Use of Geomorphological Information in Indirect Landslide Susceptibility Assessment

The objective of this paper is to evaluate the importance of geomorphological expert knowledge in the generation of landslide susceptibility maps, using GIS supported indirect bivariate statistical analysis. For a test area in the Alpago region in Italy a dataset was generated at scale 1:5,000. Detailed geomorphological maps were generated, with legends at different levels of complexity. Other factor maps, that were considered relevant for the assessment of landslide susceptibility, were also collected, such as lithology, structural geology, surficial materials, slope classes, land use, distance from streams, roads and houses. The weights of evidence method was used to generate statistically derived weights for all classes of the factor maps. On the basis of these weights, the most relevant maps were selected for the combination into landslide susceptibility maps. Six different combinations of factor maps were evaluated, with varying geomorphological input. Success rates were used to classify the weight maps into three qualitative landslide susceptibility classes. The resulting six maps were compared with a direct susceptibility map, which was made by direct assignment of susceptibility classes in the field. The analysis indicated that the use of detailed geomorphological information in the bivariate statistical analysis raised the overall accuracy of the final susceptibility map considerably. However, even with the use of a detailed geomorphological factor map, the difference with the separately prepared direct susceptibility map is still significant, due to the generalisations that are inherent to the bivariate statistical analysis technique.     

Stochastic Modelling of the Impact of Flood Protection Measures Along the River Waal in the Netherlands

River flooding is a problem of international interest. In the past few years many countries suffered from severe floods. A large part of the Netherlands is below sea level and river levels. The Dutch flood defences along the river Rhine are designed for water levels with a probability of exceedance of 1/1250 per year. These water levels are computed with a hydrodynamic model using a deterministic bed level and a deterministic design discharge. Traditionally, the safety against flooding in the Netherlands is obtained by building and reinforcing dikes. Recently, a new policy was proposed to cope with increasing design discharges in the Rhine and Meuse rivers. This policy is known as the Room for the River (RfR) policy, in which a reduction of flood levels is achieved by measures creating space for the river, such as dike replacement, side channels and floodplain lowering. As compared with dike reinforcement, these measures may have a stronger impact on flow and sediment transport fields, probably leading to stronger morphological effects. As a result of the latter the flood conveyance capacity may decrease over time. An a priori judgement of safety against flooding on the basis of an increased conveyance capacity of the river can be quite misleading. Therefore, the determination of design water levels using a fixed-bed hydrodynamic model may not be justified and the use of a mobile-bed approach may be more appropriate. This problem is addressed in this paper, using a case study of the river Waal (one of the Rhine branches in the Netherlands). The morphological response of the river Waal to a flood protection measure (floodplain lowering in combination with summer levee removal) is analysed. The effect of this measure is subject to various sources of uncertainty. Monte Carlo simulations are applied to calculate the impact of uncertainties in the river discharge on the bed levels. The impact of the “uncertain” morphological response on design flood level predictions is analysed for three phenomena, viz. the impact of the spatial morphological variation over years, the impact of the seasonal morphological variation and the impact of the morphological variability around bifurcation points. The impact of seasonal morphological variations turns out to be negligible, but the other two phenomena appear to have each an appreciable impact (order of magnitude 0.05–0.1 m) on the computed design water levels. We have to note however, that other sources of uncertainty (e.g. uncertainty in hydraulic roughness predictor), which may be of influence, are not taken into consideration. In fact, the present investigation is limited to the sensitivity of the design water levels to uncertainties in the predicted bed level.     

Petrologic, isotopic, and radiometric age constraints on the origin and tectonic history of the Malino Metamorphic Complex, NW Sulawesi, Indonesia

The Malino Metamorphic Complex (MMC) is located at the western end of the north arm of Sulawesi. It consists of mica schists and gneisses (derived from proximal turbidite and granitoid protoliths), with intercalations of greenschist, amphibolite, marble, and quartzite, forming an E-W elongated dome-like structure bounded on all sides by faults. The age of the MMC is constrained between Devonian and Early Carboniferous. This Paleozoic age, the presence of Archean and Proterozoic inherited zircons, and the isotopic signature of the mica schists and gneisses indicate that the terrane was derived from the New Guinea-Australian margin of Gondwana. Similarities with basement rocks in the Bird’s Head suggests a common origin. Greenschists forming a discontinuous selvage (metamorphic carapace) around the complex were derived from adjacent autochthonous Paleogene formations. The rocks of the MMC show a Barrovian-type progression from greenschist through epidote-amphibolite to amphibolite facies. P–T estimations suggest a depth of burial of up to 27–30 km. K/Ar and 40Ar/39Ar cooling ages of 23–11 Ma, and a 7 Ma age for unconformably overlying volcanic rocks, indicate that the complex was exhumed during the Miocene. Two tectonic scenarios are considered: 1. the continental fragment docked with Sulawesi during the Mesozoic and was exhumed as a metamorphic core complex during the Miocene; 2. it was subducted beneath the north arm during the late Oligocene and then rapidly returned back to the surface.     

