Are Natural Climate Forcings Able to Counteract the Projected Anthropogenic Global Warming?

A two-dimensional global climate model is used to assessthe climatic changes associated with the new IPCC SRES emissions scenarios and to determine which kind of changes in total solar irradiance and volcanic perturbations could mask the projected anthropogenic global warming associated to the SRES scenarios. Our results suggest that only extremely unlikely changes in total solar irradiance and/or volcanic eruptions would be able to overcome the simulated anthropogenic global warming over the century. Nevertheless, in the critical interval of the next two decades the externally-driven natural climate variability might possibly confuse the debate about temperature trends and impede detection of the anthropogenic climate change signal.     

Tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series in the Southeastern Betic Cordillera,Spain

In this work we analyze the tectonic setting of the recent damaging seismic series occurred in the Internal Zones of the eastern Betic Cordillera (SE Spain) and surrounding areas, the tectonic region where took place the 11th May 2011 Mw 5.2 Lorca earthquake. We revisit and make a synthesis of the seven largest and damaging seismic series occurred from 1984 to 2011. We analyze their seismotectonic setting, and their geological sources under the light of recent advances in the knowledge on active faults, neotectonics, seismotectonics and stress regime, with special attention focused on the Lorca Earthquake. These seismic series are characterized by two types of focal mechanisms, produced mainly by two sets of active faults, NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW small (no larger than 20–30 km) extensional faults with some strike slip component, and E–W to NE–SW large strike slip faults (more than 50 km long) with some compressional component (oblique slip faults). The normal fault earthquakes related to the smaller faults are dominant in the interior of large crustal tectonic blocks that are bounded by the large E–W to NE–SW strike-slip faults. The strike slip earthquakes are associated to the reactivation of segments or intersegment regions of the large E–W to NE–SW faults bounding those crustal tectonic blocks. Most of the seismic series studied in this work can be interpreted as part of the background seismicity that occurs within the crustal blocks that are strained under a transpressional regime driven by the major strike slip shear corridors bounding the blocks. The seismotectonic analysis and the phenomenology of the studied series indicate that it is usual the occurrence of damaging compound earthquakes of M  \(\sim \)  5.0 associated with triggering processes driven by coseismic stress transfer. These processes mainly occur in the seismic series generated by NNW–SSE to NNE–SSW faults. These mechanical interaction processes may induce a higher frequency of occurrence of this kind of earthquakes than considered in traditional probabilistic seismic hazard assessments and it should be taken into account in future seismic hazard assessments.     

Crustacean decapod assemblages associated with fragmented Posidonia oceanica meadows in the Alboran Sea (Western Mediterranean Sea): composition,temporal dynamics and influence of meadow structure

The decapod assemblage associated with a Posidonia oceanica meadow located near its western limit of biogeographic distribution was studied over an annual cycle. Fauna samples were taken seasonally over a year (five replicates per season) in two sites located 7 km apart, using a non‐destructive sampling method (airlift sampler) for the seagrass. The dominant species of the assemblage, Pisidia longimana, Pilumnus hirtellus and Athanas nitescens, were associated with the protective rhizome stratum, which is mainly used as a nursery. The correlations between decapod assemblage structure and some phenological parameters of the seagrass shoots and wave height were negative or null, which reflects that species associated with the rhizome had a higher importance than those associated with the leaf stratum. The abundance and composition of the decapod assemblage as well as the ecological indexes displayed a seasonality trend with maximum values in summer‐autumn and minimum in winter‐spring, which were related to the seawater temperature and the recruitment periods of the dominant species. The spatial differences found in the structure and dynamics of the assemblages may be due to variations in the recruitment of the dominant species, probably as a result of the influence of local factors (e.g. temperature, currents) and the high dispersal ability of decapods, together with the patchy configuration and the surrounding habitats. The studied meadows are fragmented and are integrated within a mosaic of habitats (Cymodocea nodosa patches, algal meadows, rocky and sandy bottoms), which promotes the movement of individuals and species among them, maintaining a high species richness and evenness.     

Distribution of aliphatic amines in CO,CV, and CK carbonaceous chondrites and relation to mineralogy and processing history

