period studied, of the amount of incident rainfall reaching the cocoa plantation, on average 16% was retained by shelter trees, 19% by cocoa trees and 9% by the ground litter. Losses due to interception caused some variations and were mainly regulated by temporal variations and by the amount and intensity of rainfall in the plantation. The amount of rainfall intercepted, as determined in this study, is comparable with other tropical stands, but important differences do exist and are believed to be influenced by the previous level of moisture availability within the cocoa plantation.