Biosedimentary record of postglacial coastal dynamics: high‐resolution sequence stratigraphy from the northern Tuscan coast (Italy)

Integrating analysis of the benthic palaeoecological record with multivariate ordination techniques represents a powerful synergy able to provide an improved characterization of coastal depositional facies in a sequence stratigraphical perspective. Through quantitative analysis of benthic foraminifer, ostracod and mollusc associations from the postglacial succession of Core M3 (Arno coastal plain, Tuscany, Italy), and application of detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) to the mollusc sub‐data set, we offer a refined picture of stratigraphical variations in faunal content from a paralic depositional setting, and reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental gradients that account for such variations. Despite distinct ecological behaviours, and taphonomic and sedimentological constraints, a strong ecological control on meio‐ and macrofaunal biofacies and taxa turnover is documented across the study succession. Amongst all possible mechanisms that may play a role in ‘shaping’ fossil distribution, the ecological signal driven by salinity represents the most prominent factor controlling the composition of fossil associations in the cored succession. Molluscs can even provide outstanding quantitative estimates of palaeosalinity along the sampled core. When plotted stratigraphically, the three fossil sub‐data sets show consistent patterns of vertical evolution that enable prompt identification of the key surfaces for sequence stratigraphical interpretation in otherwise lithologically indistinguishable deposits. The concomitant maximum richness of species with strong marine affinity, paralleled by the highest DCA salinity estimates, allows recognition of the maximum flooding zone, dated to ～7.7 cal. ka BP, within a homogeneous succession of outer lagoon clays. These clays are sandwiched between early transgressive, swamp to inner lagoon deposits and overlying prograding coastal?alluvial plain facies.     

On the seismic performances of rigid block‐like structures coupled with an oscillating mass working as a TMD

In this paper, the effects of a mass damper on the rocking motion of a non‐symmetric rigid block‐like structure, subject to different seismic excitation, are investigated. The damper is modelled as a single degree of freedom oscillating mass, running at the top of the block and connected to it by a linear visco‐elastic device. The equations of rocking motion, the uplift and the impact conditions are derived. A nondimensionalisation of the governing equations is performed with the aim to obtain an extensive parametric analysis. The results are achieved by numerical integration of these equations. The slenderness and the base of the rigid block, and the eccentricity of the centre of mass are taken as variable parameters in the analyses. The main objective of the study is to check the performance of the damper versus the spectral characteristics of the seismic input. Three earthquake registrations with different frequency contents are used in the analyses. The results show that the presence of the mass damper leads to different levels of improvement of the response of the system, depending on the spectral characteristics of the seismic input. Curves providing the overturning slenderness of blocks of specific sizes versus the characteristics of the TMD are obtained. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Gully head modelling: A Mediterranean badland case study

Predicting the location of gully heads in various environments is an important step towards predicting gully erosion rates. So far, field data collection and modelling of topographic thresholds for gully head development has mainly focused on gullies that formed in forested areas, rangelands, pastures and cropland. Such information for gullies in badlands however is very scarce. Therefore, this paper aims to extend the database on gully head topographical thresholds through data collection in a badland area and to improve the prediction of gully heads forming at sites with a very low erosion resistance value. For this, we chose a badland site located in central Italy that is characterized by biancana forms and both active and dormant gullies. The definition of the conditions under which present‐day gully heads developed allowed a better modelling of the gully head threshold equation, with modification of a previous model and the exemplification of how to use the updated model. The model shows that the resistance to gully head retreat depends on slope gradient and drainage area at gully heads, land use at the moment of gully development (as numerically expressed using parameters derived from the Runoff Curve Number method), surface rock fragment cover, presence of joints, pipes, and factors/processes affecting detachment rate. This study attempted to better understand environmental conditions that control the development of gully heads in badlands through a combination of field data collection of gully heads, an analysis of land use changes over 10 centuries, focusing on the period 1820–2005, and land use management through repeat photography and a critical examination of historical documents. © 2018 The Authors. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.     

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.     