The analysis of water‐soluble organic compounds in meteorites provides valuable insights into the prebiotic synthesis of organic matter and the processes that occurred during the formation of the solar system. We investigated the concentration of aliphatic monoamines present in hot acid water extracts of the unaltered Antarctic carbonaceous chondrites, Dominion Range (DOM) 08006 (CO3) and Miller Range (MIL) 05013 (CO3), and the thermally altered meteorites, Allende (CV3), LAP 02206 (CV3), GRA 06101 (CV3), Allan Hills (ALH) 85002 (CK4), and EET 92002 (CK5). We have also reviewed and assessed the petrologic characteristics of the meteorites studied here to evaluate the effects of asteroidal processing on the abundance and molecular distributions of monoamines. The CO3, CV3, CK4, and CK5 meteorites studied here contain total concentrations of amines ranging from 1.2 to 4.0 nmol g^?1 of meteorite; these amounts are 1–3 orders of magnitude below those observed in carbonaceous chondrites from the CI, CM, and CR groups. The low‐amine abundances for CV and CK chondrites may be related to their extensive degree of thermal metamorphism and/or to their low original amine content. Although the CO3 meteorites, DOM 08006 and MIL 05013, do not show signs of thermal and aqueous alteration, their monoamine contents are comparable to those observed in moderately/extensively thermally altered CV3, CK4, and CK5 carbonaceous chondrites. The low content of monoamines in pristine CO carbonaceous chondrites suggests that the initial amounts, and not asteroidal processes, play a dominant role in the content of monoamines in carbonaceous chondrites. The primary monoamines, methylamine, ethylamine, and n‐propylamine constitute the most abundant amines in the CO3, CV3, CK4, and CK5 meteorites studied here. Contrary to the predominance of n‐ω‐amino acid isomers in CO3 and thermally altered meteorites, there appears to be no preference for the larger n‐amines.     

An expanded surface-water palaeotemperature inference model for use with fossil midges from eastern Canada

Using an expanded surface sample data set, representing lakes distributed across a transect from southernmost Canada to the Canadian High Arctic, a revised midge-palaeotemperature inference model was developed for eastern Canada. Modelling trials with weighted averaging (with classical and inverse deshrinking; with and without tolerance downweighting) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression, with and without square-root transformation of the species data, were used to identify the best model. Comparison of measured and predicted temperatures revealed that a 2 component WA-PLS model for square-root transformed percentage species data provided the model with the highest explained variance (r =0.88) and the lowest error estimate (RMSEP _jack =2.26 °C). Comparison of temperature inferences based on the new and old models indicates that the original model may have seriously under-estimated the magnitude of late-glacial temperature oscillations in Atlantic Canada. The new inferences suggest that summer surface water temperatures in Splan Pond, New Brunswick were approximately 10 to 12 °C immediately following deglaciation and during the Younger Dryas. During the Allerod and early Holocene, surface water temperatures of 20 to 24 °C were attained. The new model thus provides the basis for more accurate palaeotemperature reconstructions throughout easternmost Canada.     

Near‐infrared spectra of clinopyroxenes: Effects of calcium content and crystal structure

Abstract– Pyroxenes are among the most common minerals in the solar system and are ideally suited for remote geochemical analysis because of the sensitivity of their distinctive spectra to mineral composition. Fe²⁺ is responsible for the dominant pyroxene absorptions in the visible and near‐infrared, but substitutions of other cations such as Ca²⁺ change the crystal structure and site geometries and thus the crystal field splitting energies of the Fe cations. To define spectral systematics resulting from major pyroxene cations (Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and Fe²⁺), we focus on a suite of pyroxenes synthesized with only Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, and Fe²⁺ in the two octahedral sites, specifically examining the effect of Ca²⁺ on pyroxene absorption bands. The modified Gaussian model is used to deconvolve pyroxene spectra into component bands that can then be linked directly to crystal field absorptions. In orthopyroxenes and low‐Ca clinopyroxenes, Ca²⁺‐content has a strong and predictable effect on the positions of the absorption bands. At a threshold of Wo₃₀, the crystal field environment stagnates and the M2 bands cease to change significantly as more Ca²⁺ is added. At Wo₅₀, when most of the M2 sites are filled by Ca²⁺, band positions do not change drastically, although the presence and strengths of the 1 and 2 μm bands are affected by even trace amounts of Fe²⁺ in the M2 site. It is thus apparent that next‐nearest neighbors and the distortions they impose on the pyroxene lattice affect the electronic states around the Fe²⁺ cations and control absorption band properties.     

Species richness,diversity and density of understory vegetation along disturbance gradients in the Himalayan conifer forest

We investigated whether species richness, diversity and density of understory herbaceous plants differed along logging(gap) and grazing(primarily by cattle) disturbance gradients, and sought to identify drivers of richness, diversity and density of understory vegetation of logged sites. A factorial experiment was conducted in the mixed conifer forest of Gidakom in Western Bhutan. Levels of the logging treatment included small(0.15 – 0.24 ha), medium(0.25 – 0.35 ha) and large(0.36 – 1.31 ha) gaps. The grazing treatment included grazed(primarily by cattle) and ungrazed(where herbivores were excluded by a fence) plots nested within each gap. Data were collected from 12 gaps(4 replicates at each level of logging) using the point intercept method. Shannon Weaver Diversity and Margalef's indices were used to estimate species diversity and describe species richness, respectively. Soil samples were analyzed for pH and nutrients. The interaction effect of logging and grazing was significant(p≤0.001) only on species diversity. Relative to ungrazed areas, species diversity was significantly higher(0.01≤p≤0.05) in medium grazed gaps. Under grazed conditions, soil P was negatively correlated with gap size and species diversity. While species diversity was positivelycorrelated(0.01≤p≤0.05) with soil N in grazed plots species richness was positively correlated(0.001≤p≤0.01) with soil N in ungrazed plots. Relative density of Yushania microphylla and Carex nubigena were higher under ungrazed conditions. Our study suggests that the combined effect of cattle grazing and logging results in higher species diversity of understory vegetation in medium and grazed gaps in mixed conifer forests of Bhutan,whereas increase or decrease in relative density of major species is determined primarily by the independent effects of grazing and logging. From management perspective, forest managers must refrain from creating large gaps to avoid loss of nutrients(mainly P and N), which may eventually affect tree regeneration. Managers intending to maintain understory vegetation diversity must consider the combined effects of grazing and logging, ensuring low to moderate grazing pressure.     

