Maritime tsunami evacuation guidelines for the Pacific Northwest coast of Oregon

Recent tsunamis affecting the West Coast of the USA have resulted in significant damage to ports and harbors, as well as to recreational and commercial vessels attempting to escape the tsunami. With the completion of tsunami inundation simulations for a distant tsunami originating from the Aleutian Islands and a locally generated tsunami on the Cascadia subduction zone (CSZ), the State of Oregon is now able to provide guidance on the magnitudes and directions of the simulated currents for the Oregon coast and shelf region. Our analyses indicate that first wave arrivals for an Aleutian Island event would take place on the north coast,?~?3 h 40 min after the start of the earthquake,?~?20 min later on the southern Oregon coast. The simulations demonstrated significant along-coast variability in both the tsunamis water levels and currents, caused by localized bathymetric effects (e.g., submarine banks and reefs). A locally generated CSZ event would reach the open coast within 7–13 min; maximum inundation occurs at?~?30–40 min. As the tsunami current velocities increase, the potential for damage in ports and harbors correspondingly increases, while also affecting a vessels ability to maintain control out on the ocean. Scientific consensus suggests that tsunami currents?<?1.54 m/s are unlikely to impact maritime safety in ports and harbors. No such guidance is available for boats operating on the ocean, though studies undertaken in Japan suggest that velocities in the region of 1–2 m/s may be damaging to boats. In addition to the effects of currents, there is the added potential for wave amplification of locally generated wind waves interacting with opposing tsunami currents in the offshore. Our analyses explore potential wave amplification effects for a range of generic sea states, ultimately producing a nomogram of wave amplification for a range of wave and opposing current conditions. These data will be useful for US Coast Guard and Port authorities as they evaluate maritime tsunami evacuation options for the Oregon coast. Finally, we identify three regions of hazard (high, moderate, and low) across the Oregon shelf, which can be used to help guide final designation of tsunami maritime evacuation zones for the coast.     

Molecular modelling of rare earth element complexation in subduction zone fluids

Complexation of (trace) elements in fluids plays a critical role in determining element mobility in subduction zones, but to date, the atomic-scale processes controlling elemental solubilities are poorly understood. As a first step towards computer simulation of element complexation in subduction zone fluids, a thermodynamic cycle was developed to investigate the hydration environment and energetics of lanthanide complexes using density functional theory. The first solvation shell is explicitly defined and the remaining part of the aqueous fluid is modelled using a polarisable continuum model, which allows extrapolation to a broad pressure and temperature range.We illustrate our method by comparing solvation of lanthanide series elements in H₂O in the presence of fluoride or chloride for conditions relevant to subduction zones. The energetics of lanthanide- and lanthanide-fluoride/chloride hydration complexes were determined computationally. Calculated hydration free energies for trivalent lanthanides with explicit eight- and nine-fold coordinated first hydration shells show good agreement with literature data at room pressure and temperature. The hydration free energy is more negative for smaller complexes (heavy lanthanides) relative to larger complexes (light lanthanides), with the difference between La and Lu in water amounting to 361 kJ mol⁻¹. The hydration free energy of all lanthanide ions becomes less negative with increasing pressure (p) and temperature (T) up to 2.5 GPa and 1000 K (typical conditions in the upper part of subducting slabs). The free energy difference between light- and heavy-lanthanides remains essentially unchanged at elevated (p, T) conditions. There are minor geometrical differences in local hydration environment between light lanthanide-chloride (La-Nd) and heavy lanthanide-chloride (Pm-Lu) hydrated complexes, without a distinguishable energy difference. Complexation with fluoride is energetically more favourable than with chloride by 206 ± 4 kJ mol⁻¹ across the entire lanthanide series. The association of fluoride-water and chloride-water fragments with lanthanide-water complexes is energetically more favourable for aqueous lanthanide complexes surrounded by fewer first hydration shell water molecules.The methods developed in this study, in conjunction with simulation of the energetics of trace element incorporation into minerals, open the possibility to use molecular modelling to constrain elemental behaviour in subduction zones.     

