ANALYSIS OF COUNT DATA USING POISSON REGRESSION*

In geographical research the data of interest are often in the form of counts. Standard regression analysis is inappropriate for such data, but if certain assumptions are met, a form of regression based on the Poisson distribution can be used. This paper illustrates the use of Poisson regression in the computer package GLIM with an example from historical geography. Apprentice migration to Edinburgh is regressed on a combination of categorical, count, and continuous explanatory variables.     

Late Quaternary stratigraphy of the northern Rockall trough and Faeroe-Shetland channel,northeast Atlantic Ocean

A late Quaternary deep-water stratigraphic framework has been established for the deep-water areas (>450m) of the northern Rockall Trough and Faeroe-Shetland Channel. Four stratigraphic units (1–4) are identified; these are primarily biostratigraphic units based on dinoflagellate cyst evidence. Unit 1 represents the late Weichselian glacial (pre-13 000 yr BP); unit 2 the Late Glacial Interstadial (11 000-13 000 yr BP); unit 3 is of Younger Dryas age (10 000-11 000 yr BP); and unit 4 represents the Holocene interglacial (post-10 000 yr BP). This stratigraphy is supported by the discovery of the mixed Vedde Ash (10 600 yr BP) and North Atlantic Ash zone 1, and the Saksunarvatn Ash (9000–9100 yr BP), concentrated in units 3 and 4 respectively. The sedimentology indicates that the oceanographic regime underwent a major change between the glacial and interglacial stages. This is marked by the onset of strong bottom current activity, allied to the restoration of overflow of the Norwegian Sea Deep Water into the North Atlantic, towards the end of the Younger Dryas Stadial. Despite intense bioturbation and bottom-current reworking the basic stratigraphic framework is maintained. Recognition of two volcanic ash markers enables correlation with established onshore and offshore sequences of marine and non-marine environments.     

A Milankovitch scale for Cenomanian time

A detailed cyclostratigraphy is present in the rhythmically bedded Cenomanian hemipelagic chalks of the northern Anglo-Paris Basin, which can be correlated over 100,000 km². Individual decimetre-scale couplets probably represent the precession cycle (modes at 18 or 23 kyr), and can be readily grouped in sets averaging five, indicative of the short cycle of eccentricity (100 kyr). A composite cyclostratigraphy for the basin is presented here, and is used as the basis for a Cenomanian time-scale (20 and 100 kyr units). The total duration of the Cenomanian thus obtained (4.4 Myr) compares well with recent radiometric dates of 4.0–4.5 Myr. The time-scale is used to estimate the length of ammonite, inoceramid, and planktonic foraminiferal zones, the rates of formation of authigenic minerals (glauconite), sedimentation rates and the duration of transgressions and anoxic events.     

Incorporating variable source area hydrology into a curve-number-based watershed model

Many water quality models use some form of the curve number (CN) equation developed by the Soil Conservation Service (SCS; U.S. Depart of Agriculture) to predict storm runoff from watersheds based on an infiltration-excess response to rainfall. However, in humid, well-vegetated areas with shallow soils, such as in the northeastern USA, the predominant runoff generating mechanism is saturation-excess on variable source areas (VSAs). We reconceptualized the SCS–CN equation for VSAs, and incorporated it into the General Watershed Loading Function (GWLF) model. The new version of GWLF, named the Variable Source Loading Function (VSLF) model, simulates the watershed runoff response to rainfall using the standard SCS–CN equation, but spatially distributes the runoff response according to a soil wetness index. We spatially validated VSLF runoff predictions and compared VSLF to GWLF for a subwatershed of the New York City Water Supply System. The spatial distribution of runoff from VSLF is more physically realistic than the estimates from GWLF. This has important consequences for water quality modeling, and for the use of models to evaluate and guide watershed management, because correctly predicting the coincidence of runoff generation and pollutant sources is critical to simulating non-point source (NPS) pollution transported by runoff. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Acceleration Phase of Coronal Mass Ejections: II. Synchronization of the Energy Release in the Associated Flare

We analyze the relationship between the acceleration of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and the energy release in associated flares, employing a sample of 22 events in which the CME kinematics were measured from the pre-eruption stage up to the post-acceleration phase. The data show a distinct correlation between the duration of the acceleration phase and the duration of the associated soft X-ray (SXR) burst rise, whereas the CME peak acceleration and velocity are related to the SXR peak flux. In the majority of events the acceleration started earlier than the SXR burst, and it is usually prolonged after the SXR burst maximum. In about one half of the events the acceleration phase is very closely synchronized with the fastest growth of the SXR burst. An additional one quarter of the events may be still considered as relatively well-synchronized, whereas in the remaining quarter of the events there is a considerable mismatch. The results are interpreted in terms of the feedback relationship between the CME dynamics and the reconnection process in the wake of the CME.     

