On the Impact of Anthropogenic Heat Fluxes on the Urban Boundary Layer: A Two-Dimensional Numerical Study

The heat generated in buildings and the manner in which this heat is exchanged with the ambient environment can play an important role in urban climate. Recent studies have shown that anthropogenic heat from air-conditioning facilities can increase the exterior ambient temperature and should be taken into account for a more complete urban heat island (UHI) mitigation study. For this purpose, the first part of the present work is focused on the coupling of a new building energy model (BEM) and an urban canopy parameterisation (UCP). The new scheme is implemented in a finite volume mesoscale model (MM) and tested in a two-dimensional (2D) configuration of a city over flat terrain. A sensitivity study is performed with respect to different parameters in order to test the simulation system and enhance the understanding of the possible impacts of the BEM on the exterior microclimate.     

On the 60-month cycle of multivariate ENSO index

Many point indices have been developed to describe El Niño/Southern Oscillation, but the multivariate El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) index (MEI) is considered the most representative since it links six different meteorological parameters measured over the tropical Pacific. Spectral analysis with appropriate data reduction techniques of monthly values of MEI (1950–2008) has allowed the identification of a large 60-month cycle, statistically confident at a level larger than 99%. The highest values of MEI (typical of El Niño events) and the lowest values of MEI (typical of La Niña events) are concordant with respective maxima and minima values of the identified 60-month cycle.     

Observing upper troposphere–lower stratosphere climate with radio occultation data from the CHAMP satellite

High quality observations of the atmosphere are particularly required for monitoring global climate change. Radio occultation (RO) data, using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) signals, are well suited for this challenge. The special climate utility of RO data arises from their long-term stability due to their self-calibrated nature. The German research satellite CHAllenging Minisatellite Payload for geoscientific research (CHAMP) continuously records RO profiles since August 2001 providing the first opportunity to create RO based climatologies for a multi-year period of more than 5 years. A period of missing CHAMP data from July 3, 2006 to August 8, 2006 can be bridged with RO data from the GRACE satellite (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment). We have built seasonal and zonal mean climatologies of atmospheric (dry) temperature, microwave refractivity, geopotential height and pressure with 10° latitudinal resolution. We show representative results with focus on dry temperatures and compare them with analysis data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). Although we have available only about 150 CHAMP profiles per day (compared to millions of data entering the ECMWF analyses) the overall agreement between 8 and 30 km altitude is in general very good with systematic differences <0.5 K in most parts of the domain. Pronounced systematic differences (exceeding 2 K) in the tropical tropopause region and above Antarctica in southern winter can almost entirely be attributed to errors in the ECMWF analyses. Errors resulting from uneven sampling in space and time are a potential error source for single-satellite climatologies. The average CHAMP sampling error for seasonal zonal means is <0.2 K, higher values occur in restricted regions and time intervals which can be clearly identified by the sampling error estimation approach we introduced (which is based on ECMWF analysis fields). The total error of this new type of temperature climatologies is estimated to be <0.5 K below 30 km. The recently launched Taiwan/U.S. FORMOSAT-3/COSMIC constellation of 6 RO satellites started to provide thousands of RO profiles per day, but already now the single-satellite CHAMP RO climatologies improve upon modern operational climatologies in the upper troposphere–lower stratosphere and can act as absolute reference climatologies for validation of more bias-sensitive climate datasets and models.     

Addressing Integration Challenges of Interdisciplinary Research in Social-Ecological Systems

Abstract

Conducting research on coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) presents inherent challenges, such as coordination across disparate disciplines or integrating across multiple scales and levels of governance. To overcome these common challenges, we propose that structuring the research design itself according to SES principles provides for integrative execution of SES science. First, starting with pilot work, human and natural science researchers should work as a team to identify and access multi-level entry points (i.e. points of direct engagement) within the system, relative to the spatiotemporal scales under investigation. Second, teams should implement an adaptive process that begins with the proposed research design and uses shared experiences from pilot work to refine protocols prior to subsequent data collection. We provide examples of multi-level and multi-scale entry points, and show that adaptive management of research design through coordinated iteration allows for better research integration and applicable outcomes.     

The Manso Glacier drainage system in the northern Patagonian Andes: an overview of its main hydrological characteristics

The Manso Glacier (~41°S, 72°W), in the northern Patagonian Andes of Argentina, is a regenerated glacier that, like many other glaciers in the region and elsewhere, has been showing a significant retreat. Glacial melt water feeds the Manso Superior River, which, before crossing the Andes to reach a Pacific outfall, flows through the Mascardi (a deep, oligotrophic and monomictic lake) and significantly smaller Hess and Steffen lakes. Harmonic analysis of Mascardi's lake level series suggests that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation signal has been strong during the 1985–1995 decade but has grown weaker during the initial decade of the 21st century. Hydrological trend analyses applied in data recorded in the uppermost reaches show a monthly and annual decreasing trend in the Manso Superior River discharge series and Mascardi's lake level, which are connected with both, decreasing melt water discharge and (austral) wintertime atmospheric precipitation. Downstream, the decreasing signal initially looses statistical significance and then, when flowing through Steffen Lake, reverses the lake level trend that becomes significantly positive. This suggests that, on its way to the Pacific Ocean, the Manso River receives abundant Andean snow melt water and atmospheric precipitation, which are sufficient to obliterate the negative trend recorded in the uppermost reaches. The reason for this local phenomenon is that the Manso is an antecedent river (aka superposed stream), and hence, the valley crossing the Andes allows the incursion of Pacific humidity that modifies the hydrological regime several hundred kilometres inland. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A single numerically efficient equation for approximating the Mohr–Coulomb and the Matsuoka–Nakai failure criteria with rounded edges and apex

