Reporting negative results to stimulate experimental hydrology: discussion of “The role of experimental work in hydrological sciences – insights from a community survey”*

ABSTRACT

Experimental work in hydrology is in decline. Based on a community survey, Blume et al. showed that the hydrological community associates experimental work with greater risks. One of the main issues with experimental work is the higher chance of negative results (defined here as when the expected or wanted result was not observed despite careful experimental design, planning and execution), resulting in a longer and more difficult publishing process. Reporting on negative results would avoid putting time and resources into repeating experiments that lead to negative results, and give experimental hydrologists the scientific recognition they deserve. With this commentary, we propose four potential solutions to encourage reporting on negative results, which might contribute to a stimulation of experimental hydrology.     

Motif Discovery on Seismic Amplitude Time Series: The Case Study of Mt Etna 2011 Eruptive Activity

Algorithms searching for similar patterns are widely used in seismology both when the waveforms of the events of interest are known and when there is no a priori-knowledge. Such methods usually make use of the cross-correlation coefficient as a measure of similarity; if there is no a-priori knowledge, they behave as brute-force searching algorithms. The disadvantage of these methods, preventing or limiting their application to very large datasets, is computational complexity. The Mueen–Keogh (MK) algorithm overcomes this limitation by means of two optimization techniques—the early abandoning concept and space indexing. Here, we apply the MK algorithm to amplitude time series retrieved from seismic signals recorded during episodic eruptive activity of Mt Etna in 2011. By adequately tuning the input to the MK algorithm we found eight motif groups characterized by distinct seismic amplitude trends, each related to a different phenomenon. In particular, we observed that earthquakes are accompanied by sharp increases and decreases in seismic amplitude whereas lava fountains are accompanied by slower changes. These results demonstrate that the MK algorithm, because of its particular features, may have wide applicability in seismology.     

Simultaneous identification of the pollutant release history and the source location in groundwater by means of a geostatistical approach

This paper describes an innovative procedure that is able to simultaneously identify the release history and the source location of a pollutant injection in a groundwater aquifer (simultaneous release function and source location identification, SRSI). The methodology follows a geostatistical approach: it develops starting from a data set and a reliable numerical flow and transport model of the aquifer. Observations can be concentration data detected at a given time in multiple locations or a time series of concentration measurements collected at multiple locations. The methodology requires a preliminary delineation of a probably source area and results in the identification of both the sub-area where the pollutant injection has most likely originated, and in the contaminant release history. Some weak hypotheses have to be defined about the statistical structure of the unknown release function such as the probability density function and correlation structure. Three case studies are discussed concerning two-dimensional, confined aquifers with strongly non-uniform flow fields. A transfer function approach has been adopted for the numerical definition of the sensitivity matrix and the recent step input function procedure has been successfully applied.     

Hysteretic cyclic response of concrete columns reinforced with smooth bars

The application of smooth (plain) bars in reinforced concrete (RC) construction has been abandoned since the 1970s; however, there are many old reinforced concrete buildings in the world whose construction is based on this old style that are now in need of structural seismic rehabilitation according to the requirements of present day seismic rehabilitation codes. The focus of this study concerns the investigation of the hysteretic cyclic response of RC columns with smooth bars. The results of six column specimens having a variety of details for overlapping splices of longitudinal bars while experiencing two different levels of axial loads under cyclic loading reversals are presented. Through analysis of test observations and the obtained experimental results, it is attempted to clarify major aspects of hysteretic response for RC columns with smooth bars, from a seismic assessment point of view. The hysteretic force–drift responses of columns are deeply investigated and a new concept explaining the flag shape form of the hysteretic response is presented. Furthermore, the rocking response of columns is predicted with a new formulation that assumes an internal compression strut inside the column body as a consequence of rocking that originated from high base rotations. Finally, a simple hysteresis rule is proposed which is the result of considering the combination of two springs in parallel to provide the total hysteretic response as the summation of rocking hysteretic and bottom anchor (smooth bar) hysteretic responses.     

Generation of 3D Spatially Variable Anisotropy for Groundwater Flow Simulations

Sedimentary units generally present anisotropy in their hydraulic properties, with higher hydraulic conductivity along bedding planes, rather than perpendicular to them. This common property leads to a modeling challenge if the sedimentary structure is folded. In this paper, we show that the gradient of the geological potential used by implicit geological modeling techniques can be used to compute full hydraulic conductivity tensors varying in space according to the geological orientation. For that purpose, the gradient of the potential, a vector normal to the bedding, is used to construct a rotation matrix that allows the estimation of the 3D hydraulic conductivity tensor in a single matrix operation. A synthetic 2D cross section example is used to illustrate the method and show that flow simulations performed in such a folded environment are highly influenced by this rotating anisotropy. When using the proposed method, the streamlines follow very closely the folded formation. This is not the case with an isotropic model.     

Seismic interferometry experiment in a shallow cased borehole using a seismic vibrator source‡

We present the results of a seismic interferometry experiment in a shallow cased borehole. The experiment is an initial study for subsequent borehole seismic surveys in an instrumented well site, where we plan to test other surface/borehole seismic techniques. The purpose of this application is to improve the knowledge of the reflectivity sequence and to verify the potential of the seismic interferometry approach to retrieve high‐frequency signals in the single well geometry, overcoming the loss and attenuation effects introduced by the overburden. We used a walkaway vertical seismic profile (VSP) geometry with a seismic vibrator to generate polarized vertical and horizontal components along a surface seismic line and an array of 3C geophones cemented outside the casing. The recorded traces are processed to obtain virtual sources in the borehole and to simulate single‐well gathers with a variable source‐receiver offset in the vertical array. We compare the results obtained by processing the field data with synthetic signals calculated by numerical simulation and analyse the signal bandwidth and amplitude versus offset to evaluate near‐field effects in the virtual signals. The application provides direct and reflected signals with improved bandwidth after vibrator signal deconvolution. Clear reflections are detected in the virtual seismic sections in agreement with the geology and other surface and borehole seismic data recorded with conventional seismic exploration techniques.     

