Simulating Spatial Dynamics and Processes in a Retail Gasoline Market: An Agent‐Based Modeling Approach

Simulating the dynamics and processes within a spatially influenced retail market, such as the retail gasoline market, is a highly challenging research area. Current approaches are limited through their inability to model the impact of supplier or consumer behavior over both time and space. Agent‐based models (ABMs) provide an alternative approach that overcomes these problems. We demonstrate how knowledge of retail pricing is extended by using a ‘hybrid’ model approach: an agent model for retailers and a spatial interaction model for consumers. This allows the issue of spatial competition between individual retailers to be examined in a way only accessible to agent‐based models, allowing each model retailer autonomous control over optimizing their price. The hybrid model is shown to be successful at recreating spatial pricing dynamics at a national scale, simulating the effects of a rise in crude oil prices as well as accurately predicting which retailers were most susceptible to closure over a 10‐year period.     

Velocity and Temperature Dissimilarity in the Surface Layer Uncovered by the Telegraph Approximation

We consider the Janjic (NCEP Office Note 437:61, 2001) boundary-layer model, which is one of the most widely used in numerical weather prediction models. This boundary-layer model is based on a number of length scales that are, in turn, obtained from a master length multiplied by constants. We analyze the simulation results obtained using different sets of constants with respect to measurements using sonic anemometers, and interpret these results in terms of the turbulence processes in the atmosphere and of the role played by the different length scales. The simulations are run on a virtual machine on the Chameleon cloud for low-wind-speed, unstable, and stable conditions.

     

Revised 14C dating of ice wedge growth in interior Alaska (USA) to MIS 2 reveals cold paleoclimate and carbon recycling in ancient permafrost terrain

Establishing firm radiocarbon chronologies for Quaternary permafrost sequences remains a challenge because of the persistence of old carbon in younger deposits. To investigate carbon dynamics and establish ice wedge formation ages in Interior Alaska, we dated a late Pleistocene ice wedge, formerly assigned to Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3, and host sediments near Fairbanks, Alaska, with 24 radiocarbon analyses on wood, particulate organic carbon (POC), air-bubble CO₂, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). Our new CO₂ and DOC ages are up to 11,170 yr younger than ice wedge POC ages, indicating that POC is detrital in origin. We conclude an ice wedge formation age between 28 and 22 cal ka BP during cold stadial conditions of MIS 2 and solar insolation minimum, possibly associated with Heinrich event 2 or the last glacial maximum. A DOC age for an ice lens in a thaw unconformity above the ice wedge returned a maximum age of 21,470 ± 200 cal yr BP. Our variable ¹⁴C data indicate recycling of older carbon in ancient permafrost terrain, resulting in radiocarbon ages significantly older than the period of ice-wedge activity. Release of ancient carbon with climatic warming will therefore affect the global ¹⁴C budget.     

Paleowind velocity and paleocurrents of pluvial Lake Manly,Death Valley,USA

Pluvial lake deposits are found throughout western North America and are frequently used to reconstruct regional paleoclimate. In Death Valley, California, USA, we apply the beach particle technique (BPT) of Adams (2003), Sedimentology, 50, 565–577 and Adams (2004), Sedimentology, 51, 671–673 to Lake Manly deposits at the Beatty Junction Bar Complex (BJBC), Desolation Canyon, and Manly Terraces and calculate paleowind velocities of 14–27 m/s. These wind velocities are within the range of present-day wind velocities recorded in the surrounding area. Sedimentary structures and clast provenance at Desolation Canyon and the Manly Terraces indicate sediment transport from north to south. Lake level, based on the elevation of constructional features, indicates that the hill west of the BJBC was an island and that the BJBC spits formed during simple lake regression. The data are consistent with the hypothesis that the present wind regime (velocity and direction) formed the pluvial Lake Manly features.     

Understanding groundwater processes by representing aquifer heterogeneity in the Maules Creek Catchment, Namoi Valley (New South Wales, Australia)

A FEFLOW three-dimensional (3D) groundwater model is developed to enhance the understanding of groundwater processes in the complex alluvial stratigraphy of Maules Creek Catchment (New South Wales, Australia). The aquifer vertical heterogeneity is replicated by indexing 204 lithological logs into units of high or low hydraulic conductivity, and by developing a 3D geological conceptual model with a vertical resolution based on the average lithological unit thickness for the region. The model mesh is populated with the indexed geology using nearest neighbour gridding. The calibrated model is successful in simulating the observed flow dynamics and in quantifying the important water-budget components. This indicates that the lateral groundwater flow from the mountainous region is the main inflow component of the system. Under natural conditions, the Namoi River acts as a sink of water, but groundwater abstraction increasingly removes a large amount of water each year causing dewatering of the system. The pumping condition affects the river–aquifer interaction by reversing the flow, from gaining to losing river conditions during the simulation period. The procedure is relevant for the development of groundwater models of heterogeneous systems in order to improve the understanding of the interplay between aquifer architecture and groundwater processes.     

