Influence of runout‐path material on emplacement of the Round Top rock avalanche,New Zealand

Factors influencing the distance a disintegrating rock mass travels as it spreads across the landscape after detaching from a slope include the volume and mechanical properties of the material, local topography and the materials encountered in the runout path. Here we investigate the influence of runout‐path material on the mobility and final morphology of the Round Top rock avalanche deposit, New Zealand. This rock avalanche of mylonitic schist ran out over a planar surface of saturated fluvial gravel. Longitudinal ridges aligned radial to source grade into smaller aligned hummocks and digitate lobes in the distal reach. Soils and river gravels in the runout path are found bulldozed at elongate ridge termini where they formed local obstacles halting avalanche motion at these locations, thus aiding development of prominent elongate ridges on the deposit. Further travel over the disrupted substrate led to avalanche–substrate mixing at the base of the debris mass. Field observations combined with subsurface geophysical investigations and laboratory analogue models illustrate the processes of substrate deformation features at the Round Top rock avalanche. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1DTempPro: Analyzing Temperature Profiles for Groundwater/Surface‐water Exchange

A new computer program, 1DTempPro, is presented for the analysis of vertical one‐dimensional (1D) temperature profiles under saturated flow conditions. 1DTempPro is a graphical user interface to the U.S. Geological Survey code Variably Saturated 2‐Dimensional Heat Transport (VS2DH), which numerically solves the flow and heat‐transport equations. Pre‐ and postprocessor features allow the user to calibrate VS2DH models to estimate vertical groundwater/surface‐water exchange and also hydraulic conductivity for cases where hydraulic head is known.     

Bank filtration in the sandy littoral zone of Lake Tegel (Berlin): Structure and dynamics of the biological active filter zone and clogging processes

This study focused on clogging processes and on the benthic microalgal and meiofaunal assemblage in the sandy littoral zone of Lake Tegel, which are significantly involved in bank filtration, in a long-term. Our approach combined field studies and “in situ” experiments to highlight the structure of the biological active filter zone as well as the mechanisms and effects of clogging in the interstices that influence the infiltration process.Campaigns to measure “in situ” infiltration rates and hydraulic potential were conducted monthly from March 2004 to April 2005. Meiofaunal abundances and fine particulate organic matter (FPOM) were determined every 6 weeks in freeze cores down to depths of 50 cm. In parallel, concentrations of carbon, nitrogen and chlorophyll a were measured in samples of unfrozen sediment cores, that were divided in 1-cm steps down to depths of ≥10 cm. Similar sediment profiles were generated for analysis of colloidal carbohydrates, extracellular polymeric substances (EPS) and proteins between December 2005 and June 2006. Electron microscopy was used to visualize biofilm structure. Long-term experiments with natural FPOM and melamine resin particles as fluorescent tracers were performed to study “in situ” particle retention and transport, respectively. Additionally seston input was quantified during a 1-week period in April 2005.Infiltration rates showed a high temporal and spatial variability, but were not correlated with hydraulic conductivities as hydraulic gradients changed a lot. Likewise a correlation between infiltration rates and hydraulic potentials was not observed, indicating clogging processes. These are triggered to a high extend by biological compounds. In addition, seston input and intermittent gas intrusion are considered to reduce the hydraulic conductivity considerably. No significant “in situ” transport of inert natural fluorescent tracers was observed. However, a complete and permanent clogging of the sandy sediment does not occur, and daily infiltration rates of 0.7-27 L m⁻² h⁻¹ (mean 9 L m⁻² h⁻¹) guarantee a sufficient water supply by bank filtration for decades.     

Climatic and limnological changes at Lake Karakul (Tajikistan) during the last ~29 cal ka

