Assessment of future changes in the maximum temperature at selected stations in Iran based on HADCM3 and CGCM3 models

Identification and assessment of climate change in the next decades with the aim of appropriate environmental planning in order to adapt and mitigate its effects are quite necessary. In this study, maximum temperature changes of Iran were comparatively examined in two future periods (2041-2070 and 2071-2099) and based on the two general circulation model outputs (CGCM3 and HADCM3) and under existing emission scenarios (A2, A1B, B1 and B2). For this purpose, after examining the ability of statistical downscaling method of SDSM in simulation of the observational period (1981-2010), the daily maximum temperature of future decades was downscaled by considering the uncertainty in seven synoptic stations as representatives of climate in Iran. In uncertainty analysis related to model-scenarios, it was found that CGCM3 model under scenario B1 had the best performance about the simulation of future maximum temperature among all of the examined scenario-models. The findings also showed that the maximum temperature at study stations will be increased between 1°C and 2°C in the middle and the end of 21st century. Also this maximum temperature changes is more severe in the HADCM3 model than the CGCM3 model.     

Groundwater Discharge as a Source of Dissolved Carbon and Greenhouse Gases in a Subtropical Estuary

Groundwater may be highly enriched in dissolved carbon species, but its role as a source of carbon to coastal waters is still poorly constrained. Exports of deep and shallow groundwater-derived dissolved carbon species from a small subtropical estuary (Korogoro Creek, Australia, latitude ?31.0478°, longitude 153.0649°) were quantified using a radium isotope mass balance model (²³³Ra and ²²⁴Ra, natural groundwater tracers) under two hydrological conditions. In addition, air-water exchange of carbon dioxide and methane in the estuary was estimated. The highest carbon inputs to the estuary were from deep fresh groundwater in the wet season. Most of the dissolved carbon delivered by groundwater and exported from the estuary to the coastal ocean was in the form of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC; 687 mmol m^?2 estuary day^?1; 20 mmol m^?2 catchment day^?1, respectively), with a large export of alkalinity (23 mmol m^?2 catchment day^?1). Average water to air flux of CO₂ (869 mmol m^?2 day^?1) and CH₄ (26 mmol m^?2 day^?1) were 5- and 43-fold higher, respectively, than the average global evasion in estuaries due to the large input of CO₂- and CH₄-enriched groundwater. The groundwater discharge contribution to carbon exports from the estuary for DIC, dissolved organic carbon (DOC), alkalinity, CO₂, and CH₄ was 22, 41, 3, 75, and 100 %, respectively. The results show that CO₂ and CH₄ evasion rates from small subtropical estuaries surrounded by wetlands can be extremely high and that groundwater discharge had a major role in carbon export and evasion from the estuary and therefore should be accounted for in coastal carbon budgets.     

A laboratory investigation of bed-load transport of gravel sediments under dam break flow

Dam break flows and resulting river bed erosion can have disastrous impacts on human safety,infrastructure,and environmental quality.However,there is a lack of research on the mobility of non-uniform sediment mixtures resulting from dam break flows and how these differ from uniform sized sediment.In this paper,laboratory flume experiments revealed that coarse and fine fractions in non-uniform sediment had a higher and a lower bed-load parameter,respectively,than uniform sediments of the same size.Thus,the finer fractions were more stable and the coarser fractions were more erodible in a nonuniform bed compared to a uniform-grained bed.These differences can be explained by the hiding and protrusion of these fractions,respectively.By investigating changes in mobility of the mixed-size fractions with reservoir water levels,the results revealed that at low water levels,when the coarser fractions were only just mobile,the bed-load parameter of the finer fractions was higher than the coarser fractions.The opposite was observed at a higher water level,when a significant proportion of the coarsest fractions was mobilized.The higher protrusion of these grains had an important effect on their mobility relative to the finer grains.The transported sediment on these mixed-sized beds was coarser than the initial bed sediment,and became coarser with an increase in reservoir water level.     

The CERES‐Rice Model‐Based Estimates of Potential Monsoon Season Rainfed Rice Productivity in Bangladesh*

Agricultural practices in Bangladesh are largely dependent on the monsoonal rainfall. Historically, Bangladesh often experiences severe droughts and floods during the monsoon months, with significant crop losses during both extreme conditions. This article provides a quantitative assessment of potential monsoon‐season aman rice for four transplanting dates: 1 June, 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August. A crop‐growth simulation model, the CERES‐Rice, is applied to sixteen locations representing major rice‐growing regions of Bangladesh to determine baseline yield estimates for four transplanting dates. The applications were conducted for 1975 through 1987. Average potential yield in Bangladesh is 6,907, 5,039, 3,637, and 1,762 kg ha^?1 for the above transplanting dates, respectively. In other words, Bangladesh would obtain 27 percent, 48 percent, and 75 percent less yield for 1 July, 15 July, and 15 August transplanting, respectively, than for 1 June transplanting. Potential yield vulnerability is the least for 1 June transplanting (up to 5 percent) and the highest (up to 66 percent) for 15 July transplanting date. The model applications show that regional variations exist for potential yield and yield vulnerability for a particular transplanting date. In addition, response of yield and vulnerability for a region changes with transplanting dates.     

Investigation of Headcut Erosion in Cohesive Soils

Headcut, known as knickpoint migration too, is developed due to sudden change in channel bed followed by bed scour and erosion which progressing upstream. The results are the downstream morphological change and transporting massive sediment to the downstream reservoir. Most of the past studies focus on non-cohesive soils, although many problems occur because of cohesive soils. In this study, 10 different samples of cohesive soils in long term consolidation with different composition of silt and clay were tested under different circumstances of waterfall height and flow velocity to investigate the neck migration rate and the sediment yield. Tests were continued to reach a constant migration rate. One of the effective phenomena in all tests was tensional cracks on soil surface. The size and number of these cracks have inverse relation with percent of clay. Because of these cracks, massive erosion occurs at the beginning of all tests. By reducing percent of clay, headcut, waterfall height and sediment yield were increased and by reducing waterfall height and flow velocity these parameters were reduced. In lower percent of clay, headcut erosion will occur quickly with more slants. Caving phenomenon was not observed in any tests and massive erosion rate was more quickly.     

Geo-Spatial Dynamics of Snow Cover and Hydro-Meteorological Parameters of Hunza Basin,HKH Region,Pakistan

Water Resources - Snow cover dynamics play an important role in the hydrological characteristics of Upper Indus Basin (UIB) of Pakistan in terms of seasonal accumulation and depletions. The current...