Assessment of the design displacement values at seismic fault crossings and of their excess probability

Line structures such as pipelines that cross active faults should be designed to retain leak-tightness if the design displacement (Ddesign) occurs. Principal approaches to the Ddesign and rupture kinematics assessment are described. They are based on relationships between earthquake magnitude, rupture length and displacement, and on the detailed field data on a specific fault that crosses the pipeline route. Since the future offset at the crossing may exceed the design value, the probability of a displacement occurrence where the safety of the structure can not be ensured should be estimated. Assessment method on such event probability is described and exemplified through active fault studies carried out at several pipeline projects in Russia.     

On the turbulent Prandtl number in the stable atmospheric boundary layer

This study focuses on the behaviour of the turbulent Prandtl number, Pr _t , in the stable atmospheric boundary layer (SBL) based on measurements made during the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean experiment (SHEBA). It is found that Pr _t increases with increasing stability if Pr _t is plotted vs. gradient Richardson number, Ri; but at the same time, Pr _t decreases with increasing stability if Pr _t is plotted vs. flux Richardson number, Rf, or vs. ζ = z/L. This paradoxical behaviour of the turbulent Prandtl number in the SBL derives from the fact that plots of Pr _t vs. Ri (as well as vs. Rf and ζ) for individual 1-h observations and conventional bin-averaged values of the individual quantities have built-in correlation (or self-correlation) because of the shared variables. For independent estimates of how Pr _t behaves in very stable stratification, Pr _t is plotted against the bulk Richardson number; such plots have no built-in correlation. These plots based on the SHEBA data show that, on the average, Pr _t decreases with increasing stability and Pr _t < 1 in the very stable case. For specific heights and stabilities, though, the turbulent Prandtl number has more complicated behaviour in the SBL.     

Projected implications of climate change for road safety in Greater Vancouver, Canada

The elevated risk of collision while driving during precipitation has been well documented by the road safety community, with heavy rainfall events of particular concern. As the climate warms in the coming century, altered precipitation patterns are likely. The current study builds on the extensive literature on weather-related driving risks and draws on the climate change impact literature in order to explore the implications of climate change for road safety. It presents both an approach for conducting such analyses, as well as empirical estimates of the direction and magnitude of change in road safety for the highly urbanized Greater Vancouver metropolitan region on Canada’s west coast. The signal that emerges from the analysis is that projections of greater rainfall frequency are expected to translate into higher collision counts by the mid 2050s. The greatest adverse safety impact is likely to be concentrated on moderate to heavy rainfall days (≥ 10 mm), which are associated with more highly elevated risks today. This suggests that particular attention should be paid to future changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall events.     

Climate simulation over CORDEX Africa domain using the fifth-generation Canadian Regional Climate Model (CRCM5)

The new fifth-generation Regional Climate Model (CRCM5) was driven by ERA reanalyses for the period 1984–2008 over the African continent following the CORDEX experimental protocol. Overall the model succeeds in reproducing the main features of the geographical distribution and seasonal cycle of temperature and precipitation, the diurnal cycle of precipitation, and the West African Monsoon (WAM). Biases in surface temperature and precipitation are discussed in relation with some circulation defects noted in the simulation. In the African regions near the equator, the model successfully reproduces the double peak of rainfall due to the double passage of the tropical rainbelt, although it better simulates the magnitude and timing of the second peak of precipitation. CRCM5 captures the timing of the monsoon onset for the Sahel region but underestimates the magnitude of precipitation. The simulated diurnal cycle is quite well simulated for all of the regions, but is always somewhat in advance for the timing of rainfall peak. In boreal summer the CRCM5 simulation exhibits a weak cold bias over the Sahara and the maximum temperature is located too far south, resulting in a southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low. The region of maximum ascent in the deep meridional circulation of the Hadley cell is well located in the CRCM5 simulation, but it is somewhat too narrow. The core of the African Easterly Jet is of the right strength and almost at the right height, but it is displayed slightly southward, as a consequence of the southward bias in the position of the Saharan Heat Low and the thermal wind relationship. These biases appear to be germane to the WAM rainfall band being narrower and not moving far enough northward, resulting in a dry bias in the Sahel.     