Climatic and structural controls on Late-glacial and Holocene rockfall occurrence in high-elevated rock walls of the Mont Blanc massif (Western Alps)

In the Mont Blanc massif (European Western Alps), rockfalls are one of the main natural hazards for alpinists and infrastructure. Rockfall activity after the Little Ice Age is well documented. An increase in frequency during the last three decades is related to permafrost degradation caused by rising air temperatures. In order to understand whether climate exerts a long-term control on rockfall occurrence, a selection of paleo-rockfall scars was dated in the Glacier du Géant basin [>3200 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] using terrestrial cosmogenic nuclides. Rockfall occurrence was compared to different climatic and glacial proxies. This study presents 55 new samples (including replicates) and 25 previously-published ages from nine sampling sites. In total, 62 dated rockfall events display ages ranging from 0.03 ± 0.02 ka to 88.40 ± 7.60 ka. Holocene ages and their uncertainties were used to perform a Kernel density function into a continuous dataset displaying rockfall probability per 100 years. Results highlight four Holocene periods of enhanced rockfall occurrence: (i) c. 7–5.7 ka, related to the Holocene Warm Periods; (ii) c. 4.5–4 ka, related to the Sub-boreal Warm Period; (iii) c. 2.3–1.6 ka, related to the Roman Warm Period; and (iv) c. 0.9–0.3 ka, related to the Medieval Warm Period and beginning of the Little Ice Age. Laser and photogrammetric three-dimensional (3D) models of the rock walls were produced to reconstruct the detached volumes from the best-preserved rockfall scars (≤0.91 ± 0.12 ka). A structural study was carried out at the scale of the Glacier du Géant basin using aerial photographs, and at the scale of four selected rock walls using the 3D models. Two main vertical and one horizontal fracture sets were identified. They correspond respectively to alpine shear zones and veins opened-up during long-term exhumation of the Mont Blanc massif. Our study confirms that climate primarily controls rockfall occurrence, and that structural settings, coincident at both the massif and the rock wall scales, control the rock-wall shapes as well as the geometry and volume of the rockfall events. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A semi-empirical approach to model pressure dependence of elastic moduli in granular media accounting for variations of coordination-number and Poisson-ratio

The effective medium theory based on the Hertz–Mindlin contact law is the most popular theory to relate dynamic elastic moduli (or elastic velocities) and confining pressure in dry granular media. However, many experimental results proved that the effective medium theory predicts pressure trends lower than experimental ones and over-predicts the shear modulus. To mitigate these mispredictions, several evolutions of the effective medium theory have been presented in the literature. Among these, the model named modified grain contact theory is an empirical approach in which three parametric curves are included in the effective medium theory model. Fitting the parameters of these curves permits to adjust the pressure trends of the Poisson ratio and the bulk modulus. In this paper, we present two variations of the modified grain contact theory model. First, we propose a minor modification in the fitting function for the porosity dependence of the calibration parameters that accounts for non-linearity in the vicinity of the critical porosity. Second, we propose a major modification that reduces the three-step modified grain contact theory model to a two-step model, by skipping the calibration parameter–porosity fit in the model and directly modelling the calibration parameter–pressure relation. In addition to an increased simplicity (the fitting parameters are reduced from 10 to 6), avoiding the porosity fit permits us to apply the model to laboratory data that are not provided with accurate porosity measurements. For this second model, we also estimate the uncertainty of the fitting parameters and the elastic velocities. We tested this model on dry core measurements from literature and we verified that it returns elastic velocity trends as good as the original modified grain contact theory model with a reduced number of fitting parameters. Possible developments of the new model to add predictive power are also discussed.     

Overview of groundwater sources and water-supply systems,and associated microbial pollution,in Finland,Norway and Iceland

The characteristics of groundwater systems and groundwater contamination in Finland, Norway and Iceland are presented, as they relate to outbreaks of disease. Disparities among the Nordic countries in the approach to providing safe drinking water from groundwater are discussed, and recommendations are given for the future. Groundwater recharge is typically high in autumn or winter months or after snowmelt in the coldest regions. Most inland aquifers are unconfined and therefore vulnerable to pollution, but they are often without much anthropogenic influence and the water quality is good. In coastal zones, previously emplaced marine sediments may confine and protect aquifers to some extent. However, the water quality in these aquifers is highly variable, as the coastal regions are also most influenced by agriculture, sea-water intrusion and urban settlements resulting in challenging conditions for water abstraction and supply. Groundwater is typically extracted from Quaternary deposits for small and medium municipalities, from bedrock for single households, and from surface water for the largest cities, except for Iceland, which relies almost entirely on groundwater for public supply. Managed aquifer recharge, with or without prior water treatment, is widely used in Finland to extend present groundwater resources. Especially at small utilities, groundwater is often supplied without treatment. Despite generally good water quality, microbial contamination has occurred, principally by norovirus and Campylobacter, with larger outbreaks resulting from sewage contamination, cross-connections into drinking water supplies, heavy rainfall events, and ingress of polluted surface water to groundwater.     

