The influence of thermochemical convection on the fixity of mantle plumes

A general feature of both isochemical and thermochemical studies of mantle convection is that horizontal plume velocities tend to be smaller than typical convective velocities, however, it is not clear which system leads to a greater fixity of mantle plumes. We perform two- and three-dimensional numerical calculations and compare both thermochemical and isochemical cases with similar convective vigor to determine whether presence of a dense component in the mantle can lead to smaller ratios of horizontal plume velocity to surface velocity. We investigate different viscosity and density contrasts between chemical components in the thermochemical calculations, and we perform isochemical calculations with both free-slip and no-slip bottom boundary conditions. We then compare both visually and quantitatively the results of the thermochemical and isochemical calculations to determine which leads to greater plume fixity. We find that horizontal plume velocities for thermochemical calculations are similar to those from isochemical calculations with no-slip bottom boundary conditions. In addition, we find that plumes tend to be more fixed for isochemical cases with free-slip bottom boundary conditions for two-dimensional calculations, however, in three dimensions, we find that plume fixity is similar to that observed in thermochemical calculations.     

Oxygen‐18 dynamics in precipitation and streamflow in a semi‐arid agricultural watershed,Eastern Washington,USA

Understanding flow pathways and mechanisms that generate streamflow is important to understanding agrochemical contamination in surface waters in agricultural watersheds. Two environmental tracers, δ¹⁸O and electrical conductivity (EC), were monitored in tile drainage (draining 12 ha) and stream water (draining nested catchments of 6‐5700 ha) from 2000 to 2008 in the semi‐arid agricultural Missouri Flat Creek (MFC) watershed, near Pullman Washington, USA. Tile drainage and streamflow generated in the watershed were found to have baseline δ¹⁸O value of ?14·7‰ (VSMOW) year round. Winter precipitation accounted for 67% of total annual precipitation and was found to dominate streamflow, tile drainage, and groundwater recharge. ‘Old’ and ‘new’ water partitioning in streamflow were not identifiable using δ¹⁸O, but seasonal shifts of nitrate‐corrected EC suggest that deep soil pathways primarily generated summer streamflow (mean EC 250 µS/cm) while shallow soil pathways dominated streamflow generation during winter (EC declining as low as 100 µS/cm). Using summer isotopic and EC excursions from tile drainage in larger catchment (4700‐5700 ha) stream waters, summer in‐stream evaporation fractions were estimated to be from 20% to 40%, with the greatest evaporation occurring from August to October. Seasonal watershed and environmental tracer dynamics in the MFC watershed appeared to be similar to those at larger watershed scales in the Palouse River basin. A 0·9‰ enrichment, in shallow groundwater drained to streams (tile drainage and soil seepage), of δ¹⁸O values from 2000 to 2008 may be evidence of altered precipitation conditions due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) in the Inland Northwest. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Continental margin syn‐rift salt tectonics at intermediate width margins

This paper examines interactions among syn‐rift continental margin extension, evaporites, particularly rocksalt (halite), deposited in the overlying sedimentary basins, and clastic sediment loading. We present dynamically evolving 2D numerical models that combine syn‐rift lithospheric extension, with salt (viscous halite, 10¹⁸–10¹⁹ Pa s) and clastic (frictional‐plastic) sediment deposition to investigate how salt is distributed and subsequently mobilized during syn‐rift extension. Example results are shown, contrasting salt deposition in the early, mid and late syn‐rift phases of a single lithospheric extension model. The lithospheric model is chosen to give depth‐dependent extension and intermediate width margins with proximal grabens and a hyperextended distal region. The models exhibit diachronous migration of extension towards the rift axis and this is reflected in the faulting of overlying sediments. The models illustrate the roles of timing of salt deposition, relative to rifting and subsequent sedimentation, in defining the location and deformation of syn‐rift salt, with post‐salt sediment progradation in some models. Late deposition of salt leads to increased lateral extent of the original salt body and decreased variation in salt thickness. Seaward flow of salt increases with later deposition; early syn‐rift salt is deposited and trapped in the grabens, whereas mid and late syn‐rift salt tends to flow towards the distal margin or even over the oceanic crust. Prograding clastic post‐salt sediments drive more substantial seaward movement of mid and late syn‐rift salt. A numerical model of the Red Sea with evaporite deposition during the mid to late syn‐rift period, preceded and followed by aggrading and prograding clastic sediment, shows reasonable agreement with observations from the central Red Sea.     

