An advanced numerical model of elastomeric seismic isolation bearings

The nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi in March 2011 has led the nuclear community to consider seismic isolation for new large light water and small modular reactors to withstand the effects of beyond design basis loadings, including extreme earthquakes. The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission is sponsoring a research project that will quantify the response of low damping rubber (LDR) and lead rubber (LR) bearings under loadings associated with extreme earthquakes. Under design basis loadings, the response of an elastomeric bearing is not expected to deviate from well‐established numerical models, and bearings are not expected to experience net tension. However, under extended or beyond design basis shaking, elastomer shear strains may exceed 300% in regions of high seismic hazard, bearings may experience net tension, the compression and tension stiffness will be affected by isolator lateral displacement, and the properties of the lead core in LR bearings will degrade in the short‐term because of substantial energy dissipation. New mathematical models of LDR and LR bearings are presented for the analysis of base isolated structures under design and beyond design basis shaking, explicitly considering both the effects of lateral displacement and cyclic vertical and horizontal loading. These mathematical models extend the available formulations in shear and compression. Phenomenological models are presented to describe the behavior of elastomeric isolation bearings in tension, including the cavitation and post‐cavitation behavior. The elastic mechanical properties make use of the two‐spring model. Strength degradation of LR bearing under cyclic shear loading due to heating of lead core is incorporated. The bilinear area reduction method is used to include variation of critical buckling load capacity with lateral displacement. The numerical models are coded in OpenSees, and the results of numerical analysis are compared with test data. The effect of different parameters on the response is investigated through a series of analyses. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Fast approximate EM induction modeling of metallic and UXO targets using a permeable prism

The time-domain EM induction response of non-magnetic and magnetic targets can be approximated using a conductive permeable prism composed of six faces of conductive plates, each face being composed of a set of conductive ribbons. The effect of magnetic permeability is included by the use of two “apparent flux gathering” coefficients, and two “effective magnetic permeability” coefficients, in the axial and transverse directions. These four magnetic property coefficients are a function of physical properties and geometry of the target, but are independent of prism orientation relative to a transmitter. The approximation algorithm is computationally fast, allowing inversions for target parameters to be achieved in seconds. The model is tested on profiles acquired with a Geonics EM63 time-domain EM metal detector over a non-magnetic copper pipe target, and a steel artillery shell in horizontal and vertical orientations. Results show that this approximation to a permeable prism has a capability of fitting geometric, conductivity and magnetic parameters at both early and late sample times. The magnetic parameters show strong change from early to late times on the EMI decay curve, indicating that the magnetic properties of the target have non-linear characteristics. It is proposed that these magnetic parameters and the nature of their non-linearity may carry additional discrimination information for distinguishing between intact munitions and scrap in UXO studies.     

Climate and human health: synthesizing environmental complexity and uncertainty

Broad relationships between weather and human health have long been recognized, and there is currently a large body of research examining the impacts of climate change on human health. Much of the literature in this area examines climate–health relationships at global or regional levels, incorporating mostly generalized responses of pathogens and vectors to broad changes in climate. Far less research has been done to understand the direct and indirect climate-mediated processes involved at finer scales. Thus, some studies simplify the role of climate and may over- or under-estimate the potential response, while others have begun to highlight the subtle and complex role for climate that is contingent on other relevant processes occurring in natural and social environments. These fundamental processes need to be understood to determine the effects of past, current and future climate variation and change on human health. We summarize the principal climate variables and climate-dependent processes that are believed to impact human health across a representative set of diseases, along with key uncertainties in these relationships.     

Advances in the use of observed spatial patterns of catchment hydrological response

Over the past two decades there have been repeated calls for the collection of new data for use in developing hydrological science. The last few years have begun to bear fruit from the seeds sown by these calls, through increases in the availability and utility of remote sensing data, as well as the execution of campaigns in research catchments aimed at providing new data for advancing hydrological understanding and predictive capability. In this paper we discuss some philosophical considerations related to model complexity, data availability and predictive performance, highlighting the potential of observed patterns in moving the science and practice of catchment hydrology forward. We then review advances that have arisen from recent work on spatial patterns, including in the characterisation of spatial structure and heterogeneity, and the use of patterns for developing, calibrating and testing distributed hydrological models. We illustrate progress via examples using observed patterns of snow cover, runoff occurrence and soil moisture. Methods for the comparison of patterns are presented, illustrating how they can be used to assess hydrologically important characteristics of model performance. These methods include point-to-point comparisons, spatial relationships between errors and landscape parameters, transects, and optimal local alignment. It is argued that the progress made to date augers well for future developments, but there is scope for improvements in several areas. These include better quantitative methods for pattern comparisons, better use of pattern information in data assimilation and modelling, and a call for improved archiving of data from field studies to assist in comparative studies for generalising results and developing fundamental understanding.     