Evaluation of snow models in terrestrial biosphere models using ground observation and satellite data: impact on terrestrial ecosystem processes

Snow is important for water management, and an important component of the terrestrial biosphere and climate system. In this study, the snow models included in the Biome‐BGC and Terrestrial Observation and Prediction System (TOPS) terrestrial biosphere models are compared against ground and satellite observations over the Columbia River Basin in the US and Canada and the impacts of differences in snow models on simulated terrestrial ecosystem processes are analysed. First, a point‐based comparison of ground observations against model and satellite estimates of snow dynamics are conducted. Next, model and satellite snow estimates for the entire Columbia River Basin are compared. Then, using two different TOPS simulations, the default TOPS model (TOPS with TOPS snow model) and the TOPS model with the Biome‐BGC snow model, the impacts of snow model selection on runoff and gross primary production (GPP) are investigated. TOPS snow model predictions were consistent with ground and satellite estimates of seasonal and interannual variations in snow cover, snow water equivalent, and snow season length; however, in the Biome‐BGC snow model, the snow pack melted too early, leading to extensive underpredictions of snow season length and snow covered area. These biases led to earlier simulated peak runoff and reductions in summer GPP, underscoring the need for accurate snow models within terrestrial ecosystem models. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Self-Organized Criticality Model of Solar Plasma Eruption Processes

We propose a new two-dimensional self-organized critical model of eruption process based on the concept of magnetic elements. Solar flares are considered as avalanches of annihilations of magnetic elements. This approach allows to describe eruptive processes in the solar atmosphere in the physically clear manner and easily simulate their basic properties. The model proposed yields a power law distribution of flare energy in a good agreement with observations. One can also expand the model to take into account new factors and ideas. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Bank‐toe processes in incised channels: the role of apparent cohesion in the entrainment of failed bank materials

Numerous processes may instigate bank retreat and the consequent collection of failed cohesive materials at the bank toe. Cohesion between the failed material and the substrate can provide additional strength to resist direct fluvial entrainment. Failed, cohesive material can act as a form of natural bank‐toe protection by consuming and diverting flow energy that may otherwise be used to further scour the basal zone of incising channels. Investigations in Goodwin Creek, Mississippi, have revealed the existence of apparent cohesion between failed, cohesive blocks and their underlying surface. The method used to assess this cohesion involved a pulley system mounted on a tripod and supporting a load cell. Mean and maximum apparent‐cohesion values of 1·08 kPa and 2·65 kPa, respectively, were measured in this way, identifying a source that bonds blocks to the underlying surface. Cohesion values and types vary spatially and temporally. Tensiometric tests beneath blocks suggest that cohesion resulting from matric suction alone may be as much as 3·5 kPa in summer and 1·8 kPa in winter. Apparent cohesion is believed to have been sufficient to help prevent removal of the largest blocks by a peak flow of 66·4m³/s on 23 September 1997. Maximum excess shear stress required to entrain a D₇₅ block can be augmented by as much as 97% by the presence of apparent cohesion at the block–substrate interface when compared with a condition with zero apparent cohesion at the block underside. Given these findings, it is no longer sufficient to estimate block entrainment in the basal area from block size or bed roughness alone, as in a Shields‐type approach. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Crack-fill porphyroblastesis

Garnet‐mica schists from the Scottish Highlands provide new insight into an important mechanism of phyllosilicate growth, termed ‘crack‐fill porphyroblastesis’. It is shown that grain boundary dilatancy, microcracking and porphyroblast‐matrix decoupling all play a significant role in facilitating growth in regimes of noncoaxial shear. With respect to chlorite porphyroblasts, there are three growth stages. Following nucleation, the initial phase of growth is by progressive matrix replacement, to preserve inclusion trails of fine carbonaceous material. The second growth stage produced new optically continuous inclusion‐free chlorite on the {001} margins of those crystals at a high angle to the schistosity. This growth results from decoupling at the porphyroblast–matrix contact on those margins at a high angle to the principal axis of extension. The development of dilatant cracks at porphyroblast margins provides a sink for material migrating down P_f and chemical potential gradients. This causes precipitation of new optically continuous ‘clear’ chlorite on the pre‐existing, heavily included core. The porphyroblast–matrix boundary continues to dilate after porphyroblast growth had terminated, producing plano‐convex quartz‐rich strain shadows. Similar growth behaviour is recognised in biotite porphyroblasts, indicating that ‘crack‐fill porphyroblastesis’ is an important growth mechanism for phyllosilicates in actively deforming metamorphic rocks. It also indicates that decoupling and crack‐fill development at porphyroblast margins could be important in controlling the pattern of material transfer, and may have significant implications for matrix permeability and fluid‐flow characteristics.     

Geochemistry of lead contaminated wetland soils amended with phosphorus

To remediate Pb contaminated soils it is proposed that phosphorus can be amended to the soils to transform the Pb into poorly soluble Pb-phosphate mineral phases. However, remediation strategies must account for variable Pb speciation and site-specific factors. In this study soil mineralogy and Pb speciation in soils from P-amended field trials at sites within the Coeur d’Alene River Basin in Idaho, USA were investigated. The soils are contaminated from mining activities and are enriched with Fe and Mn. Selective extraction of the soils indicated that the Fe oxides are poorly crystalline. XRD of the soil clay size fractions identified quartz, muscovite, kaolinite, siderite, lepidocrocite, and chlorite minerals. Amendment with P fertilizer dissolved the siderite. No Pb–phosphate minerals were detected by XRD. Electron microprobe analysis showed direct correlations between Pb, Fe, and Mn in the unamended soils, and negative correlations between Pb and Si. Lead and Mn were strongly correlated. In the amended soils Fe and P were strongly correlated. Results indicate that the Pb is associated with poorly crystalline Fe and Mn oxides, and that added P is primarily associated with Fe oxide phases. Comparisons of pore water Pb concentrations with chloropyromorphite and plumbogummite solubility suggest that in the phosphate-amended soils the pore waters are undersaturated in these phases, whereas several of the control soil pore waters were oversaturated, indicating the added phosphate suppressed the Pb solubility. Results from this research provide insight into the geochemistry occurring in the P-remediated soils that will help in making management and remediation decisions.