Impact of 3D Var GSI-ENKF hybrid data assimilation system

The hybrid two-way coupled 3DEnsVar assimilation system was tested with the NCMRWF global data assimilation forecasting system. At present, this system consists of T574L64 deterministic model and the grid-point statistical interpolation analysis scheme. In this experiment, the analysis system is modified with a two-way coupling with an 80 member Ensemble Kalman Filter of T254L64 resolution and runs are carried out in parallel to the operational system for the Indian summer monsoon season (June–September) for the year 2015 to study its impact. Both the assimilation systems are based on NCEP GFS system. It is found that hybrid assimilation marginally improved the quality of the forecasts of all variables over the deterministic 3D Var system, in terms of statistical skill scores and also in terms of circulation features. The impact of the hybrid system in prediction of extreme rainfall and cyclone track is discussed.     

Geomorphic observations from southwestern terminus of Palghat Gap,south India and their tectonic implications

The region around Wadakkancheri, Trichur District, Kerala is known for microseismic activity, since 1989. Studies, subsequent to 2nd December 1994 (M =4.3) earthquake, identified a south dipping active fault (Desamangalam Fault) that may have influenced the course of Bharathapuzha River. The ongoing seismicity is concentrated on southeast of Wadakkancheri and the present study concentrated further south of Desamangalam Fault. The present study identifies the northwestern continuity of NW–SE trending Periyar lineament, which appears to have been segmented in the area. To identify the subtle landform modifications induced by ongoing tectonic adjustments, we focused on morphometric analysis. The NW–SE trending lineaments appear to be controlling the sinuosity of smaller rivers in the area, and most of the elongated drainage basins follow the same trend. The anomalies shown in conventional morphometric parameters, used for defining basins, are also closely associated with the NW–SE trending Periyar lineament/s. A number of brittle faults that appear to have been moved are consistent with the present stress regime and these are identified along the NW–SE trending lineaments. The current seismic activities also coincide with the zone of these lineaments as well as at the southeastern end of Periyar lineament. These observations suggest that the NW–SE trending Periyar lineaments/faults may be responding to the present N–S trending compressional stress regime and reflected as the subtle readjustments of the drainage configuration in the area.     

Modelling discontinuous well log signal to identify lithological boundaries via wavelet analysis: An example from KTB borehole data

Identification of sharp and discontinuous lithological boundaries from well log signal stemming from heterogeneous subsurface structures assumes a special significance in geo-exploration studies. Well log data acquired from various geological settings generally display nonstationary/nonlinear characteristics with varying wavelengths and frequencies. Modelling of such complex well-log signals using the conventional signal processing techniques either fails to catch-up abrupt boundaries or at the best, do not provide precise information on insidious lithological discontinuities. In this paper, we have proposed a new wavelet transform-based algorithm to model the abrupt discontinuous changes from well log data by taking care of nonstationary characteristics of the signal. Prior to applying the algorithm on the geophysical well data, we analyzed the distribution of wavelet coefficients using synthetic signal generated by the first order nonstationary auto-regressive model and then applied the method on actual well log dataset obtained from the KTB bore hole, Germany. Besides identifying the formation of layered boundaries, the underlying method also maps some additional formation boundaries, which were hitherto undetected at the KTB site. The results match well with known geological lithostratigraphy and will be useful for constraining the future model of KTB bore hole data.     

Competing impact of anthropogenic emissions and meteorology on the distribution of trace gases over Indian region

The spatial distribution of trace gases exhibit large spatial heterogeneity over the Indian region with an elevated pollution loading over densely populated Gangetic Plains (IGP). The contending role and importance of anthropogenic emissions and meteorology in deciding the trace gases level and distribution over Indian region, however, is poorly investigated. In this paper, we use an online regional chemistry transport model (WRF/Chem) to simulate the spatial distribution of trace gases over Indian region during one representative month of only three meteorological seasons namely winter, spring/summer and monsoon. The base simulation, using anthropogenic emissions from SEAC⁴RS inventory, is used to simulate the general meteorological conditions and the realistic spatial distribution of trace gases. A sensitivity simulation is conducted after removing the spatial heterogeneity in the anthropogenic emissions, i.e., with spatially uniform emissions to decouple the role of anthropogenic emissions and meteorology and their role in controlling the distribution of trace gases over India. The concentration levels of Ozone, CO, SO₂ and NO₂ were found to be lower over IGP when the emissions are uniform over India. A comparison of the base run with the sensitivity run highlights that meteorology plays a dominant role in controlling the spatial distribution of relatively longer-lived species like CO and secondary species like Ozone while short-lived species like NO_X and SO₂ are predominantly controlled by the spatial variability in anthropogenic emissions over the Indian region.