Regional climate model projections for the State of Washington

Global climate models do not have sufficient spatial resolution to represent the atmospheric and land surface processes that determine the unique regional climate of the State of Washington. Regional climate models explicitly simulate the interactions between the large-scale weather patterns simulated by a global model and the local terrain. We have performed two 100-year regional climate simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). One simulation is forced by the NCAR Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) and the second is forced by a simulation of the Max Plank Institute, Hamburg, global model (ECHAM5). The mesoscale simulations produce regional changes in snow cover, cloudiness, and circulation patterns associated with interactions between the large-scale climate change and the regional topography and land-water contrasts. These changes substantially alter the temperature and precipitation trends over the region relative to the global model result or statistical downscaling. To illustrate this effect, we analyze the changes from the current climate (1970–1999) to the mid twenty-first century (2030–2059). Changes in seasonal-mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack are presented. Several climatological indices of extreme daily weather are also presented: precipitation intensity, fraction of precipitation occurring in extreme daily events, heat wave frequency, growing season length, and frequency of warm nights. Despite somewhat different changes in seasonal precipitation and temperature from the two regional simulations, consistent results for changes in snowpack and extreme precipitation are found in both simulations.     

Climate change and the incidence of a forest pest in Mediterranean ecosystems: can the North Atlantic Oscillation be used as a predictor?

Many forest pest species strongly depend on temperature in their population dynamics, so that rising temperatures worldwide as a consequence of climatic change are leading to increased frequencies and intensities of insect-pest outbreaks. In the Mediterranean area, the climatic conditions are strongly linked to the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The aim of this work is to analyze the dynamics of the pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa), a severe pest of Pinus species in the Circunmediterranean, throughout a region of southern Spain, in relation to NAO indices. We related the percentage of forest plots with high defoliation by pine processionary moth each year with NAO values for the present and the three previous winters, using generalized linear models with a binomial error distribution. The time series is 16-year long, and we performed analyses for the whole database and for the five main pine species separately. We found a consistent relationship between the response variable and the NAO index. The relationship is stronger with pine species living at medium-high altitudes, such as Aleppo (P. halepensis), black (P. nigra), and Scots (Pinus sylvestris) pine, which show the higher defoliation intensities up to 3?years after a negative NAO phase. The results highlight, for the first time, the usefulness of using global drivers in order to understand the dynamics of pest outbreaks at a regional scale, and they open the window to the development of NAO-based predictive models as an early-warning signal of severe pest outbreaks.     

Denudation and retreat of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil derived from in situ‐produced 10Be concentration in river sediment

The Serra do Mar escarpment, located along the southeastern coast of Brazil, is a high‐elevation passive margin escarpment. This escarpment evolved from the denudation of granites, migmatites and gneisses. The granites outcrop in the form of a ridge along the escarpment crest, due to its differential erosion (‘sugarloaf’ hills) from the surrounding lithologies. Several studies suggest that the passive margin escarpments are actively retreating toward the interior of the continent. However, no prior study has calculated the long‐term denudation rates of Serra do Mar to test this hypothesis. In this study, we measured the in situ‐produced ¹⁰Be concentration in fluvial sediments to quantify the catchment‐wide long‐term denudation rates of the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil. We sampled the fluvial sediments from ten watersheds that drain both sides of the escarpment. The average long‐term denudation rate of the oceanic side is between 2.1‐ and 2.6‐fold higher than the rate of the continental side: 26.04 ± 1.88 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 15.8 ka^‐1 and 46.6 ka^‐1) and 11.10 ± 0.37 mm ka^‐1 (integrating over between 52.9 ka^‐1 and 85.4 ka^‐1), respectively. These rates indicate that the coastal base level is controlling the escarpment retreat toward the continental high lands, which is consistent with observations made at other high‐elevation passive margins around the globe. The results also demonstrate the differential erosion along the Serra do Mar escarpment in southern Brazil during the Quaternary, where drainages over granites had lower average denudation rates in comparison with those over migmatites and gneisses. Moreover, the results demonstrate that the ocean‐facing catchments have been eroded more intensely than those facing the continent. The results also reveal that drainage over the granites decreases the average denudation rates of the ocean‐facing catchments and the ‘sugarloaf’ hills therefore are natural barriers that slowly retreat once they are exhumed. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.