We present results of analyses on a sediment core from Lake Karakul, located in the eastern Pamir Mountains, Tajikistan. The core spans the last ~29 cal ka. We investigated and assessed processes internal and external to the lake to infer changes in past moisture availability. Among the variables used to infer lake-external processes, high values of grain-size end-member (EM) 3 (wide grain-size distribution that reflects fluvial input) and high Sr/Rb and Zr/Rb ratios (coinciding with coarse grain sizes), are indicative of moister conditions. High values in EM1, EM2 (peaks of small grain sizes that reflect long-distance dust transport or fine, glacially derived clastic input) and TiO₂ (terrigenous input) are thought to reflect greater influence of dry air masses, most likely of Westerly origin. High input of dust from distant sources, beginning before the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and continuing to the late glacial, reflects the influence of dry Westerlies, whereas peaks in fluvial input suggest increased moisture availability. The early to early-middle Holocene is characterised by coarse mean grain sizes, indicating constant, high fluvial input and moister conditions in the region. A steady increase in terrigenous dust and a decrease in fluvial input from 6.6 cal ka BP onwards points to the Westerlies as the predominant atmospheric circulation through to present, and marks a return to drier and even arid conditions in the area. Proxies for productivity (TOC, TOC/TN, TOC _Br ), redox potential (Fe/Mn) and changes in the endogenic carbonate precipitation (TIC, δ¹⁸O _Carb ) indicate changes within the lake. Low productivity characterised the lake from the late Pleistocene until 6.6 cal ka BP, and increased rapidly afterwards. Lake level remained low until the LGM, but water depth increased to a maximum during the late glacial and remained high into the early Holocene. Subsequently, the water level decreased to its present stage. Today the lake system is mainly climatically controlled, but the depositional regime is also driven by internal limnogeological processes.     

Granular flow experiments on the interaction with stationary runout path materials and comparison to rock avalanche events

The central focus of this work is to study the processes acting well below the surface of a moving rock or debris avalanche during travel over stationary substrate material. Small‐scale physical models at a linear scale of 1:10⁴ used coal as avalanche analogue material and different granular material simulating sedimentary substrates varying in frictional resistance, thickness and relative basal boundary roughness, as well as inerodible, non‐deformable runout path conditions. Substrate materials with the least frictional resistance showed the greatest response to granular flow overriding, becoming entirely mobilized beneath and ahead of the moving mass and producing the longest runout observed with a unique deposit profile shape. With a smooth substrate basal contact, failure occurred along this plane and avalanche and substrate became coupled during runout. With a rough base, however, temporary force chains of grain contacts in the substrate prevailed longer, imparted their resistance to motion/shear into the granular flow, and the flow rear section consequently halted earlier than when moving over substrates with a weak base. Reducing substrate thickness diminished the effect of basal contact roughness on granular flow runout and deposit length. Inerodible, non‐deformable substrate conditions caused changes in granular flow behaviour from essentially en masse sliding on low‐friction surfaces to increasing granular agitation over rougher paths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models

Most of the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) is believed to be connected with differences in the simulated radiative feedback from clouds. Traditional methods of evaluating clouds in GCMs compare time–mean geographical cloud fields or aspects of present-day cloud variability, with observational data. In both cases a hypothetical assumption is made that the quantity evaluated is relevant for the mean climate change response. Nine GCMs (atmosphere models coupled to mixed-layer ocean models) from the CFMIP and CMIP model comparison projects are used in this study to demonstrate a common relationship between the mean cloud response to climate change and present-day variability. Although atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean models are used here, the results are found to be equally applicable to transient coupled model simulations. When changes in cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are composited by changes in vertical velocity and saturated lower tropospheric stability, a component of the local mean climate change response can be related to present-day variability in all of the GCMs. This suggests that the relationship is not model specific and might be relevant in the real world. In this case, evaluation within the proposed compositing framework is a direct evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change. None of the models studied are found to be clearly superior or deficient when evaluated, but a couple appear to perform well on several relevant metrics. Whilst some broad similarities can be identified between the 60°N–60°S mean change in CRF to increased CO₂ and that predicted from present-day variability, the two cannot be quantitatively constrained based on changes in vertical velocity and stability alone. Hence other processes also contribute to the global mean cloud response to climate change.     

The UV-optical colours of brightest cluster galaxies in optically and X-ray selected clusters

Many brightest cluster galaxies (BCGs) at the centres of X-ray selected clusters exhibit clear evidence for recent star formation. However, studies of BCGs in optically selected clusters show that star formation is not enhanced when compared to control samples of non-BCGs of similar stellar mass. Here, we analyse a sample of 113 BCGs in low-redshift  ( z < 0.1)  , optically selected clusters, a matched control sample of non-BCGs, and a smaller sample of BCGs in X-ray selected clusters. We convolve the Sloan Digital Sky Survey images of the BCGs to match the resolution of the Galaxy Evolution Explorer ( GALEX ) data and we measure UV-optical colours in their inner and outer regions. We find that optically selected BCGs exhibit smaller scatter in optical colours and redder inner  NUV − r   colours than the control galaxies, indicating that they are a homogenous population with very little ongoing star formation. The BCGs in the X-ray selected cluster sample span a similar range in optical colours, but have bluer  NUV − r   colours. Among X-ray selected BCGs, those located in clusters with central cooling times of less than 1 Gyr are significantly bluer than those located in clusters where the central gas cooling times are long. Our main conclusion is that the location of a galaxy at the centre of its halo is not sufficient to determine whether or not it is currently forming stars. One must also have information about the thermodynamic state of the gas in the core of the halo.     

