Are natural hazards temporally random?

The paper employs statistical hypothesis tests to explore the question of whether natural hazards (hail and tornadoes being considered here) are or are not intertemporally random. The answer to this question, at least for these two hazards, is surprising and has important policy implications: hazards appear to be more likely in year t if an event was experienced in year t?1: hence, apparent ‘Gambler's Fallacy’ behaviour on the part of farmers and others may indeed be rational. Should this result hold for a full range of climate-related hazard types. as we suspect, hundreds of millions of dollars of crop loss and other damages may be preventable (e.g., rotating to frost-resistant crops if past events suggest greater than usual likelihood of early or late frost). The degree of positive serial correlation is also seen to vary a great deal regionally, with individuals in some states being unable to benefit from knowledge of prior hazard occurrence.     

Enstatite meteorite clasts in Almahata Sitta and other polymict ureilites: Implications for the formation of asteroid 2008 TC3 and the history of enstatite meteorite parent asteroids

The anomalous polymict ureilite Almahata Sitta (AhS) fell in 2008 when asteroid 2008 TC₃ disintegrated over Sudan and formed a strewn field of disaggregated clasts of various ureilitic and chondritic types. We studied the petrology and oxygen isotope compositions of enstatite meteorite samples from the University of Khartoum (UoK) collection of AhS. In addition, we describe the first bona fide (3.5 mm-sized) clast of an enstatite chondrite (EC) in a typical polymict ureilite, Northwest Africa (NWA) 10657. We evaluate whether 2008 TC₃ and typical polymict ureilites have a common origin, and examine implications for the history of enstatite meteorite asteroids in the solar system. Based on mineralogy, mineral compositions, and textures, the seven AhS EC clasts studied comprise one EH_a3 (S151), one EL_b3 (AhS 1002), two EH_b4-5 (AhS 2012, AhS 26), two EH_b5-6 or possibly impact melt rocks (AhS 609, AhS 41), and one EL_b6-7 (AhS 17), while the EC clast in NWA 10657 is EH_a3. Oxygen isotope compositions analyzed for five of these are similar to those of EC from non-UoK collections of AhS, and within the range of individual EC meteorites. There are no correlations of oxygen isotope composition with chemical group or subgroup. The EC clasts from the UoK collection show the same large range of types as those from non-UoK collections of AhS. The enstatite achondrite, AhS 60, is a unique type (not known as an individual meteorite) that has also been found among non-UoK AhS samples. EC are the most abundant non-ureilitic clasts in AhS but previously were thought to be absent in typical polymict ureilites, necessitating a distinct origin for AhS. The discovery of an EC in NWA 10657 changes this. We argue that the types of materials in AhS and typical polymict ureilites are essentially similar, indicating a common origin. We elaborate on a model in which AhS and typical polymict ureilites formed in the same regolith on a ureilitic daughter body. Most non-ureilitic clasts are remnants of impactors implanted at ~50–60 Myr after CAI. Differences in abundances can be explained by the stochastic nature of impactor addition. There is no significant difference between the chemical/petrologic types of EC in polymict ureilites and individual EC meteorites. This implies that fragments of the same populations of EC parent bodies were available as impactors at ~50–60 Myr after CAI and recently. This can be explained if materials excavated from various depths on EC bodies at ~50–60 Myr after CAI were reassembled into mixed layers, leaving relatively large bodies intact to survive 4 billion years. Polymict ureilites record a critical timestep in the collisional and dynamical evolution of the solar system, showing that asteroids that may have accreted at distant locations had migrated to within proximity of one another by 50–60 Myr after CAI, and providing constraints on the dynamical processes that could have caused such migrations.     

Refusing resilience: the racialization of risk and resilience

In this short essay debating the politics of resilience, I draw from the circulation of resilience discourses following the Milwaukee Uprising of 2016 to argue that critiques of resilience planning in such cities of the global west must be situated within the context of racial capitalism. I further contend that resilience-informed urban projects are often underpinned by an uncritical embrace of notions of public safety and crime that bolster racialized logics of securitization and carcerality. I conclude by suggesting that rather than seeking to recuperate resilience, we instead should refuse it, embracing planning approaches that emphasize structural change rather than adaption.     

Element partitioning during precipitation of aragonite from seawater: A framework for understanding paleoproxies

