Alpine paleostress reconstruction and active faulting in Western Iberia

The study of intraplate tectonics is crucial for understanding the deformation within plates, far from active plate boundaries and associated stress transmission to the plate interiors. This paper examines the tectonic evolution of the Variscan basement at the western margin of the Cenozoic Duero basin. Located east of the Vilariça Fault System in NW Iberia, this intraplate zone is a relatively flat but elevated area with an intense NNE-SSW trending fault system and associated moderate seismicity. Although the area has played an important role in the Duero basin configuration, its Alpine to present-day tectonic evolution has not been well constrained. In order to characterize the successive paleostress fields, 1428 pairs of fault-striae were measured at 56 sites and two focal mechanisms were used. Stress inversion methods have been applied to analyze paleostress regimes. Results show the existence of three dominant maximum horizontal stress (Shmax) trends: N-S, NE-SW and E-W. Relative and absolute dating of the activated faults for each Shmax shows that the clearly predominant N-S paleostress field in the zone has been active since the Oligocene up to the present day; while a NE-SW stress field is found to have been active during the Cretaceous and an older E-W paleostress field was active in the earlier Alpine cycle (Late Triassic).     

Ongoing research on seismic safety assessment

Research on seismic safety assessment has been the centre of great interest among the scientific community in recent years. Although the devastating impact of earthquakes on current society should be incentive enough to increase research, the development of more realistic mechanical behaviour models and the continuous enhancement of computation capabilities are paramount factors contributing a great deal to the increase of such interest. In this context, three research areas can be identified as currently leading to important developments: code related research, especially in Europe where new design codes are in the implementation process; risk analysis, namely concerning the definition of methodologies for safety assessment that involve the evaluation of the failure probability and could be included in future generations of codes; and experimental characterization of constitutive laws which provides support for the development and calibration of accurate and realistic numerical models for seismic analysis and for the adequate characterization of limit state capacities. The paper will present some of the current scientific research trends on these three seismic safety assessment related topics. Studies addressing the seismic safety assessment of structures, either probabilistically or based on code provisions, and that consider realistic nonlinear mechanical behaviour models will be focussed. Reference will also be made to experimental research on the seismic behaviour of structural elements, emphasizing its crucial role to support the development of numerical models simulating the effects of different seismic strengthening techniques. Finally, given the development of studies leading to new trends and perspectives for performance based earthquake engineering, a possible scenario for seismic design in the future is presented, emphasizing the key issues for its implementation.     

An evaluation of solar radiation pressure strategies for the GPS constellation

The subtle effects of different Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite force models are becoming apparent now that mature processing strategies are reaching new levels of accuracy and precision. For this paper, we tested several approaches to solar radiation pressure (SRP) modeling that are commonly used by International GNSS Service (IGS) analysis centers. These include the GPS Solar Pressure Model (GSPM; Bar-Sever and Kuang in The Interplanetary Network Progress Report 42-160, 2005) and variants of the so-called DYB model (Springer et al. in Adv Space Res 23:673–676, 1999). Our results show that currently observed differences between GPS orbit solutions from the various IGS analysis centers are in large part explained by differences between their respective approaches to modeling SRP. DYB-based strategies typically generate orbit solutions that have the smallest differences with respect to the IGS final combined solution, largely because the DYB approach is most commonly used by the contributing analysis centers. However, various internal and external metrics, including ambiguity resolution statistics and satellite laser ranging observations, support continued use of the GSPM-based approach for precise orbit determination of the GPS constellation, at least when using the GIPSY-OASIS software.     

Agricultural risk management policies under climate uncertainty

Climate change is forecasted to increase the variability of weather conditions and the frequency of extreme events. Due to potential adverse impacts on crop yields it will have implications for demand of agricultural risk management instruments and farmers’ adaptation strategies. Evidence on climate change impacts on crop yield variability and estimates of production risk from farm surveys in Australia, Canada and Spain, are used to analyse the policy choice between three different types of insurance (individual, area-yield and weather index) and ex post payments. The results are found to be subject to strong uncertainties and depend on the risk profile of different farmers and locations; the paper provides several insights on how to analyse these complexities. In general, area yield performs best more often across our countries and scenarios, in particular for the baseline and marginal climate change (without increases in extreme events). However, area yield can be very expensive if farmers have limited information on how climate change affects yields (misalignment in expectations), and particularly so under extreme climate change scenarios. In these more challenging cases, ex post payments perform well to increase low incomes when the risk is systemic like in Australia; Weather index performs well to reduce the welfare costs of risks when the correlation between yields and index is increased by the extreme events. The paper also analyses the robustness of different instruments in the face of limited knowledge of the probabilities of different climate change scenarios; highlighting that this added layer of uncertainty could be overcome to provide sound policy advice under uncertainties introduced by climate change. The role of providing information to farmers on impacts of climate change emerges as a crucial result of this paper as indicated by the significantly higher budgetary expenditures occurring across all instruments when farmers’ expectations are misaligned relative to actual impacts of climate change.     

Comparative efficiency analysis of different nonlinear modelling strategies to simulate the biaxial response of RC columns

The performance of different nonlinear modelling strategies to simulate the response of RC columns subjected to axial load combined with cyclic biaxial horizontal loading is compared. The models studied are classified into two categories according to the nonlinearity distribution assumed in the elements: lumped-plasticity and distributed inelasticity. For this study, results of tests on 24 columns subjected to cyclic uniaxial and biaxial lateral displacements were numerically reproduced. The analyses show that the global envelope response is satisfactorily represented with the three modelling strategies, but significant differences were found in the strength degradation for higher drift demands and energy dissipation.     

