Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Simplified seismic sidesway collapse analysis of frame buildings

This paper presents the development and assessment of a simplified procedure for estimating the seismic sidesway collapse margin ratio of building structures. The proposed procedure is based on the development of a robust database of seismic peak displacement responses of nonlinear single‐degree‐of‐freedom systems for various seismic intensities and uses nonlinear static (pushover) analysis without the need for nonlinear time history dynamic analysis. The proposed simplified procedure is assessed by comparing its collapse capacity predictions on 72 different building structures with those obtained by nonlinear incremental dynamic analyses. The proposed simplified procedure offers a simple, yet efficient, computational/analytical tool that is capable of predicting collapse capacities with acceptable accuracy for a wide variety of frame building structures. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determining the drivers of long‐term aridity variability: a southern African case study

This paper highlights the importance of differentiating between precipitation amount and moisture availability (‘humidity’/‘aridity’) when considering proxy records of climate change. While the terms are sometimes used interchangeably, moisture availability is determined by both (i) precipitation amount and (ii) temperature, through its influence on potential evapotranspiration. As many palaeoenvironmental proxies reflect changes in this water balance rather than purely precipitation amount, it is important to distinguish between the potential relative influences of precipitation and temperature if those records are to be interpreted in terms of climate mechanisms and/or compared with model outputs. As a case study, we explore how precipitation and temperature have determined moisture availability in South Africa's summer rainfall zone over the last 45 000 years. Using quantitative reconstructions of mean annual temperature, summer rainfall amount and an aridity index, our analysis reveals strong spatiotemporal variability in the relative influences of precipitation and temperature on aridity. Temperature is shown to have exerted a considerable and even dominant influence on moisture availability, resulting in elevated humidity during the last glacial period, despite significant reductions in precipitation amount.     

Multidimensional Similarity Measuring for Semantic Trajectories

Most existing approaches aiming at measuring trajectory similarity are focused on two‐dimensional sequences of points, called raw trajectories. However, recent proposals have used background geographic information and social media data to enrich these trajectories with a semantic dimension, giving rise to the concept of semantic trajectories. Only a few works have proposed similarity measures for semantic trajectories or multidimensional sequences, having limitations such as predefined weight of the dimensions, sensitivity to noise, tolerance for gaps with different sizes, and the prevalence of the worst dimension similarity. In this article we propose MSM, a novel similarity measure for multidimensional sequences that overcomes the aforementioned limitations by considering and weighting the similarity in all dimensions. MSM is evaluated through an extensive experimental study that, based on a seed trajectory, creates sets of semantic trajectories with controlled transformations to introduce different kinds and levels of dissimilarity. For each set, we compute the similarity between the seed and the transformed trajectories, using different measures. The results showed that MSM was more robust and efficient than related approaches in the domain of semantic trajectories.     

Quantification of both normal and right‐lateral late Quaternary activity along the Kongur Shan extensional system,Chinese Pamir

The Kongur Shan Extensional System (KES) is a ~250 km long normal fault system that bounds the Muji–Tashkorgan basin of the Chinese Pamir. It accommodates E–W extension due to the northward indentation of the Pamir salient, and its late Miocene activity has been the focus of tectonic studies. While the KES has a main normal component, ~WNW–ESE‐striking segments have an additional right‐lateral strike‐slip component. Here, we quantify late Quaternary horizontal and vertical slip rates at three locations along the KES, where active faults cut and offset abandoned geomorphic features. We find rates of >3–4 mm a^?1 (horizontal) along the western Muji fault in the north and of ~1.7 mm a^?1 (vertical) and ~1 mm a^?1 (horizontal) along the Kongur Shan fault in the south during the late Pleistocene. These rates are consistent with GPS and late Miocene rates, and imply that E–W extension in the Muji–Tashkorgan basin is faster in the north than in the south.     

Least-cost adaptation options for global climate change impacts on the Brazilian electric power system

Global climate change induced by the emission of greenhouse gases may pose challenges to energy security. The vulnerability of energy sources, in particular of renewable sources, to climate change raises the need to identify adaptation measures. This paper applies an integrated resource planning approach to calculate least-cost adaptation measures to a set of projected climate impacts on the Brazilian power sector. The methodology used has the advantage of finding optimal solutions that take into consideration the whole energy chain and the interactions between energy supply and demand. Results point in the direction of an increased installed capacity based, mostly, on natural gas, but also sugarcane bagasse, wind power and coal/nuclear plants, to compensate for a lower reliability of hydroelectric production, amongst other impacts. The indirect effect of these results is the displacement of natural gas from other consuming sectors, such as industry, in favor of its use for power generation. Results obtained are, however, based on the techno-economic premises used in the simulation, which may vary in the long term.     

Potential for deep geological sequestration of CO2 in Switzerland: a first appraisal

Possibilities to sequester anthropogenic CO₂ in deep geological formations are being investigated worldwide, but the potential within Switzerland has not yet been evaluated. This study presents a first-order appraisal based solely on geological criteria collated from the literature. The Swiss Molasse Basin (SMB) and the adjacent Folded Jura are the only realms of the country where CO₂ could conceivably be stored in saline aquifers. Evaluation of geological criteria at the basin-wide scale shows that the SMB–Jura has moderate potential (score of 0.6 on a scale from 0 to 1) when compared to basins elsewhere. At the intrabasinal scale, inspection of the stratigraphy reveals four regional candidate aquifers that are sealed by suitable caprocks: top Basement plus basal Mesozoic sandstones, all sealed by the Anhydrite Group; Upper Muschelkalk sealed by the Gipskeuper; Hauptrogenstein sealed by the Effinger Member, and Upper Malm plus Lower Cretaceous sealed by the Lower Freshwater Molasse. Nine geological criteria are defined to evaluate the storage potential of these and other smaller scale candidates. A numerical scoring and weighting scheme allows the criteria to be assessed simultaneously, permitting the storage potential to be depicted using the 0–1 scale in contoured maps. Approximately 5,000 km² of the central SMB exhibits potentials between 0.6 and 0.96. The Fribourg–Olten–Luzern area is the most favoured owing to the presence of several sealed aquifers within the preferred 800–2,500 m depth interval, and to its low seismicity, low geothermal gradient, low fault density, and long groundwater residence times. Smaller areas with good potential lie between Zürich and St. Gallen. In contrast, western Switzerland, the Jura and the southern SMB have markedly poorer potential. Considering only the portions of the aquifers with potential above 0.6, the theoretical, effective storage capacity of the basin is estimated to be 2,680 million tonnes of CO₂.