Short-term hydrophysical and biological variability over the northeastern Black Sea continental slope as inferred from multiparametric tethered profiler surveys

This presentation introduces a new ocean autonomous profiler for multiparametric surveys at fixed geographical locations. The profiler moves down and up along a mooring line, which is taut vertically between a subsurface flotation and an anchor. This observational platform carries such modern oceanographic equipment as the Nortek Aquadopp-3D current meter and the Teledyne RDI Citadel CTD-ES probe. The profiler was successfully tested in the northeastern Black Sea during 2007–2009. By using the profiler, new data on the layered organization of the marine environment in the waters over the upper part of the continental slope were obtained. The temporal variability of the fine-scale structure of the acoustic backscatter at 2 MHz was interpreted along with biooptical and chemical data. The patchy patterns of the acoustic backscatter were associated with physical and biological processes such as the advection, propagation of submesoscale eddy, thermocline displacement, and diel migration of zooplankton. Further applications of the multidisciplinary moored profiler technology are discussed.     

Information and complexity measures applied to observed and simulated soil moisture time series

Abstract

Time series of soil moisture-related parameters provide important insights into the functioning of soil water systems. Analysis of patterns within such time series has been used in several studies. The objective of this work was to compare patterns in observed and simulated soil moisture contents to understand whether modelling leads to a substantial loss of information or complexity. The time series were observed at four plots in sandy soils within the USDA-ARS OPE3 experimental watershed, for a year; precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) were measured and estimated, respectively, and used for soil water flow simulation with the HYDRUS-1D software. The information content measures are the metric entropy and the mean information gain, and complexity measures are the fluctuation complexity and the effective measure complexity. These measures were computed based on the binary encoding of soil moisture time series, and used probabilities of patterns, i.e. probabilities of joint or sequential appearance of symbol sequences. The information content of daily soil moisture time series was much smaller than that of rainfall data, and had higher complexity, indicating that soil worked essentially as an information filter. Information content and complexity decreased and increased with depth, respectively, demonstrating the increase in the information filtering action of soil. The information measures of simulated soil moisture content were close to those of the measurements, indicating the successful simulation of patterns in the data. The spatial variability of the information measures for simulated soil moisture content at all depths was less pronounced than the one of measured time series. Compared with precipitation and estimated ET, soil moisture time series had more structure and less randomness in this work. The information measures can provide useful complementary knowledge about model performance and patterns in observation and modelling results.

Citation Pan, F., Pachepsky, Y. A., Guber, A. K., & Hill, R. L. (2011) Information and complexity measures applied to observed and simulated soil moisture time series. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(6), 1027–1039.     

Shallow virtual source redatuming by multi‐dimensional deconvolution

Recently, new on‐shore acquisition designs have been presented with multi‐component sensors deployed in the shallow sub‐surface (20 m–60 m). Virtual source redatuming has been proposed for these data to compensate for surface statics and to enhance survey repeatability. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of replacing the correlation‐based formalism that undergirds virtual source redatuming with multi‐dimensional deconvolution, offering various advantages such as the elimination of free‐surface multiples and the potential to improve virtual source repeatability. To allow for data‐driven calibration of the sensors and to improve robustness in cases with poor sensor spacing in the shallow sub‐surface (resulting in a relatively high wavenumber content), we propose a new workflow for this configuration. We assume a dense source sampling and target signals that arrive at near‐vertical propagation angles. First, the data are preconditioned by applying synthetic‐aperture‐source filters in the common receiver domain. Virtual source redatuming is carried out for the multi‐component recordings individually, followed by an intermediate deconvolution step. After this specific pre‐processing, we show that the downgoing and upgoing constituents of the wavefields can be separated without knowledge of the medium parameters, the source wavelet, or sensor characteristics. As a final step, free‐surface multiples can be eliminated by multi‐dimensional deconvolution of the upgoing fields with the downgoing fields.     

