A multi-dimensional assessment of urban vulnerability to climate change in Sub-Saharan Africa

In this paper, we develop and apply a multi-dimensional vulnerability assessment framework for understanding the impacts of climate change-induced hazards in Sub-Saharan African cities. The research was carried out within the European/African FP7 project CLimate change and Urban Vulnerability in Africa, which investigated climate change-induced risks, assessed vulnerability and proposed policy initiatives in five African cities. Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) was used as a main case with a particular focus on urban flooding. The multi-dimensional assessment covered the physical, institutional, attitudinal and asset factors influencing urban vulnerability. Multiple methods were applied to cover the full range of vulnerabilities and to identify potential response strategies, including: model-based forecasts, spatial analyses, document studies, interviews and stakeholder workshops. We demonstrate the potential of the approach to assessing several dimensions of vulnerability and illustrate the complexity of urban vulnerability at different scales: households (e.g., lacking assets); communities (e.g., situated in low-lying areas, lacking urban services and green areas); and entire cities (e.g., facing encroachment on green and flood-prone land). Scenario modeling suggests that vulnerability will continue to increase strongly due to the expected loss of agricultural land at the urban fringes and loss of green space within the city. However, weak institutional commitment and capacity limit the potential for strategic coordination and action. To better adapt to urban flooding and thereby reduce vulnerability and build resilience, we suggest working across dimensions and scales, integrating climate change issues in city-level plans and strategies and enabling local actions to initiate a ‘learning-by-doing’ process of adaptation.     

Chondritic Mg isotope composition of the Earth

The processes of planetary accretion and differentiation have potentially been recorded as variations in the stable isotope ratios of the major elements between planetary objects. However, the magnitude of observed isotopic variations for several elements (Mg, Fe, Si) is at the limit of what current analytical precision and accuracy are able to resolve. Here, we present a comprehensive data set of Mg isotope ratios measured in ocean island and mid-ocean ridge basalts, peridotites and chondrites. The precision and accuracy were verified by isotopic standard addition for two samples, one carbonaceous chondrite (Murchison) and one continental flood basalt (BCR-1). In contrast with some previous studies, our data from terrestrial and chondritic materials have invariant Mg isotope ratios within the uncertainty of the method (0.1‰ for the ²⁶Mg/²⁴Mg ratio, 2SD). Although isotopic variations of less than about 0.1‰ could still be present, the data demonstrate that, at this level of uncertainty, the bulk silicate Earth and chondritic Mg reservoir have a homogeneous δ²⁶Mg = −0.23‰ (²⁶Mg/²⁴Mg ratio of the sample relative to the DSM3 standard set to zero by definition). This implies that neither planetary accretion processes nor partial mantle melting and subsequent shallow-level differentiation have fractionated Mg isotope ratios. These observations imply in particular that the formation of the Earth cannot stem from preferential sorting of chondrite constituents that would have been fractionated in their Mg isotope composition. It also implies that unlike oxygen isotopes, there was no zonation in Mg isotopes in the inner solar system.     

Description of an aerodynamic levitation apparatus with applications in Earth sciences

Background  

In aerodynamic levitation, solids and liquids are floated in a vertical gas stream. In combination with CO₂-laser heating, containerless melting at high temperature of oxides and silicates is possible. We apply aerodynamic levitation to bulk rocks in preparation for microchemical analyses, and for evaporation and reduction experiments.     

Effect of hydrocarbon-contaminated fluctuating groundwater on magnetic properties of shallow sediments

We investigate magnetic phase (trans)formation in the presence of petroleum hydrocarbons and its relation to bacterial activity, in particular in the zone of remediation driven fluctuating water levels at a former military air base in the Czech Republic. In a previous study an increase of magnetite concentration from the groundwater table towards the top of the groundwater fluctuation zone (GWFZ) was reported, however with limited reliability as there was no control on small-scale effects. To recognize statistically significant magnetic signatures versus depth, we obtained multiple sediment cores from three locations in January 2011 and April 2012, penetrating the unsaturated zone, the GWFZ and the uppermost one meter below the groundwater level (～2.3 m depth at the time of sampling). Magnetic concentration variation versus depth was determined by measuring magnetic susceptibility (MS) and remanence parameters. Small-scale features were identified and eliminated by statistical processing of multiple cores. A trend of increasing MS values from the lowermost position of the groundwater table upward was verified and highest magnetic concentration was found at the top of the GWFZ. Magnetic mineralogy indicates that newly formed fine-grained magnetite in the single domain to small pseudo-single domain range is responsible for the MS enhancement confirming previous results. There is no correlation with the depth variation of hydrocarbon (HC) concentrations; however, total organic carbon is linked to MS and may represent a degradation product of HC that is bioavailable for microorganisms. Bacterial activity is likely responsible for magnetite formation as indicated by most probable number (MPN) results of iron-metabolizing bacteria. The comparison of our results with an earlier study conducted at the same site revealed that magnetic concentration clearly decreased since remediation was terminated in 2008, possibly due to dissolution of magnetite.     

Dimensional analysis of the earthquake-induced pounding between inelastic structures

In this paper the seismic response of inelastic structures with unilateral contact is revisited with dimensional analysis. All physically realizable contact types are captured via a non-smooth complementarity approach. The implementation of formal dimensional analysis leads to a condensed presentation of the response and unveils remarkable order even though two different types of non-linearity coexist in the response: the boundary non-linearity of unilateral contact and the inelastic behaviour of the structure itself. It is shown that regardless the intensity and frequency content of the excitation, all response spectra become self-similar when expressed in the appropriate dimensionless terms. The proposed approach hinges upon the notion of the energetic length scale of an excitation which measures the persistence of ground shaking to impose deformation demands. Using the concept of persistency which is defined for excitations with or without distinct pulses, the response is scaled via meaningful novel intensity measures: the dimensionless gap and the dimensionless yield displacement. The study confirms that contact may have a different effect on the response displacements of inelastic structures depending on the spectral region. In adjacent inelastic structures, such as colliding buildings or interacting bridge segments, contact is likely to alter drastically the excitation frequencies’ at which the system is most vulnerable. Finally, it is shown that the proposed approach yields maximum response displacements which correlate very well with the persistency of real earthquakes for a bridge system with considerably complex behaviour.     

Trends,drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10–15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems.     

A Concise History of Dutch River Floods

Based on a brief account of 1,000 years of river floods and flood management in the Dutch Rhine delta, it is argued that vulnerability to river floods depends on the complex interaction of economics, institutions, politics and, to a limited extent, climate. Response functions and thresholds for climate change impacts should take this complexity into account rather than assuming society to be constant or evolving in a straightforward manner.     

On the influence of the physico-chemical properties of aerosols on the life cycle of radiation fogs

A one-dimensional model of radiation fog with detailed microphysics is presented. Aerosols and cloud droplets are treated in a joint two-dimensional size distribution. Radiative fluxes are calculated as functions of the radiative properties of the time-dependent particle spectra. The droplet growth equation is solved by considering radiative effects. Turbulence is treated by means of a higher order closure model. The interaction between the atmosphere and the earth's surface is explicitly simulated.Three numerical sensitivity studies are performed to investigate the impact of the different physico-chemical properties of urban, rural and maritime aerosols on fog formation. Numerical results elucidate that depending on the aerosol type used, the resulting fog events are completely different. This is particularly true for the times of fog formation and dissipation as well as for the liquid water content and supersaturations within the fogs. In the activated part of the particle spectra, the aerosol mass is very inhomogeneously distributed. The maxima of the curves do not coincide with the maxima of the corresponding liquid water distributions.