Using climate-FVS to project landscape-level forest carbon stores for 100 years from field and LiDAR measures of initial conditions

Background

Forest resources supply a wide range of environmental services like mitigation of increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). As climate is changing, forest managers have added pressure to obtain forest resources by following stand management alternatives that are biologically sustainable and economically profitable. The goal of this study is to project the effect of typical forest management actions on forest C levels, given a changing climate, in the Moscow Mountain area of north-central Idaho, USA. Harvest and prescribed fire management treatments followed by plantings of one of four regionally important commercial tree species were simulated, using the climate-sensitive version of the Forest Vegetation Simulator, to estimate the biomass of four different planted species and their C sequestration response to three climate change scenarios.

Results

Results show that anticipated climate change induces a substantial decrease in C sequestration potential regardless of which of the four tree species tested are planted. It was also found that Pinus monticola has the highest capacity to sequester C by 2110, followed by Pinus ponderosa, then Pseudotsuga menziesii, and lastly Larix occidentalis.

Conclusions

Variability in the growth responses to climate change exhibited by the four planted species considered in this study points to the importance to forest managers of considering how well adapted seedlings may be to predicted climate change, before the seedlings are planted, and particularly if maximizing C sequestration is the management goal.     

Implications of sampling design and sample size for national carbon accounting systems

Background  

Countries willing to adopt a REDD regime need to establish a national Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system that provides information on forest carbon stocks and carbon stock changes. Due to the extensive areas covered by forests the information is generally obtained by sample based surveys. Most operational sampling approaches utilize a combination of earth-observation data and in-situ field assessments as data sources.     

Scalar Transport over Forested Hills

Numerical simulations of scalar transport in neutral flow over forested ridges are performed using both a 1.5-order mixing-length closure scheme and a large-eddy simulation. Such scalar transport (particularly of CO₂) has been a significant motivation for dynamical studies of forest canopy–atmosphere interactions. Results from the 1.5-order mixing-length simulations show that hills for which there is significant mean flow into and out of the canopy are more efficient at transporting scalars from the canopy to the boundary layer above. For the case with a source in the canopy this leads to lower mean concentrations of tracer within the canopy, although they can be very large horizontal variations over the hill. These variations are closed linked to flow separation and recirculation in the canopy and can lead to maximum concentrations near the separation point that exceed those over flat ground. Simple scaling arguments building on the analytical model of Finnigan and Belcher (Q J Roy Meteorol Soc 130:1–29, 2004) successfully predict the variations in scalar concentration near the canopy top over a range of hills. Interestingly this analysis suggests that variations in the components of the turbulent transport term, rather than advection, give rise to the leading order variations in scalar concentration. The scaling arguments provide a quantitative measure of the role of advection, and suggest that for smaller/steeper hills and deeper/sparser canopies advection will be more important. This agrees well with results from the numerical simulations. A large-eddy simulation is used to support the results from the mixing-length closure model and to allow more detailed investigation of the turbulent transport of scalars within and above the canopy. Scalar concentration profiles are very similar in both models, despite the fact that there are significant differences in the turbulent transport, highlighted by the strong variations in the turbulent Schmidt number both in the vertical and across the hill in the large-eddy simulation that are not represented in the mixing-length model.     

Global and regional coupled climate sensitivity to the parameterization of rainfall interception

A coupled land?Catmosphere model is used to explore the impact of seven commonly used canopy rainfall interception schemes on the simulated climate. Multiple 30-year simulations are conducted for each of the seven methods and results are analyzed in terms of the mean climatology and the probability density functions (PDFs) of key variables based on daily data. Results show that the method used for canopy interception strongly affects how rainfall is partitioned between canopy evaporation and throughfall. However, the impact on total evaporation is much smaller, and the impact on rainfall and air temperature is negligible. Similarly, the PDFs of canopy evaporation and transpiration for six selected regions are strongly affected by the method used for canopy interception, but the impact on total evaporation, temperature and precipitation is negligible. Our results show that the parameterization of rainfall interception is important to the surface hydrometeorology, but the seven interception parameterizations examined here do not cause a statistically significant impact on the climate of the coupled model. We suggest that broad scale climatological differences between coupled climate models are not likely the result of how interception is parameterized. This conclusion is inconsistent with inferences derived from earlier uncoupled simulations, or simulations using very simplified climate models.     

The effect of environmental change on human migration

The influence of the environment and environmental change is largely unrepresented in standard theories of migration, whilst recent debates on climate change and migration focus almost entirely on displacement and perceive migration to be a problem. Drawing on an increasing evidence base that has assessed elements of the influence of the environment on migration, this paper presents a new framework for understanding the effect of environmental change on migration. The framework identifies five families of drivers which affect migration decisions: economic, political, social, demographic and environmental drivers. The environment drives migration through mechanisms characterised as the availability and reliability of ecosystem services and exposure to hazard. Individual migration decisions and flows are affected by these drivers operating in combination, and the effect of the environment is therefore highly dependent on economic, political, social and demographic context. Environmental change has the potential to affect directly the hazardousness of place. Environmental change also affects migration indirectly, in particular through economic drivers, by changing livelihoods for example, and political drivers, through affecting conflicts over resources, for example. The proposed framework, applicable to both international and internal migration, emphasises the role of human agency in migration decisions, in particular the linked role of family and household characteristics on the one hand, and barriers and facilitators to movement on the other in translating drivers into actions. The framework can be used to guide new research, assist with the evaluation of policy options, and provide a context for the development of scenarios representing a range of plausible migration futures.     

