Evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change in an intercomparison of climate models

Most of the uncertainty in the climate sensitivity of contemporary general circulation models (GCMs) is believed to be connected with differences in the simulated radiative feedback from clouds. Traditional methods of evaluating clouds in GCMs compare time–mean geographical cloud fields or aspects of present-day cloud variability, with observational data. In both cases a hypothetical assumption is made that the quantity evaluated is relevant for the mean climate change response. Nine GCMs (atmosphere models coupled to mixed-layer ocean models) from the CFMIP and CMIP model comparison projects are used in this study to demonstrate a common relationship between the mean cloud response to climate change and present-day variability. Although atmosphere–mixed-layer ocean models are used here, the results are found to be equally applicable to transient coupled model simulations. When changes in cloud radiative forcing (CRF) are composited by changes in vertical velocity and saturated lower tropospheric stability, a component of the local mean climate change response can be related to present-day variability in all of the GCMs. This suggests that the relationship is not model specific and might be relevant in the real world. In this case, evaluation within the proposed compositing framework is a direct evaluation of a component of the cloud response to climate change. None of the models studied are found to be clearly superior or deficient when evaluated, but a couple appear to perform well on several relevant metrics. Whilst some broad similarities can be identified between the 60°N–60°S mean change in CRF to increased CO₂ and that predicted from present-day variability, the two cannot be quantitatively constrained based on changes in vertical velocity and stability alone. Hence other processes also contribute to the global mean cloud response to climate change.     

Episodic mineralization of hydrothermal illite in the Soultz-sous-Forêts granite (Upper Rhine Graben, France)

Episodic and localized illite mineralization is documented in the hydrothermally altered Soultz-sous-Forêts granite (Upper Rhine Graben, France). Separated grain-size fractions of altered granite and argillite vein samples contain mixtures of 2M₁ and 1M trans-vacant illite varieties. The platy pseudohexagonal 2M₁ illite phases dominate the vein fillings, whereas the 1M illite occurs largely as a fibrous pore-filling variety, which is particularly abundant in the granite matrix. Multiple phases of fluid injections into the granite body have resulted in different illite assemblages, each sample containing a mixture of polytype generations formed during different crystal growth events. On the basis of mineralogical and K–Ar isotopic constraints, the ages of these vein-mineralizing events are determined by plotting the K–Ar values of the various grain-size fractions against polytype abundance and the fitted volume-weighted crystallite thickness distributions. The results suggest a Permian age for the formation of the studied argillite veins, characterized by successive injections of hydrothermal fluids. Secondary episodes of illite crystallization occurred during Jurassic and Cretaceous (or even younger times) in both the veins and the granite matrix. There are indications that the polytype structure and composition of illite were strongly influenced by variations in fluid chemistry and the degree of fluid–rock interaction as the granite was progressively sealed during post-Variscan, episodic hydrothermal activity.     

The zircon evidence of temporally changing sediment transport—the NW Gondwana margin during Cambrian to Devonian time (Aoucert and Smara areas,Moroccan Sahara)

International Journal of Earth Sciences - Detrital zircon provenance studies are an established tool to develop palaeogeographic models, mostly based on zircon of siliciclastic rocks and isotope...     

Submillennial environmental fluctuations during marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 2: a comparative analysis of diatom and pollen evidence from Lago Grande di Monticchio,South Italy

High temporal resolution pollen and diatom analyses carried out on sediments from Lago Grande di Monticchio span the interval 23 700–21 200 calendar yr. BP, a brief interstadial during marine Oxygen Isotope Stage 2. Both records exhibit marked changes that are interpreted as responses to climatic changes. The diatoms and terrestrial vegetation appear to respond at the same time; any relative lag in the response of the vegetation was less than the ca. 60 yr resolution of the two records. The interval coincides, at least in part, with the Campo Imperatore Stade, when the Gran Sasso ice sheet reached its maximum extent and water level was high in the Fucino Lake. Correlation of the marked environmental oscillation with one of the Dansgaard–Oeschger Events recorded by stable oxygen isotope records from the Greenland ice–cap is proposed. This follows an interval interpreted as having a cold dry climate and correlated with a Heinrich Event in the North Atlantic. Together the two records enable a multifactorial interpretation of the palaeoclimate changes that characterise the oscillation, providing additional insight to that obtained from studies of ice and ocean‐sediment cores, especially with respect to the seasonality of temperature and precipitation. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

1DTempPro: Analyzing Temperature Profiles for Groundwater/Surface‐water Exchange

A new computer program, 1DTempPro, is presented for the analysis of vertical one‐dimensional (1D) temperature profiles under saturated flow conditions. 1DTempPro is a graphical user interface to the U.S. Geological Survey code Variably Saturated 2‐Dimensional Heat Transport (VS2DH), which numerically solves the flow and heat‐transport equations. Pre‐ and postprocessor features allow the user to calibrate VS2DH models to estimate vertical groundwater/surface‐water exchange and also hydraulic conductivity for cases where hydraulic head is known.     

