The Water Budget Myth and Its Recharge Controversy: Linear vs. Nonlinear Models

The water budget myth, which is the idea that safe pumping must not exceed the initial recharge, gave rise to a controversy about the role of recharge in assessing the sustainability of groundwater development. To refute the concept of safe yield, a simplified water budget equation is used, which equals the total pumping rate to the sum of capture and storage change. Since initial recharge and discharge are canceled out from this equation, it is concluded that sustainable pumping has nothing to do with recharge. Investigating the assumptions underlying this equation, it is seen that it expresses the superposition principle, which implicitly assumes the groundwater reservoir can be depleted indefinitely and boundary conditions are an infinite source of water. To evaluate sustainability, however, the limits of the aquifer system must be examined accurately. Theoretically, this can only be accomplished applying nonlinear models, in which case setting up the simplified water budget equation is impossible without knowing the initial conditions. Hence, excluding recharge when assessing sustainable pumping may not be done inconsiderately, which is illustrated by two examples. An analytical solution, developed by Ernst in 1971 to simulate flow to a well in a polder area with a nonlinear function for drainage, even shows that it is not necessarily a misconception to assume the cone of depression stops expanding when the pumping rate is balanced by the infiltration rate.     

Optimized Seismic Threshold Monitoring – Part 2: Teleseismic Processing

v--vThis second paper (Part 2) pertaining to optimized site-specific threshold monitoring addresses the application of the method to regions covered by a teleseismic or a combined regional-teleseismic network. In the first paper (Part 1) we developed the method for the general case, and demonstrated its application to an area well-covered by a regional network (the Novaya Zemlya nuclear test site). In the present paper, we apply the method to the Indian and Pakistani nuclear test sites, and show results during the periods of nuclear testing by these two countries in May 1998. Since the coverage by regional stations in these areas is poor, an optimized approach requires the use of selected, high-quality stations at teleseismic distances.¶To optimize the threshold monitoring of these test sites, we use as calibration events either one of the nuclear explosions or a nearby earthquake. From analysis of the calibration events we derive values for array beamforming steering delays, filter bands, short-term averages (STA) lengths, phase travel times (P waves), and amplitude-magnitude relationships for each station. By applying these parameters, we obtain a monitoring capability of both test sites ranging from m_b 2.8-3.0 using teleseismic stations only. When including the nearby Nilore station to monitor the Indian tests, we show that the threshold can be reduced by about 0.4 magnitude units. In particular, we demonstrate that the Indian tests on 13 May, 1998, which were not detected by any known seismic station, must have corresponded to a magnitude (m_b) of less than 2.4.¶We also discuss the effect of a nearby aftershock sequence on the monitoring capability for the Pakistani test sites. Such an aftershock sequence occurred in fact on the day of the last Pakistani test (30 May, 1998), following a large (m_b 5.5) earthquake in Afghanistan located about 1100 km from the test site. We show that the threshold monitoring technique has sufficient resolution to suppress the signals from these interfering aftershocks without significantly affecting the true peak of the nuclear explosion on the threshold trace.     

Climate Change and the Disappearance of Malaria from England

As the world's climate continues to change there is concern that this may cause malaria to spread to new areas. Here we examine whether past changes in temperature, in addition to social changes, may have affected malaria in England. Our analysis indicates that cold summers experienced during the 1800s may have contributed to the disappearance of this disease from the country. As our summers become progressively warner it is unlikely that malaria will become firmly re-established on these shores, although the possibility of future outbreaks should not be ignored.     

Ionospheric convection during the magnetic storm of 20–21 March 1990

We report on the response of high-latitude ionospheric convection during the magnetic storm of March 20–21 1990. IMP-8 measurements of solar wind plasma and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF), ionospheric convection flow measurements from the Wick and Goose Bay coherent radars, EISCAT, Millstone Hill and Sondrestrom incoherent radars and three digisondes at Millstone Hill, Goose Bay and Qaanaaq are presented. Two intervals of particular interest have been identified. The first starts with a storm sudden commencement at 2243 UT on March 20 and includes the ionospheric activity in the following 7 h. The response time of the ionospheric convection to the southward turning of the IMF in the dusk to midnight local times is found to be approximately half that measured in a similar study at comparable local times during more normal solar wind conditions. Furthermore, this response time is the same as those previously measured on the dayside. An investigation of the expansion of the polar cap during a substorm growth phase based on Faraday’s law suggests that the expansion of the polar cap was nonuniform. A subsequent reconfiguration of the nightside convection pattern was also observed, although it was not possible to distinguish between effects due to possible changes in B_y and effects due to substorm activity. The second interval, 1200–2100 UT 21 March 1990, included a southward turning of the IMF which resulted in the B_z component becoming -10 nT. The response time on the dayside to this change in the IMF at the magnetopause was approximately 15 min to 30 min which is a factor of \sim2 greater than those previously measured at higher latitudes. A movement of the nightside flow reversal, possibly driven by current systems associated with the substorm expansion phases, was observed, implying that the nightside convection pattern can be dominated by substorm activity.     

The 3-D Sun and heliosphere at solar maximum

Bob Forsyth and Andy Breen report from the RAS G Discussion Meeting at the Geological Society on 11 January 2002. Presentations came from both the solar and heliospheric communities, on the 3-D structure and dynamics of the solar corona and heliosphere and their inter-relation during the present maximum in the solar activity cycle.     