Long-range precipitation forecasts using paleoclimate reconstructions in the western United States

Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies.Oceanicatmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation.Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations,a short instrumental record is a limitation in using them for long-range precipitation forecasts.The influence of oscillations over precipitation is observable within paleoclimate reconstructions;however,there have been no attempts to utilize these reconstructions in precipitation forecasting.A data-driven model,KStar,is used for obtaining long-range precipitation forecasts by extending the period of record through the use of reconstructions of oscillations.KStar is a nearest neighbor algorithm with an entropy-based distance function.Oceanic-atmospheric oscillation reconstructions include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO).Precipitation is forecasted for 20 climate divisions in the western United States.A 10-year moving average is applied to aid in the identification of oscillation phases.A lead time approach is used to simulate a one-year forecast,with a 10-fold cross-validation technique to test the models.Reconstructions are used from 1658-1899,while the observed record is used from 1900-2007.The model is evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE),root mean squared error(RMSE),RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio(RSR),Pearson’s correlation coefficient(R),NashSutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE),and linear error in probability space(LEPS) skill score(SK).The role of individual and coupled oscillations is evaluated by dropping oscillations in the model.The results indicate ’good’ precipitation estimates using the KStar model.This modeling technique is expected to be useful for long-term water resources planning and management.     

Protection of marine birds and turtles at St Brandon’s Rock,Indian Ocean,requires conservation of the entire atoll

A survey of seabirds and turtles at St Brandon’s Rock, 400 km north of Mauritius, was undertaken in 2010. We estimated that 1 084 191 seabirds comprising seven breeding species and excluding non-breeders were present at the archipelago and we counted 279 turtle tracks and nesting pits of green turtles Chelonia mydas. Hawksbill turtles Eretmochelys imbricata were also present. Analyses of 30 different islets that make up the atoll showed that the seabird species mostly partitioned their use of islets based on islet size, with four species preferring larger islets and two species preferring smaller islets. Alien species introduced historically are still present and other threats, such as shipwrecks, remain. We propose conservation and other measures that should adequately protect the birds, turtles and coral reef by treating the atoll as a system.     

Sedimentology of the continental end‐Permian extinction event in the Sydney Basin,eastern Australia