Regional hydrological cycle changes in response to an ambitious mitigation scenario

Climate change impacts on the regional hydrological cycle are compared for model projections following an ambitious emissions-reduction scenario (E1) and a medium-high emissions scenario with no mitigation policy (A1B). The E1 scenario is designed to limit global annual mean warming to 2 °C or less above pre-industrial levels. A multi-model ensemble consisting of ten coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation models is analyzed, which includes five Earth System Models containing interactive carbon cycles. The aim of the study is to assess the changes that could be mitigated under the E1 scenario and to identify regions where even small climate change may lead to strong changes in precipitation, cloud cover and evapotranspiration. In these regions the hydrological cycle is considered particularly vulnerable to climate change, highlighting the need for adaptation measures even if strong mitigation of climate change would be achieved. In the A1B projections, there are significant drying trends in sub-tropical regions, precipitation increases in high latitudes and some monsoon regions, as well as changes in cloudiness and evapotranspiration. These signals are reduced in E1 scenario projections. However, even under the E1 scenario, significant precipitation decrease in the subtropics and increase in high latitudes are projected. Particularly the Amazon region shows strong drying tendencies in some models, most probably related to vegetation interaction. Where climate change is relatively small, the E1 scenario tends to keep the average magnitude of potential changes at a level comparable to current intra-seasonal to inter-annual variability at that location. Such regions are mainly located in the mid-latitudes.     

Disconcerting learning on climate sensitivity and the uncertain future of uncertainty

How will our estimates of climate uncertainty evolve in the coming years, as new learning is acquired and climate research makes further progress? As a tentative contribution to this question, we argue here that the future path of climate uncertainty may itself be quite uncertain, and that our uncertainty is actually prone to increase even though we learn more about the climate system. We term disconcerting learning this somewhat counter-intuitive process in which improved knowledge generates higher uncertainty. After recalling some definitions, this concept is connected with the related concept of negative learning that was introduced earlier by Oppenheimer et al. (Clim Change 89:155–172, 2008). We illustrate disconcerting learning on several real-life examples and characterize mathematically certain general conditions for its occurrence. We show next that these conditions are met in the current state of our knowledge on climate sensitivity, and illustrate this situation based on an energy balance model of climate. We finally discuss the implications of these results on the development of adaptation and mitigation policy.     

Episodic mineralization of hydrothermal illite in the Soultz-sous-Forêts granite (Upper Rhine Graben, France)

Episodic and localized illite mineralization is documented in the hydrothermally altered Soultz-sous-Forêts granite (Upper Rhine Graben, France). Separated grain-size fractions of altered granite and argillite vein samples contain mixtures of 2M₁ and 1M trans-vacant illite varieties. The platy pseudohexagonal 2M₁ illite phases dominate the vein fillings, whereas the 1M illite occurs largely as a fibrous pore-filling variety, which is particularly abundant in the granite matrix. Multiple phases of fluid injections into the granite body have resulted in different illite assemblages, each sample containing a mixture of polytype generations formed during different crystal growth events. On the basis of mineralogical and K–Ar isotopic constraints, the ages of these vein-mineralizing events are determined by plotting the K–Ar values of the various grain-size fractions against polytype abundance and the fitted volume-weighted crystallite thickness distributions. The results suggest a Permian age for the formation of the studied argillite veins, characterized by successive injections of hydrothermal fluids. Secondary episodes of illite crystallization occurred during Jurassic and Cretaceous (or even younger times) in both the veins and the granite matrix. There are indications that the polytype structure and composition of illite were strongly influenced by variations in fluid chemistry and the degree of fluid–rock interaction as the granite was progressively sealed during post-Variscan, episodic hydrothermal activity.