RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100

Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 is a scenario that stabilizes radiative forcing at 4.5?W?m^?2 in the year 2100 without ever exceeding that value. Simulated with the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), RCP4.5 includes long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases, short-lived species, and land-use-land-cover in a global economic framework. RCP4.5 was updated from earlier GCAM scenarios to incorporate historical emissions and land cover information common to the RCP process and follows a cost-minimizing pathway to reach the target radiative forcing. The imperative to limit emissions in order to reach this target drives changes in the energy system, including shifts to electricity, to lower emissions energy technologies and to the deployment of carbon capture and geologic storage technology. In addition, the RCP4.5 emissions price also applies to land use emissions; as a result, forest lands expand from their present day extent. The simulated future emissions and land use were downscaled from the regional simulation to a grid to facilitate transfer to climate models. While there are many alternative pathways to achieve a radiative forcing level of 4.5?W?m^?2, the application of the RCP4.5 provides a common platform for climate models to explore the climate system response to stabilizing the anthropogenic components of radiative forcing.     

Largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides) and striped mullet (Mugil cephalus) as vectors of contaminants to human consumers in northwest Florida

The health benefits of regular consumption of fish and seafood have been espoused for many years. However, fish are also a potential source of environmental contaminants that have well known adverse effects on human health. We investigated the consumption risks for largemouth bass (Micropterus salmoides; n = 104) and striped mullet (Mugil cephalus; n = 170), two commonly harvested and consumed fish species inhabiting fresh and estuarine waters in northwest Florida. Skinless fillets were analyzed for total mercury, inorganic arsenic, polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins and polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDD/F), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and organochlorine pesticides. Contaminant levels were compared to screening values (SV) calculated using U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) recommendations for establishing consumption advisories. Largemouth bass were found to contain high levels of total mercury at all sampling locations (0.37–0.89 ug/g) and one location exhibited elevated total PCBs (39.4 ng/g). All of the samples exceeded Florida fish consumption advisory trigger levels for total mercury and one location exceeded the U.S. EPA SV for total PCBs. As a result of the high mercury levels, the non-cancer health risks (hazard index–HI) for bass were above 1 for all locations. Striped mullet from several locations with known point sources contained elevated levels of PCBs (overall range 3.4–59.3 ng/g). However, total mercury levels in mullet were low. Eight of the 16 mullet sampling locations exceeded the U.S. EPA SV for total PCBs and two locations exceeded an HI of 1 due to elevated PCBs. Despite the elevated levels of total PCBs in some samples, only two locations exceeded the acceptable cancer risk range and therefore cancer health risks from consumption of bass and mullet were determined to be low at most sampling locations.     

An investigation of recharge to the northern Adelaide plains aquifers using environmental tritium

Recharge to the Quaternary aquifers beneath the Northern Adelaide Plains was estimated to be 3.9 x 10⁶ m³/year using the environmental tritium concentration of water samples taken from suitably sited boreholes. Recharge to the Tertiary aquifers was estimated to be 0.4 x 10⁶m³/year, by the same isotopic techniques. These results may be compared with a total recharge by leakage through the beds of streams which cross the plain, estimated by the South Australian Department of Mines to be 6.4 x 10⁶ m³/year.     

Linking hurricane landfalls,precipitation variability,fires, and vegetation response over the past millennium from analysis of coastal lagoon sediments,southwestern Dominican Republic

We reconstructed the late-Holocene environmental history of a coastal lagoon in semi-arid southwestern Hispaniola through multiproxy analysis of a sediment core, including pollen, macroscopic and microscopic charcoal, loss-on-ignition analysis (LOI), stable isotope analysis, bulk density, and magnetic susceptibility. Four chronological accelerator mass spectrometry radiocarbon dates indicated that our core represents the past ~1000 years. We interpreted ten hurricanes events over the past millennium from high-resolution geological proxies, LOI data, and ostracod valve stable oxygen isotope data, thus producing the first long record of hurricanes from the Dominican Republic. Geological proxies indicated a high-energy event abruptly changed the ecosystem state of our core site from a shallow mangrove wetland to a lacustrine environment ~330 cal yr BP. We interpret the driver of that event to be the landfall of a strong hurricane that initiated lowland flooding, mangrove mortality, and subsequent peat collapse at the core site. Pollen data indicated that during the relatively moist Medieval Warm Period (MWP), hurricanes led to temporary declines in tropical dry forest taxa that recovered within several decades following disturbance. By comparison, during the relatively arid Little Ice Age (LIA), when precipitation was highly variable in the circum-Caribbean, closely spaced hurricanes seemed to delay forest recovery. Sedimentary charcoal concentrations revealed increased fire activity after inferred hurricane landfalls in the MWP, providing evidence of a link between enhanced biomass and fuel availability during moister periods and burning in recently disturbed dry forests and scrub of our semi-arid study region. Our interpretations of increased aridity and precipitation variability, indicated by alternating thin layers of microbial mats with evaporite layers, along with more frequent hurricanes from ~330 cal yr BP to present, generally agree with other sedimentary records from the circum-Caribbean, and may be linked to a more southerly position of the Intertropical Convergence Zone during the LIA.     

