An Upper Pliocene coarse pumice breccia generated by a shallow submarine explosive eruption,Milos, Greece

The Filakopi Pumice Breccia (FPB) is a very well exposed, Pliocene volcaniclastic unit on Milos, Greece, and has a minimum bulk volume of 1 km³. It consists of three main units: (A) basal lithic breccia (4–8 m) mainly composed of angular to subangular, andesitic and dacitic clasts up to 2.6 m in diameter; (B) very thickly bedded, poorly sorted pumice breccia (16–17 m); and (C) very thick, reversely graded, grain-supported, coarse pumice breccia (6.5–20 m), at the top. The depositional setting is well constrained as shallow marine (up to a few hundred metres) by overlying fossiliferous and bioturbated mudstone. This large volume of fine pumice clasts is interpreted to be the product of an explosive eruption from a submarine vent because: (1) pumice clasts are the dominant component; (2) the coarse pumice clasts (>64 mm) have complete quenched margins; (3) very large (>1 m) pumice clasts are common; (4) overall, the formation shows good hydraulic sorting; and (5) a significant volume of ash was deposited together with the coarsest pyroclasts.The bed forms in units A and B suggest deposition from lithic-rich and pumiceous, respectively, submarine gravity currents. In unit C, the coarse (up to 6.5 m) pumice clasts are set in matrix that grades upwards from diffusely stratified, fine (1–2 cm) pumice clasts at the base to laminated shard rich mud at the top. The coarse pumice clasts in unit C were settled from suspension and the framework was progressively infilled by fine pumice clasts from waning traction currents and then by water-settled ash. The FPB displays important features of the products of submarine explosive eruptions that result from the ambient fluid being seawater, rather than volcanic gas or air. In particular, submarine pyroclastic deposits are characterised by the presence of very coarse juvenile pumice clasts, pumice clasts with complete quenched rims, and good hydraulic sorting.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article if you access the article at . A link in the frame on the left on that page takes you directly to the supplementary material.Editorial responsibility: J. Donelly-Nolan     

Influence of wave and sediment dynamics on cordgrass (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Spartina anglica</Emphasis>) growth and sediment accumulation on an exposed intertidal flat

Isolated patches ofSpartina anglica (cordgrass) at two sites on a wave-exposed mid-intertidal flat of the 340 km² Manukau Harbor (Auckland, New Zealand) have developed very differently since being planted in the mid-1970s. Although the two sites are only 0.5 km apart and at the same intertidal elevation,Spartina patches at the easternmost site (site 1) have as much as an order of magnitude higher biomass and accumulated sediment volume thanSpartina patches at site 2. A field experiment was conducted to characterize waves and associated sediment dynamics at each site, which might explain whySpartina patches at the two sites have developed so differently over the past 25 yr or so. Suspended sediments were measured and wave characteristics were inferred from subsurface pressure data measured for 5 wk at bothSpartina sites and at an intermediate location. Bed-orbital speeds and frictional wave-energy dissipation were consistently lower at the easternmost site with the largerSpartina patches. The west-to-east reduction in wave energy is due to the spatial arrangement of theSpartina sites relative to the predominant wind fetches. The wave-energy gradient is maintained by tidal-cycle variations in fetch and bed friction and results in a west-to-east reduction in sand suspension. Silt, which is largely resuspended under southwest winds, is redeposited in the low wave-energy conditions in and around the larger site 1Spartina patches. Shell accumulation bySpartina patches at site 1 occurs infrequently, during southwest winds >10 m s⁻¹ and water depths >0.7 m, when waves are least attenuated by bed friction. Large between-site differences in the growth of and sediment accumulation by theSpartina patch are consistent with the observed wave-energy gradient. The resulting spatial patterns of silt, sand, and shell resuspension and deposition directly influence the rate of sediment accumulation bySpartina patches and the composition of accumulated sediment on this wave-exposed intertidal flat.     

The dissolution of synthetic Na-boltwoodite in sodium carbonate solutions

Uranyl silicates such as uranophane and Na-boltwoodite appear to control the solubility of uranium in certain contaminated sediments at the US Department of Energy Hanford site [Liu, C., Zachara, J.M., Qafoku, O., McKinley, J.P., Heald, S.M., Wang, Z. 2004. Dissolution of uranyl microprecipitates in subsurface sediments at Hanford Site, USA. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta68, 4519-4537.]. Consequently, the solubility of synthetic Na-boltwoodite, Na(UO₂)(SiO₃OH) · 1.5H₂O, was determined over a wide range of bicarbonate concentrations, from circumneutral to alkaline pH, that are representative of porewater and groundwater compositions at the Hanford site and calcareous environments generally. Experiments were open to air. Results show that Na-boltwoodite dissolution was nearly congruent and its solubility and dissolution kinetics increased with increasing bicarbonate concentration and pH. A consistent set of solubility constants were determined from circumneutral pH (0 added bicarbonate) to alkaline pH (50 mM added bicarbonate). Average or 5.85 ± 0.0.26; using the Pitzer ion-interaction model or Davies equation, respectively. These values are close to the one determined by [Nguyen, S.N., Silva, R.J., Weed, H.C., Andrews, Jr., J.E., 1992. Standard Gibbs free energies of formation at the temperature 303.15 K of four uranyl silicates: soddyite, uranophane, sodium boltwoodite, and sodium weeksite. J. Chem. Thermodynamics24, 359-376.] under very different conditions (pH 4.5, Ar atmosphere).     