Non-destructive microtomography-based imaging and measuring laboratory-induced degradation of travertine, a random heterogeneous geomaterial used in urban heritage

The aim of this study is to apply X-ray microfocus computed microtomography (μ-XCT), a promising non-destructive 3D microscopy imaging technique, based on measurements of X-ray linear path attenuation coefficient, in order to study a Portuguese travertine, a random heterogeneous geomaterial used in urban heritage constructions. This study evaluates the impact of soluble sulphate salt–induced decay phenomena on texture characteristics at a micrometric scale. This is done to better describing, imaging, measuring and understanding the impact of an artificially induced sulphate-decay process on petrographic/petrophysical properties. A Portuguese travertine was chosen as the object of our study. Its laboratory-induced changes were systematically monitored, using non-destructive techniques, to determine voids (pores + fractures)/matrix fractions and size spectrum evolution based on 3-D images. This investigation demonstrates that the μ-XCT potential constitutes a valid complementary tool when analysing decay processes of complex natural materials in different environmental conditions. It clearly provides suggestive and important qualitative and/or quantitative estimates, at different spatial scales, of environmentally induced stone voids/matrix network spatial structure-texture evolution correlations. Further qualitative/quantitative parameterization assessment and statistical validation will be the next step to be taken on this study.     

Radiological and geochemical characteristics of an ultramafic massif (NE Portugal) regarding the site aptness to host a near surface repository for low and intermediate level radwaste

The search for suitable sites to install near-surface repositories for low to intermediate level radioactive wastes has increased in the recent years, reflecting both the continuous rise in radioactive materials applications by the society and the increasing awareness of public perception regarding radwaste management. International recommendations towards the application of higher safety standards to low and intermediate level waste disposal sites being developed by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the European Commission decision that each Member State must safely dispose its own radwaste in its territory, according to national radwaste management plans, has leading to new soundly scientific studies. In Portugal, possible locations for that purpose are under study since 2006, following the pre-requisites indicated by IAEA. One of these sites overlaps a significant portion of an ultramafic massif, corresponding to an allochthonous and metamorphosed ophiolite complex. In the surveyed area of this massif, the prevailing rock type consists of (serpentinised) peridotites, occasionally containing irregular bodies of (amphibolitised) gabbros, over which an irregular/ill-developed regolith exists. The activities of ⁴⁰K, ¹³⁷Cs, ²¹⁰Pb, ²²⁶Ra and ²³²Th measured in samples representing three consecutive levels of the regolith upper portion in 13 stations confirm the heterogeneity put in evidence through in situ γ-ray surveys previously performed. The available dataset also demonstrates that radionuclide contents decrease prominently with depth, becoming closer to the bedrock values (up to ca. 41 Bq kg^?1 for ⁴⁰K in flaser-gabbros and near zero for all the remaining cases) but never reaching them. Therefore, the low/moderate radionuclide activity in the regolith upper portion reflect the contribution of sources that are independent of the lithological background; i.e. they indicate external and miscellaneous contributions to the “soil”-forming components, most of them coming from (dry or wet) atmospheric deposition. The chemical composition of the (serpentinised) peridotites and (amphibolitised) gabbros in the surveyed area, as well as their alteration products included in regolith, is homogeneous enough to be used as a faithful reference in monitoring studies of any kind. In addition, the significant ¹³⁷Cs activities measured in some top “soil” samples (up to 92 Bq kg^?1) strongly suggest that there are mineralogical specificities of the peridotite-derived regolith able to fix that radionuclide. This particular feature reinforces the existing criteria that favour the peridotites of Morais as a suitable host for a near surface repository of low to intermediate level radwaste.     

Evaluation of climate change effects in a coastal aquifer in Morocco using a density-dependent numerical model

A density-dependent numerical groundwater model was applied to study the climate change impact in a shallow aquifer in the Mediterranean coast of Morocco, the Saïdia aquifer. The stresses imposed to the model were derived from the IPCC emission scenarios and included recharge variation and sea level rise. The main effect of the climate change in the Saïdia aquifer will be a decrease in renewable resources, which in the worst-case scenario may decrease to 50–60% of present-day values, due to the decline in recharge and to a reduced inflow from the adjacent Triffa aquifer. The water quality will be affected mostly in the area immediately adjacent to the seashore, where salinity may increase up to 30 g/l. Localised areas may see a decrease in salinity due to the induced freshwater recharge from Oued Moulouya River and diminished inflow from high-salinity springs.     

Seismotectonic versus man-induced morphological changes in a cave on the Arrábida chain (Portugal)

Abstract

Distinctions between cave morphologies originating from seismic or active tectonics and those generated by natural clastic breakdown or by human activity must be made using unambiguous interpretative criteria.

Easily accessible caves in particular, which may have been visited for centuries or millennia, or caves located near engineering works or quarries using great quantities of explosives, may have broken speleothems, breakdowns or detachment joints unrelated to seismic events or tectonic movements.

Zambujal cave lies near neotectonic and seismic structures associated with a Plio-Quatemary 200 m uplift of the Arrábida chain and has suffered impacts resulting from quarrying, followed by possible vandalism. It is thus an example for which it is difficult to decipher morphological agents as there is the possibility that identical forms have been generated by several causes, which may have repeated at different episodes of its evolution. However, a careful morphological interpretation makes it possible to accept the existence of two seismic episodes, an “ancient” one and a “modern” one. The detection of other episodes between these is only possible using absolute dating. © Elsevier, Paris