Incorporating Groundwater-Surface Water Interaction into River Management Models

Accurate representation of groundwater-surface water interactions is critical to modeling low river flows in the semi-arid southwestern United States. Although a number of groundwater-surface water models exist, they are seldom integrated with river operation/management models. A link between the object-oriented river and reservoir operations model, RiverWare, and the groundwater model, MODFLOW, was developed to incorporate groundwater-surface water interaction processes, such as river seepage/gains, riparian evapotranspiration, and irrigation return flows, into a rule-based water allocations model. An explicit approach is used in which the two models run in tandem, exchanging data once in each computational time step. Because the MODFLOW grid is typically at a finer resolution than RiverWare objects, the linked model employs spatial interpolation and summation for compatible communication of exchanged variables. The performance of the linked model is illustrated through two applications in the Middle Rio Grande Basin in New Mexico where overappropriation impacts endangered species habitats. In one application, the linked model results are compared with historical data; the other illustrates use of the linked model for determining management strategies needed to attain an in-stream flow target. The flows predicted by the linked model at gauge locations are reasonably accurate except during a few very low flow periods when discrepancies may be attributable to stream gaging uncertainties or inaccurate documentation of diversions. The linked model accounted for complex diversions, releases, groundwater pumpage, irrigation return flows, and seepage between the groundwater system and canals/drains to achieve a schedule of releases that satisfied the in-stream target flow.     

Groundwater Plans in the United States: Regulatory Frameworks and Management Goals

Groundwater management plans are an important tool for preventing and addressing degradation and depletion of the resource. Through plans, water users and regulators set forth goals and identify strategies to address the needs of multiple resource users while considering physical constraints of the groundwater resource. This research examines the status of groundwater management plans in the United States, identifying in which states groundwater management plans are produced and the circumstances that lead to the inclusion of quantifiable goals in those plans. Findings indicate that legal and regulatory requirements for quantifiable goals can lead to the development of more comprehensive groundwater management plans, and, that such goals can be set even when uncertainties exist.     

FITC‐conjugated lectins as a tool for differentiating between toxic and non‐toxic marine dinoflagellates

FITC‐conjugated lectins proved to be effective probes for differentiating between morphologically similar dinoflagellate species isolated from New Zealand coastal waters. In particular the binding (fluorescence) of peanut (PNA) lectin differentiated G. mikimotoi from Gymnodinium sp. (Waimangu) and G. pulchellum and the non‐binding of Helix pomatia (HPA) and wheat germ (WGA) lectins discriminated between G. mikimotoi and the other Gymnodinium species tested. G. breve (Florida) was differentiated from the New Zealand isolates by binding with soy bean (SBA) lectin. Ulex europeus (UEA) distinguished the toxic species Alexandrium minutum from the morphologically similar, but non‐toxic, Cachonina hallii. Two strains of Prorocentrum lima (Spain and Rangaunu) were not differentiated by the lectins, but P. lima was differentiated from P. compressum.     

Saturn meteorology: A diagnostic assessment of thin-layer configurations for the zonal flow

Voyager imaging, infrared, and radio observations for Saturn have been recently interpreted by Smith et al. (1982) as an indication that the jet streams observed at the cloud tops extend to depths greater than the 10⁴-bar level. This analysis assumes a maximum latitudinal temperature contrast of a few percent, a mean atmospheric rotation rate at depth given by Saturn's ratio period, and no variation with latitude of the bottom pressure level for the zonal flow system. These assumptions are not, however, firmly constrained by observation. The diagnostic analysis of plausible alternative configurations for Saturn's atmospheric structure demonstrates that a thin weather layer system (confined at mid to high latitudes to levels above 200 bar) cannot be excluded by any of the available observations. A quantitative estimate of the effects of moisture condensation (including the differentiation of mean molecular weight) suggests that these might provide the buoyancy contrasts necessary to support a thin-layer flow provided that Saturn's outer envelope is enriched approximately 10 times in water abundance relative to a solar composition atmosphere and strongly differentiated with latitude at the condensation level.     

A study on geology,geomorphology, hydrology,groundwater, and physical resources of the desertified Badia environment in Jordan towards sustainable development

This paper summarizes information on geomorphology and physical resources as a part of the Jordan Badia Research and Development Program. The research focused on the issue of the environment in arid lands as an aid to providing practical options for sustainable development, for the benefit not only of the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan but of other arid regions of the world. The research is significant in that there is a need to identify usable natural resources and establish a framework for their effective exploitation and management in a marginal, fragile environment, which is sensitive to change. Pressure for development of the Badia stems from the fact that the great majority of the population in Jordan is compressed into less than 10% of the country by environmental constraints. It is hoped that the Jordan Badia Research and Development Program will provide the required framework to ease current environmental pressures, encourage migration to the Badia, a sparsely populated region, and establish economically and ecologically self-supporting communities. This paper discusses the following areas that are related to the sustainable development of the Jordan Badia with special emphasis on the Safawi area in the northern Jordan Badia; geomorphology, including landform, processes, and hazards; geology and physical resources; hydrology; surface water and water engineering; and groundwater.