This study presents the results from precipitation experiments carried out to investigate the partitioning of the alkaline earth cations Mg²⁺, Ca²⁺, Sr²⁺, and Ba²⁺ between abiogenic aragonite and seawater as a function of temperature. Experiments were carried out at 5 to 75 °C, using the protocol of Kinsman and Holland [Kinsman, D.J.J., Holland, H.D., 1969. The coprecipitation of cations with CaCO₃ IV. The coprecipitation of Sr²⁺ with aragonite between 16 and 96 °C. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta33, 1-17.] The concentrations of Mg Sr and Ba were determined in the fluid from each experiment by inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry, and in individual aragonite grains by secondary ion mass spectrometry. The experimentally produced aragonite grains are enriched in trace components (“impurities”) relative to the concentrations expected from crystal-fluid equilibrium, indicating that kinetic processes are controlling element distribution. Our data are not consistent with fractionations produced kinetically in a boundary layer adjacent to the growing crystal because Sr²⁺, a compatible element, is enriched rather than depleted in the aragonite. Element compatibilities, and the systematic change in partitioning with temperature, can be explained by the process of surface entrapment proposed by Watson and Liang [Watson, E.B., Liang, Y., 1995. A simple model for sector zoning in slowly grown crystals: implications for growth rate and lattice diffusion, with emphasis on accessory minerals in crustal rocks. Am. Mineral.80, 1179-1187] and Watson [Watson, E.B., 1996. Surface enrichment and trace-element uptake during crystal growth. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta60, 5013-5020; Watson, E.B., 2004. A conceptual model for near-surface kinetic controls on the trace-element and stable isotope composition of abiogenic calcite crystals. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta68, 1473-1488]. This process is thought to operate in regimes where the competition between crystal growth rate and diffusivity in the near-surface region limits the extent to which the solid can achieve partitioning equilibrium with the fluid. A comparison of the skeletal composition of Diploria labyrinthiformis (brain coral) collected on Bermuda with results from precipitation calculations carried out using our experimentally determined partition coefficients indicate that the fluid from which coral skeleton precipitates has a Sr/Ca ratio comparable to that of seawater, but is depleted in Mg and Ba, and that there are seasonal fluctuations in the mass fraction of aragonite precipitated from the calcifying fluid (“precipitation efficiency”). The combined effects of surface entrapment during aragonite growth and seasonal fluctuations in “precipitation efficiency” likely forms the basis for the temperature information recorded in the aragonite skeletons of Scleractinian corals.     

Cross-shelf distribution of copepods and the role of event-scale winds in a northern California upwelling zone

Cross-shelf distribution and abundance of copepod nauplii and copepodids were measured during three summer upwelling seasons (2000–2002) in a coastal upwelling zone off northern California. These 3 years varied considerably in the intensity of winds, abundance of chlorophyll, and water temperature. The cruises in 2000 were characterized by relaxation conditions, with generally high levels of chlorophyll and high water temperature. The cruises in 2001 and 2002 were dominated by strong and persistent upwelling events, leading to lower chlorophyll and water temperatures. The copepod assemblage was dominated by Oithona spp., Acartia spp. and Pseudocalanus spp., with Metridia pacifica (lucens), Microsetella rosea, Oncaea spp. and Tortanus discaudatus also common during all 3 years. The cross-shelf distribution of copepods was generally shifted offshore during upwelling and onshore during relaxation events, although some variability between species occurred. Abundance of all life stages generally exhibited a negative correlation with cross-shelf transport averaged over at least 1–4 days and lagged by 0–3 days, indicating lower abundances during and immediately after active upwelling. However, copepod nauplii seemed to respond positively to wind events lasting 1–5 days followed by a period of relaxation lasting 6 or 7 days. These rapid rates of change in abundance are probably too great to be due to in situ growth and reproduction alone; physical processes must also play a role. These results suggest a highly dynamic relationship between copepods and upwelling events off northern California, with species-specific responses to upwelling to be expected.     

On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Characterization of Water Quality in Xiao Xingkai Lake: Implications for Trophic Status and Management

Increasing cases of lake eutrophication globally have raised concerns among stakeholders, and particularly in China. Evaluating the causes of eutrophication in waterways is essential for effective pollution prevention and control. Xiao Xingkai Lake is part of and connected to Xingkai(Khanka) Lake, a boundary lake between China and Russia. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal variabilities in water quality(i.e., dissolved oxygen(DO), total nitrogen(TN), total phosphorus(TP), chemica...     

The Greenland ice sheet through the last glacial-interglacial cycle

The evolution of the Greenland ice sheet during the last 150,000 years, in response to a climate history derived from a Greenland ice-margin oxygen-18 record, is simulated by means of a three-dimensional, time-dependent ice-sheet model. The calculations indicate that the ice sheet displayed considerable thinning and ice-margin retreat during the last interglacial (the Eemian) and during a warm interstadial c. 100,000 yr B.P., resulting in a splitting up of the ice sheet into a central-northern and a southern part. However, the ice sheet in Central Greenland survived the warm stages with almost unchanged surface elevations as compared with the present.     

The effect of rainfall and habitat on abundance and diversity of birds in a fenced protected area in the central Saudi Arabian desert

Factors influencing avian abundance and diversity in central Saudi Arabia were investigated over a 28-month period using walked belt transects in five local habitat types in a 2200 km²fenced desert protected area established in 1989. Enclosure of the protected area has resulted in the development of a mosaic of densely vegetated grassland and savanna areas amongst the sand and gravel plains which dominate the surrounding landscape. Overall bird diversity showed biannual peaks corresponding to spring and autumn passage migration, when 30–40 species were recorded; troughs occurred in summer or winter (9–12 species) following poor spring or autumn rains. Bird numbers responded dramatically to heavy rainfall (> 20 mm in a month) occurring two months earlier, with major peaks recorded in autumn 1992 and May–June 1994. Numbers of granivorous species, principally larks, fluctuated mostly in relation to rainfall, whereas largely insectivorous species tended to remain more stable. A desert locust plague in spring/summer 1993, combined with poor spring rains, resulted in the lowest numbers and species diversity recorded during the study.