Knowing, farming and climate change adaptation in North-Central Namibia

The agro-ecological knowledge held by Ovambo farmers in North Central Namibia has, for centuries, given them resilience to high levels of climate variability and associated impacts. New research, conducted in North Central Namibia, suggests that knowledge co-production between farmers and agricultural extension workers may, in addition, strengthen adaptive capacity to future climate change. However, this useful kind of knowledge co-production is far from automatic, and indeed the conditions which make it more likely to happen are not well understood. This paper explores agro-ecological knowledge in North Central Namibia as adaptive capacity, and suggests avenues for better conceptualising and understanding the conditions for adaptive capacity-enhancing knowledge co-production.     

Occurrence, distribution and characteristics of beached plastic production pellets on the island of Malta (central Mediterranean)

The distribution, abundance and chemical characteristics of plastic production pellets on beaches of the island of Malta have been determined. Pellets were observed at all locations visited and were generally most abundant (>1000 m⁻² at the surface) on the backshores of beaches with a westerly aspect. Most pellets were disc-shaped or flattened cylinders and could be categorised as white, yellow, amber or brown. The polymeric matrix of all pellets analysed by infrared spectroscopy was polyethylene and the degree of yellowing or darkening was associated with an increase in the carbonyl index, hence extent of photo-oxidation or aging. Qualitatively, pellets are similar to those reported for other regions of the Mediterranean in surveys spanning three decades, suggesting that they are a general and persistent characteristic of the region.     

Can we improve the spatial predictions of seabed sediments? A case study of spatial interpolation of mud content across the southwest Australian margin

Spatially continuous data of environmental variables is often required for marine conservation and management. However, information for environmental variables is usually collected by point sampling, particularly for the marine region. Thus, methods generating such spatially continuous data by using point samples to estimate values for unknown locations become essential tools. Such methods are, however, often data- or even variable-specific and it is difficult to select an appropriate method for any given dataset. In this study, 14 methods (37 sub-methods) are compared using samples of mud content with five levels of sample density across the southwest Australian margin. Bathymetry, distance-to-coast, slope and geomorphic province were used as secondary variables. Ten-fold cross validation with relative mean absolute error (RMAE) and visual examination were used to assess the performance of these methods. A total of 1850 prediction datasets are produced and used to assess the performance of the methods and the effects of other factors considered. Considering both the accuracy and the visual examination, we found that a combined method (i.e., random forest and ordinary kriging: RKrf) is the most robust method. This method is novel, with a RMAE up to 17% less than that of the control. No threshold in sample density was detected in relation to prediction accuracy. No consistent patterns are observed between the performance of the methods and data variation. The RMAE of three most accurate methods is about 30% lower than that of the best methods in previous publications, highlighting the robustness of the methods selected in this study. The implications and limitations of this study are discussed and a number of suggestions are provided for further studies.     

Epifaunal worm tubes on Lower Jurassic (Lower Lias) ammonites from Dorset

Over 40 ammonites, mostly Promicroceras, with epifaunal worm tubes are described from the Lower Jurassic, Charmouth Mudstone Formation (Lias Group) of Dorset. Serpulids that were overgrown by the ammonites or responded to the ammonites’ growth attached to juvenile, living ammonites. Some epifaunal serpulids attached post-mortem, indicating oxygenated bottom water, which was rare in the lower Charmouth Mudstone Formation. Other serpulids do not conform to either pre- or post-mortem growth predictions and require individual assessment. The commonest pattern of growth for serpulids on live juvenile ammonites was attachment in the umbilical seam, with later growth onto, and finally around, the venter. Reconstructing this pattern shows that serpulids kept their aperture at 6 o’clock with respect to the orientation of the living ammonite (105-115° behind the ammonite aperture) throughout life. Reorientation of growth lines in serpulid worms just before the aperture suggests some worm tubes were fully grown. The 6 o’clock position of the aperture enabled feeding currents generated by the worms to parallel currents generated by swimming ammonites, thus maximizing food gathering and confirming that ammonites swam backwards. The mid-ventral position enabled the worm to deploy its branchia on both sides of the ammonite. Growth on ammonites was beneficial to the worms, but parasitic to the ammonites. Promicroceras with epifaunal worm tubes died at smaller sizes than unencumbered examples and size at death correlates inversely to extra weight of worm tubes. Uniformitarian comparisons suggest fossil serpulid worms grew in one season and that Promicroceras reached full size in two or three years.