Folding of Europa's icy lithosphere: an analysis of viscous-plastic buckling and subsequent topographic relaxation

Potential contractional folds on Jupiter's icy moon Europa have been identified. The best example is at the extensional band Astypalaea Linea, where a series of subtle topographic undulations, 25 km in wavelength, possess parasitic tectonic features that support a folding origin. A scenario has been qualitatively proposed, whereby folds form via unstable contraction of the icy lithosphere, compensate for extension elsewhere on Europa, and then subsequently relax. Here, we quantitatively address this scenario, applying a model for viscous-plastic buckling of planetary lithospheres and finite element simulations of topographic relaxation. Our results suggest that the lithosphere of Europa could indeed be unstable, but the low required surface temperatures limit fold formation to higher latitudes, and the high required driving stresses (9–10 MPa) are difficult to achieve on the satellite. The depth to the brittle–ductile transition is well constrained, and high thermal gradients are indicated, implying heat flows near 100 mW m⁻². In addition, topographic relaxation progresses so slowly even at these heat flows that it is not a viable mechanism to eliminate such features over the age of Europa's surface. Given the paucity of identified folds, we conclude that the necessary conditions for their formation are rare and that lithospheric folding is a minor mechanism for compensating the large amounts of extension seen elsewhere on Europa.     

A late glacial Antarctic climate teleconnection and variable Holocene seasonality at Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand

We present the first continuous paleolimnological reconstruction from the North Island of New Zealand (37°S) that spans the last 48.2?cal kyr. A tephra- and radiocarbon-based chronology was developed to infer the timing of marked paleolimnological changes in Lake Pupuke, Auckland, New Zealand, identified using sedimentology, magnetic susceptibility, grain size and geochemistry (carbon, nitrogen and sulphur concentrations and fluxes, carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes). Variable erosional influx, biomass and benthic REDOX conditions are linked to changing effective precipitation and seasonality within three inferred broad intervals of climatic change: (1) the Last Glacial Coldest Phase (LGCP) of reduced effective precipitation and cooler temperatures, from 28.8 to 18.0?cal kyr BP, (2) the Last Glacial Interglacial Transition (LGIT) of increasing effective precipitation and warmer conditions, from 18.0 to 10.2?cal?kyr?BP, and (3) a Holocene interval of high effective precipitation, beginning with a warm period of limited seasonality from 10.2?cal?kyr?BP and followed by increasing seasonality from 7.6?cal?kyr?BP. The LGCP and LGIT also contain millennial-scale climate events, including the coldest inferred glacial conditions during the LGCP from 27.8 to 26.0 and 22.0?C19.0?cal?kyr?BP, and a climate reversal in the LGIT associated with lower lake level, from 14.5 to 13.8?cal?kyr?BP, coeval with the Antarctic Cold Reversal. The onset of seasonal thermal stratification occurred at 5.7?cal?kyr?BP and was linked to natural eutrophication of Lake Pupuke, which produced enhanced organic sedimentation.     

Will climate change exacerbate water stress in Central Asia?

Millions of people in the geopolitically important region of Central Asia depend on water from snow- and glacier-melt driven international rivers, most of all the Syr Darya and Amu Darya. The riparian countries of these rivers have experienced recurring water allocation conflicts ever since the Soviet Union collapsed. Will climate change exacerbate water stress and thus conflicts? We have developed a coupled climate, land-ice and rainfall-runoff model for the Syr Darya to quantify impacts and show that climatic changes are likely to have consequences on runoff seasonality due to earlier snow-melt. This will increase water stress in unregulated catchments because less water will be available for irrigation in the summer months. Threats from geohazards, above all glacier lake outbursts, are likely to increase as well. The area at highest risk is the densely populated, agriculturally productive, and politically unstable Fergana Valley. Targeted infrastructural developments will be required in the region. If the current mismanagement of water and energy resources can be replaced with more effective resource allocation mechanisms through the strengthening of transboundary institutions, Central Asia will be able to successfully address these future climate-related challenges.     