Memorial landscapes: analytic questions and metaphors

Over the past two decades, geographers have probed the intersection of collective memory and urban space. Their sustained interest in the subject reflects an understanding of the social condition of commemoration and the important role that space plays in the process and politics of collective memory. Along with other critical social scientists, geographers envision these public symbols as part of larger cultural landscapes that reflect and legitimate the normative social order. A review of the extant literature indicates that geographers scrutinize memorial landscapes through three conceptual lenses that may be understood via the metaphors of ‘text,’ ‘arena,’ and ‘performance.’ These metaphors are in turn mobilized through a series of analytic questions that serve to identify the interests served and denied by landscape ‘texts,’ the ‘arenas’ in which they are produced, and the ways in which they are enacted via ‘performance.’ This article’s synopsis of the subfield’s predominant metaphors and its attendant questions contributes to the ongoing cultural geographic project of articulating and implementing methods for interpreting landscapes as open-ended symbolic systems.

Abrupt climate change and transient climates during the Paleogene: a marine perspective

Detailed investigations of high latitude sequences recently collected by the Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) indicate that periods of rapid climate change often culminated in brief transient climates, with more extreme conditions than subsequent long term climates. Two examples of such events have been identified in the Paleogene; the first in latest Paleocene time in the middle of a warming trend that began several million years earlier: the second in earliest Oligocene time near the end of a Middle Eocene to Late Oligocene global cooling trend. Superimposed on the earlier event was a sudden and extreme warming of both high latitude sea surface and deep ocean waters. Imbedded in the latter transition was an abrupt decline in high latitude temperatures and the brief appearance of a full size continental ice-sheet on Antarctica. In both cases the climate extremes were not stable, lasting for less than a few hundred thousand years, indicating a temporary or transient climate state. Geochemical and sedimentological evidence suggest that both Paleogene climate events were accompanied by reorganizations in ocean circulation, and major perturbations in marine productivity and the global carbon cycle. The Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum was marked by reduced oceanic turnover and decreases in global delta 13C and in marine productivity, while the Early Oligocene glacial maximum was accompanied by intensification of deep ocean circulation and elevated delta 13C and productivity. It has been suggested that sudden changes in climate and/or ocean circulation might occur as a result of gradual forcing as certain physical thresholds are exceeded. We investigate the possibility that sudden reorganizations in ocean and/or atmosphere circulation during these abrupt transitions generated short-term positive feedbacks that briefly sustained these transient climatic states.     

A critical evaluation of multi‐proxy dendroclimatology in northern Finland

Twentieth‐century summer (July–August) temperatures in northern Finland are reconstructed using ring widths, maximum density and stable carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C) of Scots pine tree rings, and using combinations of these proxies. Verification is based on the coefficient of determination (r²), reduction of error (RE) and coefficient of efficiency (CE) statistics. Of the individual proxies, δ¹³C performs best, followed by maximum density. Combining δ¹³C and maximum density strengthens the climate signal but adding ring widths leads to little improvement. Blue intensity, an inexpensive alternative to X‐ray densitometry, is shown to perform similarly. Multi‐proxy reconstruction of summer temperatures from a single site produces strong correlations with gridded climate data over most of northern Fennoscandia. Since relatively few trees are required (<15) the approach could be applied to long sub‐fossil chronologies where replication may be episodically low. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Electron microprobe study of a ‘mysterite’-bearing inclusion from the Krymka LL-chondrite

The black inclusion from the Krymka LL3 chondrite previously found to contain ‘mysterite’ by Lewiset al. (1979) belongs to a hitherto unknown class of carbonaceous chondrites. Its olivine and pyroxene compositions. Fo 97–99 and En 96, respectively, are characteristic of carbonaceous chondrites and its plagioclase composition. An 100, is characteristic of C3's. It contains a peculiar group of Co-, Cr-rich metal grains whose compositions are similar, but not identical, to those in C2 chondrites and which also bear some similarities to those in Renazzo. Its weight ratios of total $\text{Fe}\text{SiO}{}_2$ and $\text{solSiO}{}_2\text{MgO}$ are 0.74 and 1.43, respectively, and its atomic ratio of $\text{Si}\text{Al}$ is 10.7, exactly the same as in carbonaceous chondrites. Its bulk chemical composition is very close to that of the Murchison C2 chondrite. The association of mysterite with a special type of carbonaceous chondrite material suggests that mysterite formed by low-temperature condensation in a different region of the nebula from other carbonaceous chondrites.     