Surface phase transformations,surface complexation and solubilities of hydroxyapatite in the absence/presence of Cd(II) and EDTA

The removal of Cd from aqueous solutions by hydroxyapatite (HAP) was investigated with and without EDTA being present. Batch experiments were carried out using synthetic hydroxyapatite with Ca/P 1.57 and a specific surface area of 37.5 m²/g in the pH range 4–9 (25 °C; 0.1 M KNO₃). The surface composition of the solid phases were analysed by X-ray Photoelectron Spectroscopy (XPS). The surface layer of HAP was found to undergo a phase transformation with a (Ca + Cd)/P atomic ratio of 1.4 and the involvement of an ion exchange process (Ca²⁺ ↔ Cd²⁺). The amount of Cd removed from the solution increased with increasing pH, reaching ≈100% at pH 9. In the presence of EDTA Cd removal was reduced due to the formation of [CdEDTA]²⁻ in solution. The solubility of HAP increases in the presence of EDTA at pH values above 5, mainly due to the formation of [CaEDTA]²⁻. In contrast to this, the solubility was found to decrease in the presence of Cd²⁺ and CdEDTA²⁻. Using XPS the formation of a Cd-enriched HAP surface was found, which was interpreted as the formation of a solid solution of the general composition: Ca_8.4-xCd_x(HPO_4)1.6(PO_4)4.4(OH_)0.4${\text{Ca}}_{8.4-x}{\text{Cd}}_x({\text{HPO}}_4{)}_{1.6}({\text{PO}}_4{)}_{4.4}(\text{OH}{)}_{0.4}$.     

Vegetation and climate history in the Laptev Sea region (Arctic Siberia) during Late Quaternary inferred from pollen records

Paleoenvironmental records from a number of permafrost sections and lacustrine cores from the Laptev Sea region dated by several methods (¹⁴C-AMS, TL, IRSL, OSL and ²³⁰Th/U) were analyzed for pollen and palynomorphs. The records reveal the environmental history for the last ca 200 kyr. For interglacial pollen spectra, quantitative temperature values were estimated using the best modern analogue method. Sparse grass-sedge vegetation indicating arctic desert environmental conditions existed prior to 200 kyr ago. Dense, wet grass-sedge tundra habitats dominated during an interstadial ca 200–190 kyr ago, reflecting warmer and wetter summers than before. Sparser vegetation communities point to much more severe stadial conditions ca 190–130 kyr ago. Open grass and Artemisia communities with shrub stands (Alnus fruticosa, Salix, Betula nana) in more protected and moister places characterized the beginning of the Last Interglacial indicate climate conditions similar to present. Shrub tundra (Alnus fruticosa and Betula nana) dominated during the middle Eemian climatic optimum, when summer temperatures were 4–5 °C higher than today. Early-Weichselian sparse grass-sedge dominated vegetation indicates climate conditions colder and dryer than in the previous interval. Middle Weichselian Interstadial records indicate moister and warmer climate conditions, for example, in the interval 40–32 kyr BP Salix was present within dense, grass-sedge dominated vegetation. Sedge-grass-Artemisia-communities indicate that climate became cooler and drier after 30 kyr BP, and cold, dry conditions characterized the Late Weichselian, ca 26–16 kyr BP, when grass-dominated communities with Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, Cichoriaceae, Selaginella rupestris were present. From 16 to 12 kyr BP, grass-sedge communities with Caryophyllaceae, Asteraceae, and Cichoriaceae indicate climate was significantly warmer and moister than during the previous interval. The presence of Salix and Betula reflect temperatures about 4 °C higher than present at about 12–11 kyr BP, during the Allerød interval, but shrubs were absent in the Younger Dryas interval, pointing to a deterioration of climate conditions. Alnus fruticosa, Betula nana, Poaceae, and Cyperaceae dominate early Holocene spectra. Reconstructed absolute temperature values were substantially warmer than present (up to 12 °C). Shrubs gradually disappeared from coastal areas after 7.6 kyr BP when vegetation cover became similar to modern. A comparison of proxy-based paleoenvironmental reconstructions with the simulations performed by an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (CLIMBER-2) show good accordance between the regional paleodata and model simulations, especially for the warmer intervals.