Fault Roughness at Seismogenic Depths from LIDAR and Photogrammetric Analysis

Fault surface roughness is a principal factor influencing earthquake mechanics, and particularly rupture initiation, propagation, and arrest. However, little data currently exist on fault surfaces at seismogenic depths. Here, we investigate the roughness of slip surfaces from the seismogenic strike-slip Gole Larghe Fault Zone, exhumed from ca. 10 km depth. The fault zone exploited pre-existing joints and is hosted in granitoid rocks of the Adamello batholith (Italian Alps). Individual seismogenic slip surfaces generally show a first phase of cataclasite production, and a second phase with beautifully preserved pseudotachylytes of variable thickness. We determined the geometry of fault traces over almost five orders of magnitude using terrestrial laser-scanning (LIDAR, ca. 500 to <1 m scale), and 3D mosaics of high-resolution rectified digital photographs (10 m to ca. 1 mm scale). LIDAR scans and photomosaics were georeferenced in 3D using a Differential Global Positioning System, allowing detailed multiscale reconstruction of fault traces in Gocad^®. The combination of LIDAR and high-resolution photos has the advantage, compared with classical LIDAR-only surveys, that the spatial resolution of rectified photographs can be very high (up to 0.2 mm/pixel in this study), allowing for detailed outcrop characterization. Fourier power spectrum analysis of the fault traces revealed a self-affine behaviour over 3–5 orders of magnitude, with Hurst exponents ranging between 0.6 and 0.8. Parameters from Fourier analysis have been used to reconstruct synthetic 3D fault surfaces with an equivalent roughness by means of 2D Fourier synthesis. Roughness of pre-existing joints is in a typical range for this kind of structure. Roughness of faults at small scale (1 m to 1 mm) shows a clear genetic relationship with the roughness of precursor joints, and some anisotropy in the self-affine Hurst exponent. Roughness of faults at scales larger than net slip (>1–10 m) is not anisotropic and less evolved than at smaller scales. These observations are consistent with an evolution of roughness, due to fault surface processes, that takes place only at scales smaller or comparable to the observed net slip. Differences in roughness evolution between shallow and deeper faults, the latter showing evidences of seismic activity, are interpreted as the result of different weakening versus induration processes, which also result in localization versus delocalization of deformation in the fault zone. From a methodological point of view, the technique used here is advantageous over direct measurements of exposed fault surfaces in that it preserves, in cross-section, all of the structures which contribute to fault roughness, and removes any subjectivity introduced by the need to distinguish roughness of original slip surfaces from roughness induced by secondary weathering processes. Moreover, offsets can be measured by means of suitable markers and fault rocks are preserved, hence their thickness, composition and structural features can be characterised, providing an integrated dataset which sheds new light on mechanisms of roughness evolution with slip and concomitant fault rock production.     

Principal Slip Zones in Limestone: Microstructural Characterization and Implications for the Seismic Cycle (Tre Monti Fault, Central Apennines, Italy)

Earthquakes in central Italy, and in other areas worldwide, often nucleate within and rupture through carbonates in the upper crust. During individual earthquake ruptures, most fault displacement is thought to be accommodated by thin principal slip zones. This study presents detailed microstructural observations of the slip zones of the seismically active Tre Monti normal fault zone. All of the slip zones cut limestone, and geological constraints indicate exhumation from <2?km depth, where ambient temperatures are ?100°C. Scanning electron microscope observations suggest that the slip zones are composed of 100% calcite. The slip zones of secondary faults in the damage zone contain protocataclastic and cataclastic fabrics that are cross-cut by systematic fracture networks and stylolite dissolution surfaces. The slip zone of the principal fault has much more microstructural complexity, and contains a 2?C10?mm thick ultracataclasite that lies immediately beneath the principal slip surface. The ultracataclasite itself is internally zoned; 200?C300???m-thick ultracataclastic sub-layers record extreme localization of slip. Syn-tectonic calcite vein networks spatially associated with the sub-layers suggest fluid involvement in faulting. The ultracataclastic sub-layers preserve compelling microstructural evidence of fluidization, and also contain peculiar rounded grains consisting of a central (often angular) clast wrapped by a laminated outer cortex of ultra-fine-grained calcite. These ??clast-cortex grains?? closely resemble those produced during layer fluidization in other settings, including the basal detachments of catastrophic landslides and saturated high-velocity friction experiments on clay-bearing gouges. An overprinting foliation is present in the slip zone of the principal fault, and electron backscatter diffraction analyses indicate the presence of a weak calcite crystallographic preferred orientation (CPO) in the fine-grained matrix. The calcite c-axes are systematically inclined in the direction of shear. We suggest that fluidization of ultracataclastic sub-layers and formation of clast-cortex grains within the principal slip zone occurred at high strain rates during propagation of seismic ruptures whereas development of an overprinting CPO occurred by intergranular pressure solution during post-seismic creep. Further work is required to document the range of microstructures in localized slip zones that cross-cut different lithologies, and to compare natural slip zone microstructures with those produced in controlled deformation experiments.