From mush to eruption in centuries: assembly of the super-sized Oruanui magma body

The magmatic systems that give rise to voluminous crystal-poor rhyolite magma bodies can be considered to operate on two contrasting timescales: Those governed by longer-term processes by which a magma acquires its chemical and isotopic characteristics (e.g., fractional crystallisation and assimilation), and those operating at shorter timescales during the physical accumulation of the melt-dominant magma body that finally erupts. We explore the compositional and textural relationships between amphibole and orthopyroxene crystals from the 25.4 ka, 530 km³ (magma) Oruanui eruption products (Taupo volcano, New Zealand) to investigate how processes related to the physical assembly of the pre-eruptive magma body are represented in the crystal record. Over 90 % of orthopyroxenes from the volumetrically dominant high-SiO₂ (>74 wt%) rhyolite pumices record textural evidence for a significant disequilibrium event (partial dissolution ± resorption of cores and interiors) prior to the growth of 40–500 μm thick rim zones. This dissolution/regrowth history of orthopyroxene is recorded in the chemistry of co-crystallising amphiboles as a prominent inflection in the concentrations of Mn and Zn, two elements notably enriched in orthopyroxene relative to amphibole. Textural and chemical features, linked with in situ thermobarometric estimates, indicate that a major decompression event preceded the formation of the melt-dominant body. The decompression event is inferred to represent the extraction of large volumes of melt plus crystals from the Oruanui crystal mush/source zone at pressures of 140–300 MPa (~6–12 km depth). Orthopyroxene underwent partial dissolution during ascent before reestablishing in the melt-dominant magma body at pressures of 90–140 MPa (~3.5–6 km). We model Fe–Mg diffusion across the core-rim boundaries along the crystallographic a or b-axes to constrain the timing of this decompression event, which marked establishment of the melt-dominant magma body. Maximum modelled ages indicate that this event did not begin until ~1,600 years before eruption, consistent with constraints from zircon model-age spectra. Once extraction began, it underwent runaway acceleration with a peak extraction age of ~230 years, followed by an apparent period of stasis of ~60 years prior to eruption. The rapidity of the extraction and accumulation processes implies the involvement of a dynamic driving force which, in the rifted continental arc setting of the Taupo Volcanic Zone, seems likely to be represented by magma-assisted extensional tectonic processes.     

Geochemical characteristics of Cocos Plate seamount lavas

A wide compositional continuum of basalts has been erupted from near-ridge seamounts constructed on the Cocos Plate between the Clipperton and Orozco Francture Zones. They range from highly evolved to moderately primitive (3.0–7.8% MgO), LREE-enriched alkali basalts, to moderately evolved to near-primary (5.2–9.5% MgO) tholeiites indistinguishable from N-type MORB. The data set of 159 quench glass analyses exhibits a remarkably consistent variation in both major and trace element composition that is keyed to variations in (La/Sm). Modeling of potential liquid lines of descent at pressures ranging from 1 bar to 8 kbar shows that this covariation is partially due to systematic differences in liquid lines of descent, where the alkaline lavas have undergone substantially more high pressure clinopyroxene fractionation and substantially less low pressure plagioclase fractionation than the tholeiites. In addition, systematic variation in the composition of the more primitive glasses indicates that they were derived from mixing of discrete enriched and depleted melts in the heterogenous seamount mantle source at pressures of 8–10 kbar and greater, and that clinopyroxene may be a residual phase during partial melting. These results show that porous media flow in the seamount mantle source is minor and that melt transport is accomplished primarily through cracking and diking. This study supports suggestions that the general homogeneity of basalt along the EPR is due to mixing in sub-axial magma chambers and mush zones, with additional mixing during partial mantle melting and melt segregation.     