This paper presents a novel formulation for defining soil failure. It plots in the principal stress space as a surface with the shape ranging between an approximation of the Matsuoka–Nakai and of the Mohr–Coulomb criteria depending on the value of a single parameter. The new function can be used as a replacement of the original equations of these well‐established criteria for implementing in a program for numerical analyses, and it is particularly effective for approximating the Matsuoka–Nakai criterion. Both the Mohr–Coulomb and the Matsuoka–Nakai failure criteria present numerical difficulties during implementation and also at run‐time. In the case of the Matsuoka–Nakai, the new formulation plots in the first octant only, whereas the original criterion plots in all octants, which causes severe convergence problems particularly for those Gauss points with low stress state, such as those on the side of a shallow footing. When the shape parameter is set to reproduce the Mohr–Coulomb failure criterion, on the other hand, the new formulation plots as a pyramid with rounded edges. Moreover, as the new function is at least of class C², the second derivatives are continuous, thus ensuring quadratic convergence of the Newton's method used within the integration scheme of the constitutive law. The proposed formulation can also provide both sharp and rounded apex of the surface at the origin of the stress space by setting accordingly one additional parameter. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Identifying run‐off contributions during melt‐induced run‐off events in a glacierized alpine catchment

We analysed contributions to run‐off using hourly stream water samples from seven individual melt‐induced run‐off events (plus one rainfall event) during 2011, 2012 and 2013 in two nested glacierized catchments in the Eastern Italian Alps. Electrical conductivity and stable isotopes of water were used for mixing analysis and two‐component and three‐component hydrograph separation. High‐elevation snowmelt, glacier melt and autumn groundwater were identified as major end‐members. Discharge and tracers in the stream followed the diurnal variations of air temperature but markedly reacted to rainfall inputs. Hysteresis patterns between discharge and electrical conductivity during the melt‐induced run‐off events revealed contrasting loop directions at the two monitored stream sections. Snowmelt contribution to run‐off was highest in June and July (up to 33%), whereas the maximum contribution of glacier melt was reached in August (up to 65%). The maximum groundwater and rainfall contributions were 62% and 11%, respectively. Run‐off events were generally characterized by decreasing snowmelt and increasing glacier melt fractions from the beginning to the end of the summer 2012, while run‐off events in 2013 showed less variable snowmelt and lower glacier melt contributions than in 2012. The results provided essential insights into the complex dynamics of melt‐induced run‐off events and may be of further use in the context of water resource management in alpine catchments. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of climate and density-dependent factors on population dynamics of the pine processionary moth in the Southern Alps

Forest pest populations can fluctuate dramatically in relation to climate and density-dependent factors. Although the distributional range of the pine processionary moth Thaumetopoea pityocampa (Lepidoptera Notodontidae) appears to be expanding northward and upslope with climate warming, the relative importance of climate and endogenous, density-dependent factors has not been clearly documented. We analyzed the population dynamics of the moth using long-term data from two provinces in the Southern Alps (Trento: 1990–2009, Bolzano/Bozen: 1975–2011) to evaluate the relative importance of climate and density-dependent factors as regional drivers. Both summer temperatures and rainfall significantly affected population growth rate, with different outcomes depending on the local conditions. Although previous studies indicated that low winter temperatures have negative effects on insect performance, our analyses did not show any negative effect on the population dynamics. A negative density dependent feedback with a 1-year lag emerged as the most important factor driving the population dynamics in both regions. Potential mechanisms explaining the observed negative density feedback include deterioration of host quality, increased mortality caused by pathogens, and increase of prolonged diapause as an adaptive mechanism to escape adverse conditions.     

Use of sedimentary pigments to infer past phosphorus concentration in lakes

We propose a palaeolimnological method for inferring past total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in lake water from spectrophotometrically-measured sedimentary pigments, particularly total carotenoids (TC). Our approach is based on a highly significant statistical correlation (P < 0.0001) between pigment concentrations (total carotenoids) in the surface sediment of 28 Italian lakes (subalpine, large, deep, shallow, volcanic) and TP concentrations measured in these lakes at overturn when the core was collected. A transfer function was developed from this “training” set, and used to estimate past TP concentrations from pigment concentrations in sediment cores. The results generally agreed with TP values as measured by long-term water quality monitoring programs. Contrasting results were obtained by a comparison with diatom-inferred TP. While the diatom model showed a tendency to overestimate TP values higher than 100 μg l⁻¹, the pigment model correctly estimated TP in lakes when TP was <100 μg l⁻¹, but not when lakes were rich in macrophytes. In fact, lakes with extensive populations of aquatic submersed macrophytes and epiphytes are outliers in terms of the TC versus TP relationship. The root mean square error of prediction of the pigment model is lower than those derived from certain diatom—based inference models. The predicted and residual values are not related to the estimated values and their average is not statistically different from zero. Errors were estimated via a ‘leave-one-out’ re-sampling technique. The proposed method permits rapid and relatively inexpensive determination of reference trophic conditions.