Deep-sea faunal communities associated with a lost intermodal shipping container in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary,CA

Carrying assorted cargo and covered with paints of varying toxicity, lost intermodal containers may take centuries to degrade on the deep seafloor. In June 2004, scientists from Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI) discovered a recently lost container during a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) dive on a sediment-covered seabed at 1281 m depth in Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS). The site was revisited by ROV in March 2011. Analyses of sediment samples and high-definition video indicate that faunal assemblages on the container’s exterior and the seabed within 10 m of the container differed significantly from those up to 500 m. The container surface provides hard substratum for colonization by taxa typically found in rocky habitats. However, some key taxa that dominate rocky areas were absent or rare on the container, perhaps related to its potential toxicity or limited time for colonization and growth. Ecological effects appear to be restricted to the container surface and the benthos within ∼10 m.     

Funding low carbon cities: local perspectives on opportunities and risks

There are compelling reasons for policy makers to be interested in the low-carbon agenda. More than half of the world's population lives in, and more than half of the world's economic output comes from, cities. Up to 70% of global carbon emissions can also be attributed to consumption that takes place in cities. Recent research has shown that cost-effective investments in low-carbon options could deliver a 40% reduction in GHG emissions from cities by 2020, while also providing wider economic benefits such as enhanced competitiveness and increased employment. As yet, however, investments in low-carbon cities have not been made at scale due mainly to the scale of the finance required, local government budgetary constraints, and perceptions about their costs and benefits. With a focus on the UK, a contemporary account is provided of what local authorities see as the major financial risks associated with funding low-carbon cities. Practical proposals – which also have more general relevance to the future financing of low-carbon cities around the world – are offered on how local authorities, in conjunction with central government, the private sector, and institutional investors, can effectively manage these risks.

Policy relevance

Cities house more than half of the world's population, generate more than half of the world's economic output, and produce between 40% and 70% of all anthropogenic GHG emissions. In the UK, 70% of such emissions are under the influence of its local authorities. Thus, one of the key public policy challenges for the low-carbon transition is how it should be financed. There are several obstacles and related risks to this transition, including financial and legal obstacles and the differing views and perceptions of stakeholders. These can be attenuated, somewhat, by national government support at scale, local authority leadership, and cooperation between other authorities and the private sector, and the development of tools and guidance to reduce transaction costs.     

The Askervein hill project: A finite control volume prediction of three-dimensional flows over the hill

A three-dimensional nonlinear numerical model, that has been extensively used previously to predict environmental water flows, was applied to predict the flow over an isolated hill, Askervein. Predictions are reported for winds approaching the hill from 210 ° and 180 ° clockwise from north, both under almost neutral atmospheric conditions.The model predictions were compared with data collected during a major field study in 1983. From the comparisons it was concluded that the model predicts the mean flow variables with good accuracy. Larger discrepancies were found for quantities related to the turbulence, pointing to deficiencies in the turbulence model, and perhaps in some of the measurements.     

On the sublimation of ice particles on the surface of Mars; with applications to the 2007/8 Phoenix Scout mission

Experimental studies related to the sublimation of ice, in bulk or as small particles, alone or mixed with dust similar to that expected on the surface of Mars, are reported. The experiments, a cloud physics particle sublimation model, and a convection model presented by Ingersoll, all indicate a strong dependence of sublimation rate on temperature, and this appears to be the dominant factor, assuming that the relative humidity of the air is fairly low. In addition the rate of loss of water vapour appears to depend primarily on exposed surface area and less on particle size and the total mass of the sample, or the mass of ice in the sample. The 2007/8 Phoenix Scout mission plans to obtain and analyse samples of sub-surface ice from about 70° N on Mars. A concern is that these samples, in the form of ice chips of size about 1 mm diameter, could be prone to sublimation when exposed for prolonged periods (many hours) to a relatively warm and dry atmosphere. Our laboratory simulations confirm that this could be a problem if particles are simply left lying on the surface, but also indicate that samples kept suitably cold and collected together in confined piles will survive long enough for the collection and delivery (to the analysis instruments) procedure to be completed.     

Trace element geochemistry of the rhyolitic volcanic rocks,Central North Island,New Zealand. Phenocryst data

Data are presented for K, Ba, Sr, Rb, Li, Ga, Mg, Mn, and Fe for twelve rhyolitic plagioclases (An₂₈-An₄₆), one dacitic (An₅₃), and three andesitic plagioclases (An₆₈-An₈₁). Additional data are presented for Ga, Gr, V, Ni, Co, Sc, Y, La, Sr, and Ba for two augites, nine hypersthenes, and five hornblendes separated from the same rocks. Distribution factors have been calculated, using these data, and previously published results for coexisting groundmass compositions (=liquids).The plagioclases show a positive correlation between, and a progressive increase in K and Ba (range 0.09–0.58% and 61–610 p.p.m. respectively) with increasing Ab-content. Sr (range 465–880 p.p.m.) shows a well defined maximum between An₄₀-An₅₅. The plagioclases have extremely high K/Rb ratios (mostly > 1,000).This volcanic series is characterised by relatively Mg-rich pyroxenes and hornblendes. The augites contain higher Sc, Cr, Y, Sr, and Y relative to their coexisting hypersthenes, while the hornblendes exhibit higher Sc, V, Ba, Sr, Y, and La relative to coexisting hypersthenes. Very marked differences in concentrations of these elements exist between the rhyolitic and andesitic ferromagnesian phenocrysts. There is also evidence of a systematic distribution of Sc, V, Cr, Y, Co, and Ni between coexisting hypersthenes and hornblendes, and between these minerals and their coexisting whole rock and groundmass compositions.The data are discussed from a petrological viewpoint, as they are interpreted to indicate that the phenocrysts crystallised in the magmas in which they are found, and are not xenocrystic. No evidence of hybridisation or contamination, subsequent to the onset of crystallisation, is found.