Observations of Thin Layers in Coastal Hawaiian Waters

Thin layers of plankton have been documented in a wide variety of environments. The growing body of observations indicates that these features are a critical component of marine ecosystem dynamics and functioning. In the past two decades, much of the research on thin layers was undertaken in temperate coastal waters. Here, we report the first known observations of thin layers of phytoplankton in tropical Hawaiian waters. We conducted an overnight shipboard study during which time we made high-resolution observations of physical and optical structure in the water column. During the overnight cruise, we observed the greatest number of thin layers in the early evening hours when thermal stratification was strongest and most persistent due to a combination of warm air and surface water, as well as light winds. A comparison of these observations with those from temperate regions leads us to hypothesize that the nature and persistence of the physical structure is very important in determining the persistence of thin layered structures. Because plankton biomass is generally lower in tropical regions, the heterogeneous aggregation of food in thin subsurface layers may be more critical to the marine ecosystem than it is in temperate regions where plankton are generally more abundant.     

Retrospective and prospective model simulations of sea level rise impacts on Gulf of Mexico coastal marshes and forests in Waccasassa Bay, Florida

The State of Florida (USA) is especially threatened by sea level rise due to extensive low elevation coastal habitats (approximately 8,000?km²?<?1?m above sea level) where the majority of the human population resides. We used the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) simulation to improve understanding of the magnitude and location of these changes for 58,000?ha of the Waccasassa Bay region of Florida??s central Gulf of Mexico coast. To assess how well SLAMM portrays changes in coastal wetland systems resulting from sea level rise, we conducted a hindcast in which we compared model results to 30?years of field plot data. Overall, the model showed the same pattern of coastal forest loss as observed. Prospective runs of SLAMM using 0.64?m, 1?m and 2?m sea level rise scenarios predict substantial changes over this century in the area covered by coastal wetland systems including net losses of coastal forests (69%, 83%, and 99%, respectively) and inland forests (33%, 50%, and 88%), but net gains of tidal flats (17%, 142%, and 3,837%). One implication of these findings at the site level is that undeveloped, unprotected lands inland from the coastal forest should be protected to accommodate upslope migration of this natural community in response to rising seas. At a broader scale, our results suggest that coastal wetland systems will be unevenly affected across the Gulf of Mexico as sea level rises. Species vulnerable to these anticipated changes will experience a net loss or even elimination.     

Provenance of chalk tesserae from Brading Roman Villa, Isle of Wight, UK

Thin section petrographical analysis of chalk tesserae at Brading Roman Villa, Isle of Wight, England, identifies a range of planktonic foraminifera and the calcareous algal cyst Pithonella that identify the Late Cenomanian Rotalipora cushmani Biozone (BGS Foraminiferal Biozones 4iii to 7). The local chalk crop to the north of the villa includes rocks of R. cushmani Biozone age, and indicates a likely local, rather than long distance, source for the tesserae. Microfossils provide a powerful tool for identifying the provenance of artefacts in Roman Britain.     

Hydroxyl stretching in phyllosilicates at high pressures and temperatures: an infrared spectroscopic study

The hydroxyl stretching frequencies of four phyllosilicates have been measured at high pressures and temperatures using an externally heated diamond-anvil cell and synchrotron infrared spectroscopy. Spectra were measured up to 26, 31, 21 and 8 GPa at room temperature for samples of talc, pyrophyllite, muscovite and 10-Å phase, respectively. Spectra were also measured in the range 273–500 K at ambient pressure for all samples and at 8–9 GPa for talc and pyrophyllite. The frequency of the Mg₃OH band in talc increases with pressure due to the absence of hydrogen bonding. The different orientation of the hydroxyl group in pyrophyllite and muscovite leads to hydrogen bonding and a decrease in the frequency of the Al₂OH band with pressure. 10-Å phase is approximately equivalent to talc with the addition of interlayer H₂O. In a spectrum of a sample synthesised for 143 h, two hydroxyl stretching bands are clearly resolved on compression. One is the same as the Mg₃OH band in talc, indicating the presence of intra-layer hydroxyl in a talc-like environment with no hydrogen bonding. The other, which separates from the talc-like band at 1 GPa, is associated with intra-layer hydroxyl that is hydrogen bonded to interlayer H₂O. There are equivalent bands in high-pressure spectra of a sample of deuterated 10-Å phase, synthesised for 400 h. This sample shows a greater extent of hydrogen bonding at ambient pressure than the 143 h sample. For all of the phases studied, increasing temperature leads to a decrease in frequency for every hydroxyl stretching vibration, both at low and high pressures. The shifts in frequency with temperature are an order of magnitude greater than the shifts with pressure when normalised to previously measured structural parameters.     

Exploring weathering and regolith transport controls on Critical Zone development with models and natural experiments

The architecture of the Critical Zone, including mobile regolith thickness and depth to the weathering front, is first order controlled by advance of a weathering front at depth and transport of sediment at the surface. Differences in conditions imposed by slope aspect in the Gordon Gulch catchment of the Boulder Creek Critical Zone Observatory present a natural experiment to explore these interactions. The weathering front is deeper and saprolite more decayed on north-facing than on south-facing slopes. Simple numerical models of weathering front advance, mobile regolith production, and regolith transport are used to test how weathering and erosion rates interact in the evolution of weathered profiles. As the processes which attempt are being made to mimic are directly tied to climate variables such as mean annual temperature, the role of Quaternary climate variation in governing the evolution of Critical Zone architecture can be explored with greater confidence.