The Gibraltar Arc seismogenic zone (part 2): Constraints on a shallow east dipping fault plane source for the 1755 Lisbon earthquake provided by tsunami modeling and seismic intensity

The Great Lisbon earthquake has the largest documented felt area of any shallow earthquake and an estimated magnitude of 8.5–9.0. The associated tsunami ravaged the coast of SW Portugal and the Gulf of Cadiz, with run-up heights reported to have reached 5–15 m. While several source regions offshore SW Portugal have been proposed (e.g.— Gorringe Bank, Marquis de Pombal fault), no single source appears to be able to account for the great seismic moment as well as all the historical tsunami amplitude and travel time observations. A shallow east dipping fault plane beneath the Gulf of Cadiz associated with active subduction beneath Gibraltar, represents a candidate source for the Lisbon earthquake of 1755.Here we consider the fault parameters implied by this hypothesis, with respect to total slip, seismic moment, and recurrence interval to test the viability of this source. The geometry of the seismogenic zone is obtained from deep crustal studies and can be represented by an east dipping fault plane with mean dimensions of 180 km (N–S) × 210 km (E–W). For 10 m of co-seismic slip an Mw 8.64 event results and for 20 m of slip an Mw 8.8 earthquake is generated. Thus, for convergence rates of about 1 cm/yr, an event of this magnitude could occur every 1000–2000 years. Available kinematic and sedimentological data are in general agreement with such a recurrence interval. Tsunami wave form modeling indicates a subduction source in the Gulf of Cadiz can partly satisfy the historical observations with respect to wave amplitudes and arrival times, though discrepancies remain for some stations. A macroseismic analysis is performed using site effect functions calculated from isoseismals observed during instrumentally recorded strong earthquakes in the region (M7.9 1969 and M6.8 1964). The resulting synthetic isoseismals for the 1755 event suggest a subduction source, possibly in combination with an additional source at the NW corner of the Gulf of Cadiz can satisfactorily explain the historically observed seismic intensities. Further studies are needed to sample the turbidites in the adjacent abyssal plains to better document the source region and more precisely calibrate the chronology of great earthquakes in this region.     

Integration of local–global upscaling and grid adaptivity for simulation of subsurface flow in heterogeneous formations

We propose a methodology, called multilevel local–global (MLLG) upscaling, for generating accurate upscaled models of permeabilities or transmissibilities for flow simulation on adapted grids in heterogeneous subsurface formations. The method generates an initial adapted grid based on the given fine-scale reservoir heterogeneity and potential flow paths. It then applies local–global (LG) upscaling for permeability or transmissibility [7], along with adaptivity, in an iterative manner. In each iteration of MLLG, the grid can be adapted where needed to reduce flow solver and upscaling errors. The adaptivity is controlled with a flow-based indicator. The iterative process is continued until consistency between the global solve on the adapted grid and the local solves is obtained. While each application of LG upscaling is also an iterative process, this inner iteration generally takes only one or two iterations to converge. Furthermore, the number of outer iterations is bounded above, and hence, the computational costs of this approach are low. We design a new flow-based weighting of transmissibility values in LG upscaling that significantly improves the accuracy of LG and MLLG over traditional local transmissibility calculations. For highly heterogeneous (e.g., channelized) systems, the integration of grid adaptivity and LG upscaling is shown to consistently provide more accurate coarse-scale models for global flow, relative to reference fine-scale results, than do existing upscaling techniques applied to uniform grids of similar densities. Another attractive property of the integration of upscaling and adaptivity is that process dependency is strongly reduced, that is, the approach computes accurate global flow results also for flows driven by boundary conditions different from the generic boundary conditions used to compute the upscaled parameters. The method is demonstrated on Cartesian cell-based anisotropic refinement (CCAR) grids, but it can be applied to other adaptation strategies for structured grids and extended to unstructured grids.