Forecasting the Peak Amplitude of the 24th and 25th Sunspot Cycles and Accompanying Geomagnetic Activity

Forecasting solar and geomagnetic levels of activity is essential to help plan missions and to design satellites that will survive for their useful lifetimes. Therefore, amplitudes of the upcoming solar cycles and the geomagnetic activity were forecasted using the neuro-fuzzy approach. Results of this work allow us to draw the following conclusions: Two moderate cycles are estimated to approach their maximum sunspot numbers, 110 and 116 in 2011 and 2021, respectively. However, the predicted geomagnetic activity shown to be in phase with the peak of the 24th sunspot cycle will reach its minimum three years earlier, then it will rise sharply to reach the 25th maximum a year earlier (i.e., 2020). Our analysis of the three-century long sunspot number data-set suggests that the quasi-periodic variation of the long-term evolution of solar activity could explain the irregularity of the short-term cycles seen during the past decades.     

Quantum electron-acoustic solitary waves interaction in dense electron-ion plasmas

The effects of Bohm potential on the head-on collision between two quantum electron-acoustic solitary waves (QEASWs) in two electron species quantum plasma have been investigated using the extended Poincaré–Lighthill–Kuo (PLK) method. The analytical phase shifts after the head-on collision of the two QEASWs are derived. Numerically, in two cases (i.e., the dense solid state plasma and the dense astrophysical environments), the results show that the cold electron-to-hot electron number density ratio, the quantum corrections of diffraction and Fermi temperature of hot electrons have strong effects on the nature of the phase shifts and the trajectories of two QEASWs after collision.     

Dust extinction and X-ray emission from the starburst galaxy NGC 1482

We present the results based on multiwavelength imaging observations of the prominent dust lane starburst galaxy NGC 1482 aimed to investigate the extinction properties of dust existing in the extreme environment. (B-V) colour-index map derived for the starburst galaxy NGC 1482 confirms two prominent dust lanes running along its optical major axis and are found to extend up to ∼11 kpc. In addition to the main lanes, several filamentary structures of dust originating from the central starburst are also evident. Though, the dust is surrounded by exotic environment, the average extinction curve derived for this target galaxy is compatible with the Galactic curve, with R_V = 3.05, and imply that the dust grains responsible for the optical extinction in the target galaxy are not really different than the canonical grains in the Milky Way. Our estimate of total dust content of NGC 1482 assuming screening effect of dust is ∼2.7 × 10⁵ M_⊙, and provide lower limit due to the fact that our method is not sensitive to the intermix component of dust. Comparison of the observed dust in the galaxy with that supplied by the SNe to the ISM, imply that this supply is not sufficient to account for the observed dust and hence point towards the origin of dust in this galaxy through a merger like event.Our multiband imaging analysis reveals a qualitative physical correspondence between the morphologies of the dust and Hα emission lines as well as diffuse X-ray emission in this galaxy. Spatially resolved spectral analysis of the hot gas along outflows exhibit a gradient in the temperature. Similar gradient was also noticed in the measured values of metallicity, indicating that the gas in the halo is not yet enriched. High resolution, 2-8 keV Chandra image reveals a pair of point sources in the nuclear region with their luminosities equal to 2.27 × 10³⁹ erg s⁻¹ and 9.34 × 10³⁹ erg s⁻¹, and are in excess of the Eddington-limit of 1.5 M_⊙ accreting source. Spectral analysis of these sources exhibit an absorbed-power law with the hydrogen column density higher than that derived from the optical measurements.     

Trapped Ar isotopes in meteorite ALH 84001 indicate Mars did not have a thick ancient atmosphere

Water is not currently stable in liquid form on the martian surface due to the present mean atmospheric pressure of ～7 mbar and mean global temperature of ～220 K. However, geomorphic features and hydrated mineral assemblages suggest that Mars’ climate was once warmer and liquid water flowed on the surface. These observations may indicate a substantially more massive atmosphere in the past, but there have been few observational constraints on paleoatmospheric pressures. Here we show how the ⁴⁰Ar/³⁶Ar ratios of trapped gases within martian meteorite ALH 84001 constrain paleoatmospheric pressure on Mars during the Noachian era [～4.56–3.8 billion years (Ga)]. Our model indicates that atmospheric pressures did not exceed ～1.5 bar during the first 400 million years (Ma) of the Noachian era, and were <400 mbar by 4.16 Ga. Such pressures of CO₂ are only sufficient to stabilize liquid water on Mars’ surface at low latitudes during seasonally warm periods. Other greenhouse gases like SO₂ and water vapor may have played an important role in intermittently stabilizing liquid water at higher latitudes following major volcanic eruptions or impact events.     

Simultaneous UBVRI observations of the cataclysmic variable AE Aquarii: Temperatures and masses of fireballs

We report simultaneous multicolour observations in 5 bands (UBVRI) of the flickering variability of the cataclysmic variable AE Aqr. Our aim is to estimate the parameters (colours, temperature, size) of the fireballs that produce the optical flares. The observed rise times of the optical flares are in the interval 220‐440 s. We estimate the dereddened colours of the fireballs as (U ‐B)₀∼0.8‐1.4, (B ‐V)₀∼0.03‐0.24, and (V ‐I)₀∼0.26‐0.78. We find for the fireballs temperatures of 10000‐25000 K, masses of (7‐90)x10¹⁹ g, and sizes of (3‐7)x10⁹ cm (using a distance of d = 86 pc). These values refer to the peak of the flares observed in the UBVRI bands. The data are available upon request from the authors (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

The GREGOR polarimetric calibration unit

The new Solar telescope GREGOR is designed to observe small‐scale dynamic magnetic structures below a size of 70 km on the Sun with high spectral resolution and polarimetric accuracy. For this purpose, the polarimetric concept of GREGOR is based on a combination of post‐focus polarimeters with pre‐focus equipment for high precision calibration. The Leibniz‐Institute for Astrophysics Potsdam developed the GREGOR calibration unit which is an integral part of the telescope. We give an overview of the function and design of the calibration unit and present the results of extensive testing series done in the Solar Observatory “Einsteinturm” and at GREGOR (© 2012 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)     

Radiative decay of the 4d5(6S)5p z5,7Po states in Tc ii: comparison along the homologous and isoelectronic sequences. Application to astrophysics

Using three independent theoretical approaches (CA, HFR + CP, AUTOSTRUCTURE), oscillator strengths have been calculated for a set of Tc  ii transitions of astrophysical interest and the reliability of their absolute scale has been assessed. The examination of the spectra emitted by some Ap stars has allowed the identification of Tc  ii transitions in HD 125248. This Tc  ii detection should however await confirmation from spectral synthesis relying on dedicated model atmospheres. New partition functions are also provided for Tc  i , Tc  ii and Tc  iii for temperatures ranging between 4000 and 13 000 K.