Macroinvertebrate associations on the egg masses of the sea hare,Aplysia brasiliana rang (Gastropoda: Opisthobranchia)

We examined the assemblage of macroinvertebrates that inhabits the egg masses of the sea hareAplysia brasiliana Rang. A total of 3,721 individuals belonging to 31 invertebrate species was recovered from 107 egg masses collected in the Indian River Lagoon in east-central Florida. The egg mass associates appeared to be a subset of the surrounding faunal assemblage. Amphipods, polychaetes, and molluscs comprised the majority of the egg mass fauna. Of these, approximately 10 species were abundant, and were collected with high frequency in the egg masses examined. Association analysis of the distribution patterns of the more common species indicates that only positive first order effects and second order interactions were potentially important in this assemblage.     

Geochronology of Precambrian rocks in the Laramie Range and implications for the tectonic framework of Precambrian southern Wyoming

From Casper Mountain; at its northern end, to the northwestern margin of the Laramie anorthosite—syenite complex, in its central parts, the Laramie Range is underlain by granite and granitic gneiss that has a minimum age of 2.54 ± 0.04 Ga (Rb/Sr whole-rock isochron) and by metasedimentary rocks, including marble and quartzite, that appear to overlie the granitic gneiss nonconformably (minimum age: 1.7 Ga based on several horn-blende K/Ar dates). Southward from the anorthosite—syenite complex into Colorado, the Range is underlain chiefly by the Sherman Granite (1.41 Ga; Peterman and Hedge, 1968) and scattered patches of gneiss that are not dated, but are tentatively correlated wit similar gneiss in the southern Medicine Bow Mountains and in the Colorado Front Range, where they are dated as ? 1.7 Ga (Peterman and Hedge, 1968).The Laramie anorthosite—syenite complex (minimum age: ? 1.42 Ga or ? 1.51 Ga if a hornblende K/Ar date is accepted) apparently intruded the suture separating the old (? 2.5 Ga) continental edge from younger (? 1.7 Ga) geosynclinal rocks. The suture, which manifests itself as the Mullen Creek—Nash Fork shear zone in the Medicine Bow Mountains, also is the boundary between ensialic and ensimatic geosynclinal deposition that occurred during the interval 1.7–2.5 Ga ago.K/Ar dates on biotite and muscovite from rocks north of the anorthosite—syenite complex grade from 2.5 Ga on Casper Mountain down to 1.38 Ga near the complex. Near its northern tip, the Laramie Range is crossed by a geochronologic front, separating 2.5 Ga old gneiss whose K/Ar dates were not lowered by subsequent metamorphism from 2.5 Ga old gneiss whose mica dates were reset between 1.4 and 1.6 Ga ago.     

Virtual water ‘flows’ of the Nile Basin, 1998–2004: A first approximation and implications for water security

This paper interprets an initial approximation of the ‘trade’ in virtual water of Nile Basin states in terms of national water security. The virtual water content (on the basis of weight) of select recorded crop and livestock trade between 1998 and 2004 is provided, and analysed for each state separately, for the Southern Nile and Eastern Nile states as groups, and for the basin states as a whole. To the extent that the datasets allow, the distinction between rainfed and irrigated production is maintained. During the period under study, Nile Basin states ‘exported’ about 14,000 Mm³ of primarily rainfed-derived virtual water outside of the basin annually and ‘imported’ roughly 41,000 Mm³/y. The ‘imports’ are considered to have played a key role in filling the freshwater deficits of Egypt and Sudan, and represent a third of the flow of the Nile River itself. Analysis of food trade within the basin shows that the equivalent of small rivers of water used to raise coffee and tea ‘flow’ from the highlands around Lake Victoria to Egypt and Sudan. Because the bulk of these ‘flows’ derive from rainfed agriculture, the virtual water ‘traded’ annually between the Nile Basin states is not considered to represent a significant demand on the water resources of the basin, nor to significantly remedy the freshwater deficits of the arid basin states. The importance of soil water and rainfed farming is in improving water security is highlighted. The limitations and merits of the inter-state basin-wide approach are also discussed. By highlighting the magnitude of water leaving and entering states in its virtual form, the approach obliges policy-makers to think beyond the basin and reconsider the concept of water security within broader political, environmental, social and economic forces.