Do landslides follow landslides? Insights in path dependency from a multi-temporal landslide inventory

Landslides are a major category of natural disasters, causing loss of lives, livelihoods and property. The critical roles played by triggering (such as extreme rainfall and earthquakes), and intrinsic factors (such as slope steepness, soil properties and lithology) have previously successfully been recognized and quantified using a variety of qualitative, quantitative and hybrid methods in a wide range of study sites. However, available data typically do not allow to investigate the effect that earlier landslides have on intrinsic factors and hence on follow-up landslides. Therefore, existing methods cannot account for the potentially complex susceptibility changes caused by landslide events. In this study, we used a substantially different alternative approach to shed light on the potential effect of earlier landslides using a multi-temporal dataset of landslide occurrence containing 17 time slices. Spatial overlap and the time interval between landslides play key roles in our work. We quantified the degree to which landslides preferentially occur in locations where landslides occurred previously, how long such an effect is noticeable, and how landslides are spatially associated over time. We also investigated whether overlap with previous landslides causes differences in landslide geometric properties. We found that overlap among landslides demonstrates a clear legacy effect (path dependency) that has influence on the landslide affected area. Landslides appear to cause greater susceptibility for follow-up landslides over a period of about 10  years. Follow-up landslides are on average larger and rounder than landslides that do not follow earlier slides. The effect of earlier landslides on follow-up landslides has implications for understanding of the landslides evolution and the assessment of landslide susceptibility.     

Soil water content vertical profiles under natural conditions: matching of experiments and simulations by a conceptual model

The prediction of soil moisture content, θ, as a function of depth, z, and time, t, is of fundamental importance for applications in many hydrological processes. The main objective of this paper is to provide an approach to solve this problem at a local scale in soils with vegetation. The matching of soil moisture vertical profiles observed under natural conditions in grassy plots and their simulations by a conceptual model is presented. Experimental measurements were performed in a plot located in Central Italy, complete with hydrometeorological sensors specifically set up and equipped with a time domain reflectometry system providing the water content, θ_e(z, t). A conceptual model framework earlier proposed for two‐layered soil vertical profiles was modified and adopted for simulations. The changes concern the incorporation of evapotranspiration, the reduction of the original model for applications also to homogeneous soil vertical profiles, and a correction for the differences existing between assumed and observed initial moisture contents. In the model calibration, it was found that the effects of vegetation could be represented adequately by a fictitious soil vertical profile with a more permeable upper layer of saturated hydraulic conductivity, K_s, independent of time. Then, for the validation events, the model simulations in the stages of both infiltration and redistribution/evapotranspiration reproduced appropriately θ_e(z, t) with typical values of root mean square error in the range 0.0017–0.0657. Similar results were obtained by applying the modified two‐layered model for simulations of experimental data observed in three other plots located in Northern Italy and Germany. For all four vegetated sites, the two‐layer profile better matched the experimental data than the assumption of a homogeneous profile. Thus, the conceptual approach based on a two‐layered scheme for representing θ(z, t) in soils with vegetation appears to be appropriate for many hydrological applications. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influence of strong monsoon winds on the water quality around a marine cage-culture zone in a shallow and semi-enclosed bay in Taiwan

Influences of marine cage culture and monsoonal disturbances, northeasterly (NE) and southwesterly (SW) monsoons on the proximal marine environment were investigated across a gradient of sites in a semi-enclosed bay, Magong Bay (Penghu Islands, Taiwan). Elevated levels of ammonia produced by the cages were the main pollutant and distinguished the cage-culture and intermediary zones (1000 m away from the cages) from the reference zone in the NE monsoon, indicating currents produced by the strong monsoon may have extended the spread of nutrient-enriched waters without necessarily flushing such effluents outside Magong Bay. Moreover, the levels of chlorophyll-a, dissolved oxygen, and turbidity were distinguishable between two seasons, suggesting that resuspension caused by the NE monsoon winds may also influence the water quality across this bay. It indicated that the impacts of marine cage culture vary as a function of distance, and also in response to seasonal movements of water driven by local climatic occurrences.