Upper Permian to Lower Triassic coastal plain successions of the Sydney Basin in eastern Australia have been investigated in outcrop and continuous drillcores. The purpose of the investigation is to provide an assessment of palaeoenvironmental change at high southern palaeolatitudes in a continental margin context for the late Permian (Lopingian), across the end‐Permian Extinction interval, and into the Early Triassic. These basins were affected by explosive volcanic eruptions during the late Permian and, to a much lesser extent, during the Early Triassic, allowing high‐resolution age determination on the numerous tuff horizons. Palaeobotanical and radiogenic isotope data indicate that the end‐Permian Extinction occurs at the top of the uppermost coal bed, and the Permo‐Triassic boundary either within an immediately overlying mudrock succession or within a succeeding channel sandstone body, depending on locality due to lateral variation. Late Permian depositional environments were initially (during the Wuchiapingian) shallow marine and deltaic, but coastal plain fluvial environments with extensive coal‐forming mires became progressively established during the early late Permian, reflected in numerous preserved coal seams. The fluvial style of coastal plain channel deposits varies geographically. However, apart from the loss of peat‐forming mires, no significant long‐term change in depositional style (grain size, sediment‐body architecture, or sediment dispersal direction) was noted across the end‐Permian Extinction (pinpointed by turnover of the palaeoflora). There is no evidence for immediate aridification across the boundary despite a loss of coal from these successions. Rather, the end‐Permian Extinction marks the base of a long‐term, progressive trend towards better‐drained alluvial conditions into the Early Triassic. Indeed, the floral turnover was immediately followed by a flooding event in basinal depocentres, following which fluvial systems similar to those active prior to the end‐Permian Extinction were re‐established. The age of the floral extinction is constrained to 252.54 ± 0.08 to 252.10 ± 0.06 Ma by a suite of new Chemical Abrasion Isotope Dilution Thermal Ionization Mass Spectrometry U‐Pb ages on zircon grains. Another new age indicates that the return to fluvial sedimentation similar to that before the end‐Permian Extinction occurred in the basal Triassic (prior to 251.51 ± 0.14 Ma). The character of the surface separating coal‐bearing pre‐end‐Permian Extinction from coal‐barren post‐end‐Permian Extinction strata varies across the basins. In basin‐central locations, the contact varies from disconformable, where a fluvial channel body has cut down to the level of the top coal, to conformable where the top coal is overlain by mudrocks and interbedded sandstone–siltstone facies. In basin‐marginal locations, however, the contact is a pronounced erosional disconformity with coarse‐grained alluvial facies overlying older Permian rocks. There is no evidence that the contact is everywhere a disconformity or unconformity.     

Three decades of landslide activity in western Nepal: new insights into trends and climate drivers

In recent decades, landslide disasters in the Himalayas, as in other mountain regions, are widely reported to have increased. While some studies have suggested a link to increasing heavy rainfall under a warmer climate, others pointed to anthropogenic influences on slope stability, and increasing exposure of people and assets located in harm’s way. A lack of sufficiently high-resolution regional landslide inventories, both spatially and temporally, has prevented any robust consensus so far. Focusing on Far-Western Nepal, we draw on remote sensing techniques to create a regional inventory of 26,350 single landslide events, of which 8778 date to the period 1992–2018. These events serve as a basis for the analyses of landslide frequency relationships and trends in relation to precipitation and temperature datasets. Results show a strong correlation between the annual number of shallow landslides and the accumulated monsoon precipitation (r = 0.74). Furthermore, warm and dry monsoons followed by especially rainy monsoons produce the highest incidence of shallow landslides (r = 0.77). However, we find strong spatial variability in the strength of these relationships, which is linked to recent demographic development in the region. This highlights the role of anthropogenic drivers, and in particular road cutting and land-use change, in amplifying the seasonal monsoon influence on slope stability. In parallel, the absence of any long-term trends in landslide activity, despite widely reported increase in landslide disasters, points strongly to increasing exposure of people and infrastructure as the main driver of landslide disasters in this region of Nepal. By contrast, no climate change signal is evident from the data.

     

Late pleistocene (Devensian) glaciofluvial outwash at Banc-y-Warren,near Cardigan (west Wales)

On the southwest-facing slopes of a bedrock ridge lying between Cardigan Bay to the north and the Afon Teifi to the south stands a group of hills in which 30-35 m of cross-laminated and parallel-laminated sands with lenticular upward-fining gravel sequences are overlain by 10-12 m of gravel in a single foreset bed. The sediments mantle a surface of till sloping gently toward the southwest, were transported toward the southwest (across one margin of the Afon Teifi valley), and were cut by a system of densely arranged conjugate normal faults striking northwest-southeast. The lenticular gravels and fault system suggest that the deposits accumulated as a glaciofluvial outwash spread, and on top of an ice-lobe that became isolated in the Teifi valley during the downwasting of a glacier which had occupied Cardigan Bay and much of the country to the south. The large gravel foresets capping the succession are the only indication at Banc-y-Warren of the former existence of a lake, but neither a large nor deep body of water need be envisaged.