Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

Separation of time scales in the HCA model for sand

Separation of time scales is used in a high cycle accumulation (HCA) model for sand. An important difficulty of the model is the limited applicability of the Miner’s rule to multiaxial cyclic loadings applied simultaneously or in a combination with monotonic loading. Another problem is the lack of simplified objective HCA formulas for geotechnical settlement problems. Possible solutions of these problems are discussed.     

Application of predictive regional ionosphere model to medium range RTK positioning

Real Time Kinematic (RTK) GPS positioning over longer distances requires a support of atmospheric (ionospheric and tropospheric) corrections, since the atmospheric errors decorrelate with the growing distances and cannot be completely eliminated by double differencing of the satellite observations. Currently, the most commonly used approach is to derive the atmospheric corrections at the reference station network and provide them in real time to the roving receiver. Another solution, proposed here, is to use predictive atmospheric models in order to derive the atmospheric corrections. This paper presents the test results of the performance assessment of the predictive ionosphere model (UWM-IPM) application to medium-range RTK positioning. The rover data collected within 25 to 67 km from the closest reference station were processed in the kinematic mode with the support of the ionospheric corrections derived from the UWM-IPM model. The RTK solution was derived in both single-and multi-baseline modes, and compared to the two reference solutions obtained without the ionospheric corrections. All numerical tests were carried out using the MPGPS software developed in cooperation with The Ohio State University; a recent extension to the software, developed at the University of Warmia and Mazury in Olsztyn, introduces the predictive ionosphere model to the RTK solution. The test results are very promising, and indicate that predicted ionosphere corrections can effectively support medium-range RTK positioning, and allow for fast ambiguity resolution over distances of several tens of kilometers under moderate ionospheric conditions.     

Magnetostratigraphic correlation of the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian boundary

A magnetic polarity pattern for Boreal and Sub-Boreal ammonite zones of the Upper Oxfordian to Lower Kimmeridgian was established and confirmed in four British sections, including the proposed Global Boundary Stratotype Section and Point (GSSP) on the Isle of Skye (Scotland) to define the base of the international Kimmeridgian Stage. A coeval pattern for Sub-Mediterranean ammonite zones was compiled from seven sections in Poland, one German section and multi-section composites from France and Spain. The mean paleopole for the European Craton (excluding Spain) at the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian boundary is 74.2°N, 181.3°E (Α₉₅ = 3.8°). The common magnetic polarity scale enables inter-correlation of ammonite subzones among these three faunal provinces and to the marine magnetic-anomaly M-Sequence. The proposed GSSP at the base of the Pictonia baylei Zone is near the base of an extended interval dominated by reversed polarity, which is interpreted to be Chron M26r. This GSSP level projects to the lower to middle part of the Epipeltoceras bimammatum Subzone, which is the middle subzone of this E. bimammatum Zone in the Sub-Mediterranean standard zonation. In contrast, the traditional placement of the Oxfordian–Kimmeridgian boundary in that Sub-Mediterranean standard zonation (base of Sutneria platynota Zone) is at the base of Chron M25r, or nearly 1 million years younger.     

Monitoring ionospheric scintillations and TEC at the Polish Polar Station on Spitsbergen: instrumentation and preliminary results

As a partial contribution to the International Polar Year, the Space Research Centre of the Polish Academy of Sciences has installed on the Polish Polar Station, located in the region of the Hornsund Bay in southern Spitsbergen, the equipment intended to monitor ionospheric scintillation and total electron content. We describe the equipment setup and the aims of the experiment. As an illustration of data analysis, we present the reconstruction of irregular structure of the ionosphere from the complex amplitude data, and the estimate of the form and drift of diffraction pattern based on the spaced receiver measurements.     

Seismic risk ranking for large dams in South Africa

Earthquake motion is one of the extreme loads acting on large dams. Dam owners and regulators must therefore ensure that dams are safely operated and present minimal risk to the public in case of extreme loads such as floods and earthquakes. Owners of many dams or officials in charge of dam safety programs may consider comparative assessment of the seismic risk associated with their dams and establish priorities for detailed evaluation. South Africa has in excess of 100 large state-owned dams and the characteristics of these dams have been used to perform a basic seismic hazard assessment and rank the vulnerability of these dams from the lowest to highest. One of the most decisive factors that contributes to the risk of a dam is the wall type; with gravity and earthfill dams being the most vulnerable to earthquake motion. Another aspect that needs further investigation is the downstream hazard potential which, if known to a better degree of accuracy, can provide more reasonable estimates of the risk factors.     

Modeling Electrical Field Distribution in Layered Geological Rock Formations with a Borehole Using the Coulomb Charges Method

The Coulomb charges method is used to model apparent resistivity measurements carried out in layered geological formations with a borehole using various devices. It is characterized by a high level of effectiveness and accuracy. The results are compared with the theoretical solutions for a homogenous medium with the borehole and invaded zone for point current source lateral devices. The relative error was less than 2% for different values of the range of the invaded zone and resistivity of invaded and true resistivity of formation.