System identification of the Vincent Thomas suspension bridge using earthquake records

The Vincent Thomas Bridge in the Los Angeles metropolitan area, is a critical artery for commercial traffic flow in and out of the Los Angeles Harbor, and is at risk in the seismically active Southern California region, particularly because it straddles the Palos Verdes fault zone. A combination of linear and non‐linear system identification techniques is employed to obtain a complete reduced‐order, multi‐input–multi‐output (MIMO) dynamic model of the Vincent Thomas Bridge based on the dynamic response of the structure to the 1987 Whittier and 1994 Northridge earthquakes. Starting with the available acceleration measurements (which consists of 15 accelerometers on the bridge structure and 10 accelerometers at various locations on its base), an efficient least‐squares‐based time‐domain identification procedure is applied to the data set to develop a reduced‐order, equivalent linear, multi‐degree‐of‐freedom model. Although not the main focus of this study, the linear system identification method is also combined with a non‐parametric identification technique, to generate a reduced‐order non‐linear mathematical model suitable for use in subsequent studies to predict, with good fidelity, the total response of the bridge under arbitrary dynamic environments. Results of this study yield measurements of the equivalent linear modal properties (frequencies, mode shapes and non‐proportional damping) as well as quantitative measures of the extent and nature of non‐linear interaction forces arising from strong ground shaking. It is shown that, for the particular subset of observations used in the identification procedure, the apparent non‐linearities in the system restoring forces are quite significant, and they contribute substantially to the improved fidelity of the model. Also shown is the potential of the identification technique under discussion to detect slight changes in the structure's influence coefficients, which may be indicators of damage and degradation in the structure being monitored. Difficulties associated with accurately estimating damping for lightly damped long‐span structures from their earthquake response are discussed. The technical issues raised in this paper indicate the need for added spatial resolution in sensor instrumentation to obtain identified mathematical models of structural systems with the broadest range of validity. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Volumetric characteristics of lava flows from interferometric radar and multispectral satellite data: the 1995 Fernandina and 1998 Cerro Azul eruptions in the western Galápagos

We have used a suite of remotely sensed data, numerical lava flow modeling, and field observations to determine quantitative characteristics of the 1995 Fernandina and 1998 Cerro Azul eruptions in the western Galápagos Islands. Flank lava flow areas, volumes, instantaneous effusion rates, and average effusion rates were all determined for these two eruptions, for which only limited syn-eruptive field observations are available. Using data from SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2, we determined that the 1995 Fernandina flow covers a subaerial area of 6.5×10⁶ m² and has a subaerial dense rock equivalent (DRE) volume of 42×10⁶ m³. Field observations, ATSR satellite data, and the FLOWGO numerical model allow us to determine that the effusion rate declined exponentially from a high of ~60–200 m³ s^-1 during the first few hours to <5 m³ s^-1 prior to ceasing after 73 days, with a mean effusion rate of 4–16 m³ s^-1. Integrating the ATSR-derived, exponentially declining effusion rate over the eruption duration produces a total (subaerial + submarine) DRE volume of between 27 and 100×10⁶ m³, the range in values being due to differing assumptions about heat loss characteristics; only values in the higher part of this range are consistent with the independently derived subaerial volume. Using SPOT, TOPSAR, ERS-1, and ERS-2 data, we determine that the 1998 Cerro Azul flow is 16 km long, covers 16 km², and has a DRE volume of 54×10⁶ m³. FLOWGO produces at-vent velocity and effusion rate values of 11 m s^-1 and ~600 m³ s^-1, respectively. The velocity value agrees well with the 12 m s^-1 estimated in the field. The mean effusion rate (total DRE volume/duration) was 7–47 m³ s^-1. Dike dimensions, fissure lengths, and pressure gradients along the conduit based on magma chamber depth estimates of 3–5 km produce mean effusion rates for the two eruptions that range over nearly four orders of magnitude, the range being due to uncertainty in the magma viscosity, dike dimensions, and pressure gradient between magma chamber and vent. Although somewhat consistent with mean effusion rates from other techniques, their wide range makes them less useful. The exponentially declining effusion rates during both eruptions are consistent with release of elastic strain being the driving mechanism of the eruptions. Our results provide independent input parameters for previously published theoretical relationships between magma chamber pressurization and eruption rates that constrain chamber volumes and increases in volume prior to eruption, as well as time constants of exponential decay during the eruption. The results and theoretical relationships combine to indicate that at both volcanoes probably 25–30% of the volumetric increase in the magma chamber erupted as lava onto the surface. In both eruptions the lava flow volumes are less than 1% of the magma chamber volume.     

Flood hydrology and geomorphic effectiveness in the central Appalachians

This paper compares hydrologic records and geomorphic effects of several historic floods in the central Appalachian region of the eastern United States. The most recent of these, occurring in November 1985, was the largest ever recorded in West Virginia, with peak discharges exceeding the estimated 500-year discharge at eight of eleven stations in the South Branch Potomac River and Cheat River basins. Geomorphic effects on valley floors included some of the most severe and widespread floodplain erosion ever documented and exceeded anything seen in previous floods, even though comparable or greater rainfall and unit discharge have been observed several times in the region over the past 50 years. Comparison of discharge-drainage area plots suggests that the intensity and spatial scale of the November 1985 flood were optimal for erosion of valley floors along the three forks of the South Branch Potomac River. However, when a larger geographic area is considered, rainfall totals and discharge-drainage area relationships are insufficient predictors of geomorphic effectiveness for valley floors at drainage areas of 250 to 2500 km². Unit stream power was calculated for the largest recorded flood discharge at 46 stations in the central Appalachians. Maximum values of unit stream power are developed in bedrock canyons, where the boundaries are resistant to erosion and the flow cross-section cannot adjust its width to accommodate extreme discharges. The largest value was 2570 W m^?2; record discharge at most stations was associated with unit stream power values less than 300 W m^?2, but more stations exceeded this value in the November 1985 flood than in the other floods that were analysed. Unit stream power at indirect discharge measurement sites near areas experiencing severe erosion in this and other central Appalachian floods generally exceeded 300 W m^?2; reach-average values of 200-500 W m^?2 were calculated for valleys where erosion damage was most widespread. Despite these general trends, unit stream power is not a reliable predictor of geomorphic change for individual sites. Improved understanding of flood impacts will require more detailed investigation of interactions between local site characteristics and patterns of flood flow over the valley floor.