The influence of hurricane risk on tourist destination choice in the Caribbean

Climate change could have major implications for the global tourism industry if changing environmental conditions alter the attractiveness of holiday destinations. Countries with economies dependent on tourism and with tourism industries reliant on vulnerable natural resources are likely to be particularly at risk. We investigate the implications that climate-induced variations in Atlantic hurricane activity may have for the tourism-dependent Caribbean island of Anguilla. Three hundred tourists completed standardised questionnaires and participated in a choice experiment to determine the influence hurricane risk has on their risk perceptions and decisions regarding holiday preferences. The hurricane season had been considered by 40?% of respondents when making their holiday choice, and the beaches, climate and tranquility of the island were more important than coral reef-based recreational activities in determining holiday destination choice. Choice models demonstrated that respondents were significantly less likely to choose holiday options where hurricane risk is perceived to increase, and significantly more likely to choose options that offered financial compensation for increased risk. However, these choices and decisions varied among demographic groups, with older visitors, Americans, and people who prioritize beach-based activities tending to be most concerned about hurricanes. These groups comprise a significant component of the island’s current clientele, suggesting that perceived increases in hurricane risk may have important implications for the tourism economy of Anguilla and similar destinations. Improved protection of key environmental features (e.g. beaches) may be necessary to enhance resilience to potential future climate impacts.     

Probabilistic prediction of Indian summer monsoon rainfall using global climate models

Probabilistic seasonal predictions of rainfall that incorporate proper uncertainties are essential for climate risk management. In this study, three different multi-model ensemble (MME) approaches are used to generate probabilistic seasonal hindcasts of the Indian summer monsoon rainfall based on a set of eight global climate models for the 1982–2009 period. The three MME approaches differ in their calculation of spread of the forecast distribution, treated as a Gaussian, while all three use the simple multi-model subdivision average to define the mean of the forecast distribution. The first two approaches use the within-ensemble spread and error residuals of ensemble mean hindcasts, respectively, to compute the variance of the forecast distribution. The third approach makes use of the correlation between the ensemble mean hindcasts and the observations to define the spread using a signal-to-noise ratio. Hindcasts are verified against high-resolution gridded rainfall data from India Meteorological Department in terms of meteorological subdivision spatial averages. The use of correlation for calculating the spread provides better skill than the other two methods in terms of rank probability skill score. In order to further improve the skill, an additional method has been used to generate multi-model probabilistic predictions based on simple averaging of tercile category probabilities from individual models. It is also noted that when such a method is used, skill of probabilistic forecasts is improved as compared with using the multi-model ensemble mean to define the mean of the forecast distribution and then probabilities are estimated. However, skill of the probabilistic predictions of the Indian monsoon rainfall is too low.     

A robust sequential CO2 emissions strategy based on optimal control of atmospheric CO2 concentrations

This paper formally introduces the concept of mitigation as a stochastic control problem. This is illustrated by applying a digital state variable feedback control approach known as Non-Minimum State Space (NMSS) control to the problem of specifying carbon emissions to control atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the presence of uncertainty. It is shown that the control approach naturally lends itself to integrating both anticipatory and reflexive mitigation strategies within a single unified framework. The framework explicitly considers the closed-loop nature of climate mitigation, and employs a policy orientated optimisation procedure to specify the properties of this closed-loop system. The product of this exercise is a control law that is suitably conditioned to regulate atmospheric CO₂ concentrations through assimilating online information within a 25-year review cycle framework. It is shown that the optimal control law is also robust when faced with significant levels of uncertainty about the functioning of the global carbon cycle.     

Does public policy support or undermine climate change adaptation? Exploring policy interplay across different scales of governance

Policy makers have now recognised the need to integrate thinking about climate change into all areas of public policy making. However, the discussion of ‘climate policy integration’ has tended to focus on mitigation decisions mostly taken at international and national levels. Clearly, there is also a more locally focused adaptation dimension to climate policy integration, which has not been adequately explored by academics or policy makers. Drawing on a case study of the UK, this paper adopts both a top-down and a bottom-up perspective to explore how far different sub-elements of policies within the agriculture, nature conservation and water sectors support or undermine potential adaptive responses. The top-down approach, which assumes that policies set explicit aims and objectives that are directly translated into action on the ground, combines a content analysis of policy documents with interviews with policy makers. The bottom-up approach recognises the importance of other actors in shaping policy implementation and involves interviews with actors in organisations within the three sectors. This paper reveals that neither approach offers a complete picture of the potentially enabling or constraining effects of different policies on future adaptive planning, but together they offer new perspectives on climate policy integration. These findings inform a discussion on how to implement climate policy integration, including auditing existing policies and ‘climate proofing’ new ones so they support rather than hinder adaptive planning.