Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Public participation in monitoring programmes as a tool for lakeshore monitoring: the example of Lake Pyhäjärvi, Karelia, Eastern Finland

Lake Pyhäjärvi, on the border between Finland and Russia in Karelia, is a very valuable clear-water lake of the Lobelia type. It belongs to the European Union's Natura 2000 programme in Finland, and has been included in regional and national monitoring programmes since the 1960s. The main monitoring station is situated near the outlet of the lake. Deterioration of its water quality was suspected already in the 1980s because of decreasing Secchi depths (transparency) and increasing chlorophyll a.The occurrence of algal blooms on the lakeshores is monitored weekly during each summer at one site on Lake Pyhäjärvi (site 1). This is a part of nationwide intensive algae monitoring programme organised by the environmental authorities together with voluntary observers at some 270 lake sites in Finland since 1998. Since 1997, Secchi depth observations have been carried out by volunteers biweekly or monthly at 17 sites on the lake. In the vicinity of one of these transparency observation sites (station 100), intensive monitoring of algae has been carried out. At this lakeshore monitoring site 69 algal observations were made, ten of which recorded algal blooms during the study period 1998–2002. The observed algal blooms were caused by algae of the Anabaena species, mainly by Anabaena lemmermannii. At Lake Pyhäjärvi the number of algal bloom observations received from the public have decreased from the 1990s to the 2000s. The range of Secchi disc transparency was 5.0–8.4 m with a mean value of 6.2 m at station 100 and 4.3–7.7 m (mean 6.1 m) at the main monitoring station 2 during the open water periods in 1998–2002. During this study period, the maximum values at site 100 seem to have increased slightly, which might indicate some improvement in the water quality due to decreased point source loading.We conclude that the intensive algal monitoring results of 5 years at the lakeshore site and the transparency results — both compiled by trained volunteers — reflect an improvement in the state of Lake Pyhäjärvi in Karelia. This conclusion is in accordance with the long-term water quality and short-core studies of sedimentary diatoms in Lake Pyhäjärvi. We suggest that the intensive algal observations and transparency measurements are both suitable methods for the monitoring of lakeshores and lakes, and that both are suitable for voluntary monitoring. We found public participation a good tool for monitoring lakes and lakeshores.     

Piping dynamics in mid‐altitude mountains under a temperate climate: Bieszczady Mountains,eastern Carpathians

Piping has been recognized as an important geomorphic, soil erosion and hydrologic process. It seems that it is far more widespread than it has often been supposed. However, our knowledge about piping dynamics and its quantification currently relies on a limited number of data for mainly loess‐derived areas and marl badlands. Therefore, this research aimed to recognize piping dynamics in mid‐altitude mountains under a temperate climate, where piping occurs in Cambisols, not previously considered as piping‐prone soils. It has been expressed by the estimation of erosion rates due to piping and elongation of pipes in the Bere?nica Wy?na catchment in the Bieszczady Mountains, eastern Carpathians (305 ha, 188 collapsed pipes). The research was based on the monitoring of selected piping systems (1971–1974, 2013–2016). Changes in soil loss vary significantly between different years (up to 27.36 t ha^?1 yr^?1), as well as between the mean short‐term erosion rate (up to 13.10 t ha^?1 yr^?1), and the long‐term (45 years) mean of 1.34 t ha^?1 yr^?1. The elongation of pipes also differs, from no changes to 36 m during one year. The mean total soil loss is 48.8 t ha^?1 in plots, whereas in the whole studied catchment it is 2.0 t ha^?1. Hence, piping is both spatially and temporally dependent. The magnitude of piping in the study area is at least three orders of magnitude higher than surface erosion rates (i.e. sheet and rill erosion) under similar land use (grasslands), and it is comparable to the magnitude of surface soil erosion on arable lands. It means that piping constitutes a significant environmental problem and, wherever it occurs, it is an important, or even the main, sediment source. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape

While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits.     

Spatially resolved spectrophotometry of comet P/Stephan-Oterma

Observations of Comet P/Stephan-Oterma were made with an Intensified Dissector Scanner spectrograph on the McDonald Observatory 2.7-m telescope during the period from July 1980 to February 1981. These spectra cover a range of heliocentric distances from 2.3 AU preperihelion to 1.8 AU postperihelion. A small aperture was used to map the spatial distributions of the gases in the coma. Column densities of the observed cometary emissions (CN, C₃, CH, and C₂) were calculated and it is shown that Stephan-Oterma appeared nearly spherically symmetric. These date are used by Cochran (1985, Icarus62, 82–92) to constrain chemical models of Stephan-Oterma.     

Daily Weather Observations in Sixteenth-Century Europe

Thirty-two weather diaries written in astronomical calendars in central Europe in the late fifteenth and sixteenth centuries are presented and discussed. Systematic weather observations were promoted by the rise of planetary astronomy and its application in astro-meteorology. The practice of keeping weather diaries spread from Cracow (Poland) to Ingolstadt (Germany) and from there to other universities. The data obtained from these sources provided the backbone for setting up series of precipitation indices for Poland, Germany and Switzerland. Monthly statistics of days with precipitation, snowfall and frost were computed by counting the relevant entries in the most important diaries. The results were compared with either those obtained from instrumental measurements in the same place or with those from modern instrumental measurements in a neighbouring place. The final results show that autumn was considerably colder in the early sixteenth century. April was considerably drier and July was wetter during the period 1508-1531 than during 1901-1960. In order to highlight the impact of weather patterns on grain prices in a year of crisis, the timing of wet and dry spells in southern Poland and southern Germany is compared for the year 1529. Winters became 1.7°C colder from 1564 to 1576 and the month of July tended to be wetter than in 1901-1960. Details noted in the diaries kept between 1585 and 1600 by the astronomers Brahe (near Copenhagen) and Fabricius (in the Ostfriesland region of northwestern Germany) closely agree. It rained more often in June and July and temperatures dropped. The winter months were more frequently dominated by winds from easterly directions, the frequency of snowfall was higher and a deficit occurred in precipitation. This points to a higher frequency of high pressure in the Fennoscandian area with cold air advection from the east or northeast.     

Interaction between diapirism and sediment loading at the shelf-slope boundary,northwest Gulf of Mexico

During the last low stand of sea level, rivers and streams drained across the present northwestern Gulf of Mexico continental shelf depositing sediments in several shallow-water deltas near the present shelf-slope boundary. The weight of these wedges of prograded sediments triggered or augmented both subsidence of local depositional basins and upward movement of diapiric material around the basin edges. A depositional basin off the southwestern Louisiana coast records migration of the basinal axis during late Pleistocene and Holocene time indicating relative growth of diapirs along the basin margin throughout the most recent geological record.     

AstroGrid: A place for your science

Nicholas A Walton, Silvia Dalla, Eduardo Gonzalez-Solarez, Anita Richards and Jonathan Tedds show off the fast-developing astronomical applications of the UK's virtual observatory service.