Granular flow experiments on the interaction with stationary runout path materials and comparison to rock avalanche events

The central focus of this work is to study the processes acting well below the surface of a moving rock or debris avalanche during travel over stationary substrate material. Small‐scale physical models at a linear scale of 1:10⁴ used coal as avalanche analogue material and different granular material simulating sedimentary substrates varying in frictional resistance, thickness and relative basal boundary roughness, as well as inerodible, non‐deformable runout path conditions. Substrate materials with the least frictional resistance showed the greatest response to granular flow overriding, becoming entirely mobilized beneath and ahead of the moving mass and producing the longest runout observed with a unique deposit profile shape. With a smooth substrate basal contact, failure occurred along this plane and avalanche and substrate became coupled during runout. With a rough base, however, temporary force chains of grain contacts in the substrate prevailed longer, imparted their resistance to motion/shear into the granular flow, and the flow rear section consequently halted earlier than when moving over substrates with a weak base. Reducing substrate thickness diminished the effect of basal contact roughness on granular flow runout and deposit length. Inerodible, non‐deformable substrate conditions caused changes in granular flow behaviour from essentially en masse sliding on low‐friction surfaces to increasing granular agitation over rougher paths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of runout‐path material on emplacement of the Round Top rock avalanche,New Zealand

Factors influencing the distance a disintegrating rock mass travels as it spreads across the landscape after detaching from a slope include the volume and mechanical properties of the material, local topography and the materials encountered in the runout path. Here we investigate the influence of runout‐path material on the mobility and final morphology of the Round Top rock avalanche deposit, New Zealand. This rock avalanche of mylonitic schist ran out over a planar surface of saturated fluvial gravel. Longitudinal ridges aligned radial to source grade into smaller aligned hummocks and digitate lobes in the distal reach. Soils and river gravels in the runout path are found bulldozed at elongate ridge termini where they formed local obstacles halting avalanche motion at these locations, thus aiding development of prominent elongate ridges on the deposit. Further travel over the disrupted substrate led to avalanche–substrate mixing at the base of the debris mass. Field observations combined with subsurface geophysical investigations and laboratory analogue models illustrate the processes of substrate deformation features at the Round Top rock avalanche. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fluctuations of electrical conductivity as a natural tracer for bank filtration in a losing stream

A key parameter used in the assessment of bank filtration is the travel time of the infiltrated river water during the passage through groundwater. We analyze time series of electrical conductivity (EC) in the river and adjacent groundwater observation wells to investigate travel times of young hyporheic groundwater in adjoining channelized and restored sections of River Thur in North-East Switzerland. To quantify mixing ratios and mean residence times we perform cross-correlation analysis and non-parametric deconvolution of the EC time series. Measurements of radon-222 in the groundwater samples validate the calculated residence times. A simple relationship between travel time and distance to the river has not been observed. Therefore, we speculate that the lateral position and depth of the thalweg as well as the type of bank stabilization might control the infiltration processes in losing rivers. Diurnal oscillations of EC observed in the river and in nearby observation wells facilitate analyzing the temporal variation of infiltration. The diurnal oscillations are particularly pronounced in low flow situations, while the overall EC signal is dominated by individual high-flow events. Differences in travel times derived from diurnal and overall EC signals thus reflect different infiltration regimes.     

Similar Adsorption Parameters for Trace Metals with Different Aquatic Particles

Conditional surface binding constants and complexation capacities for Zn, Pb, Cd, and Cu were determined from surface titration experiments of heterogeneous natural aquatic particulate matter of different origin and composition. Metals and particles were evaluated in naturally occurring concentration ranges in river water.The adsorption of trace metals can be adequately described with a single conditional binding constant over a wide range of metal : particle ratios. Binding constants for aquatic particles at pH 8.0 are remarkably independent from particle composition and are specific for each metal: log K^ads _Zn = 8.39, log K^ads _Pb = 9.67, log K^ads _Cd = 8.61, log ^ads _Cu = 9.84. From competition experiments with Ca and Pb we extracted a sorption coefficient for Ca of log K^ads _Ca = 2.5 (pH 8.0). Maximum surface binding capacities for all metal ions were found for particles containing high fractions of Mn-oxides which are associated with large specific surface areas. Generally, we found sorption capacities to decrease in the sequence Cu Pb, Zn > Cd.The experiments suggest that the conditional surface binding constants and complexation capacities are applicable to model trace metal adsorption in the concentration ranges of natural waters under conditions similar to the experiments. Results also imply that the chemical nature of particle surface sites is rather uniform in the intermediate concentration range or that the array of binding sites averages out differences in sorption strength over the prevailing concentration range of metal ions, respectively.     

A Statistical Analysis of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its Impact on European Temperature

In this study the behaviour of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and its impact on the surface air temperature in Europe 1891-1990 is analysed using statistical time series analysis techniques. For this purpose, both the NAO index (NAOI) and the surface air temperature time series from 41 European stations are split up into typical variation components. Various measures of correlation indicate that the NAOI-temperature relationships are approximately linear and most pronounced in winter. The spatial correlation patterns show a correlation decrease from North West to South East (winter) exceeding correlation coefficients of 0.6 in the Scotland-South Norwegian area. In summer, these correlations are very weak, in spring and autumn stronger but smaller than in winter. These correlations change significantly in time indicating increasing correlations in Central and North Europe and decreasing correlations in the North West. Low-frequent episodic components represented by related polynomials of different order are very outstanding in both NAO and temperatures showing up in all seasons, except summer, relative maxima roughly 1900 and in recent times, relative minima in the beginning ( ca . 1870) and roughly 1960-1970. Periodogramm analysis reveals a dominant cycle of 7.5 years (NAOI and a majority of temperature time series) whereas in case of the polynomial component one may speculate about a 80-90 year cycle.