Human damage assessments of coastal flooding for Hong Kong and the Pearl River Delta due to climate change-related sea level rise in the twenty-first century

Natural Hazards - The adverse impact of climate change-associated extreme weather events is becoming more significant globally, particularly the flood impact on coastal and low-lying areas such as...     

Multistage growth of Fe–Mg–carpholite and Fe–Mg–chloritoid,from field evidence to thermodynamic modelling

We provide new insights into the prograde evolution of HP/LT metasedimentary rocks on the basis of detailed petrologic examination, element-partitioning analysis, and thermodynamic modelling of well-preserved Fe–Mg–carpholite- and Fe–Mg–chloritoid-bearing rocks from the Afyon Zone (Anatolia). We document continuous and discontinuous compositional (ferromagnesian substitution) zoning of carpholite (overall X _Mg = 0.27–0.73) and chloritoid (overall X _Mg = 0.07–0.30), as well as clear equilibrium and disequilibrium (i.e., reaction-related) textures involving carpholite and chloritoid, which consistently account for the consistent enrichment in Mg of both minerals through time, and the progressive replacement of carpholite by chloritoid. Mg/Fe distribution coefficients calculated between carpholite and chloritoid vary widely within samples (2.2–20.0). Among this range, only values of 7–11 correlate with equilibrium textures, in agreement with data from the literature. Equilibrium phase diagrams for metapelitic compositions are calculated using a newly modified thermodynamic dataset, including most recent data for carpholite, chloritoid, chlorite, and white mica, as well as further refinements for Fe–carpholite, and both chloritoid end-members, as required to reproduce accurately petrologic observations (phase relations, experimental constraints, Mg/Fe partitioning). Modelling reveals that Mg/Fe partitioning between carpholite and chloritoid is greatly sensitive to temperature and calls for a future evaluation of possible use as a thermometer. In addition, calculations show significant effective bulk composition changes during prograde metamorphism due to the fractionation of chloritoid formed at the expense of carpholite. We retrieve P–T conditions for several carpholite and chloritoid growth stages (1) during prograde stages using unfractionated, bulk-rock XRF analyses, and (2) at peak conditions using compositions fractionated for chloritoid. The P–T paths reconstructed for the Kütahya and Afyon areas shed light on contrasting temperature conditions for these areas during prograde and peak stages.     

Precursors and fluid flows in the case of the 1996, ML = 5.2 Saint-Paul-de-Fenouillet earthquake (Pyrenees,France): A complete pre-, co- and post-seismic scenario

Earthquake precursors are now regularly described but often detected only after a major or moderate seismic event. Presence and influence of fluids in the seismogenic processes are often observed at the time of earthquake studies. Even today, the understanding of the physical processes involved in the source region is a real challenge for seismic hazard assessment. Here, the aftershock sequence of the M_L = 5.2, 1996 Saint-Paul-de-Fenouillet (Eastern Pyrenees, France) earthquake is first re-examined with P-wave cross-correlations, resulting in extracting three multiplets and in determining new locations. Multiplets and spatio-temporal distribution analysis of the aftershocks allow for quantifying the hydraulic diffusivity D at a maximum value of 5 m²/s and the permeability K at 10^? 15 m² in the upper Pyrenean crust. Second, a model is established in order to explain the hydrogeochemical transient anomalies, which occurred during the 15 day-period preceding the 1996 earthquake. These anomalies consist on a temporal and spatial sequence of gas emissions in the epicentral area and on chloride and lead concentration variations in a bottled mineral water 25 km north to the main shock epicenter. The proposed model processed in a standard elastic half-space, consists of creep on a low-angle crustal normal-fault, generating volumetric strain field changes over a distance of 25 km from the epicentral area. This model is able to constrain not only the mechanisms and the locations of the geochemical anomalies, but also their timing and probable casual links to the triggering of the impending major event. Also, the active extension proposed here is compatible with seismological observations in the Pyrenees. Thus, the possibility of such creep, which can be considered as a slow-slip event, is discussed in the Pyrenean tectonic and geological context. The model is discussed and compared to previous proposed models on precursor processes of earthquakes, especially concerning the preparation zone concept. Finally, a complete seismic scenario over the period beginning 15 days before the quake and ending 5 days after is proposed and discussed.     

Bioenergetics of microbial sulfur-redox reactions in a glacial environment

The authors are studying microbial sulfur redox metabolisms in a glacial environment. The energy available from sulfur redox reactions at this site has been calculated using geochemical data obtained from the site. DNA has been extracted from the same site and is being analyzed for the presence and relative quantities of sulfur redox genes, to determine whether bioenergetic calculations can predict the sulfur redox reactions that microbes are in fact utilizing.     

Simplifying the interpretation of continuous time models for spatio-temporal networks

Autoregressive and moving average models for temporally dynamic networks treat time as a series of discrete steps which assumes even intervals between data measurements and can introduce bias if this assumption is not met. Using real and simulated data from the London Underground network, this paper illustrates the use of continuous time multilevel models to capture temporal trajectories of edge properties without the need for simultaneous measurements, along with two methods for producing interpretable summaries of model results. These including extracting ‘features’ of temporal patterns (e.g. maxima, time of maxima) which have utility in understanding the network properties of each connection and summarising whole-network properties as a continuous function of time which allows estimation of network properties at any time without temporal aggregation of non-simultaneous measurements. Results for temporal pattern features in the response variable were captured with reasonable accuracy. Variation in the temporal pattern features for the exposure variable was underestimated by the models. The models showed some lack of precision. Both model summaries provided clear ‘real-world’ interpretations and could be applied to data from a range of spatio-temporal network structures (e.g. rivers, social networks). These models should be tested more extensively in a range of scenarios, with potential improvements such as random effects in the exposure variable dimension.

     

How much does dry‐season fog matter? Quantifying fog contributions to water balance in a coastal California watershed

The seasonally‐dry climate of Northern California imposes significant water stress on ecosystems and water resources during the dry summer months. Frequently during summer, the only water inputs occur as non‐rainfall water, in the form of fog and dew. However, due to spatially heterogeneous fog interaction within a watershed, estimating fog water fluxes to understand watershed‐scale hydrologic effects remains challenging. In this study, we characterized the role of coastal fog, a dominant feature of Northern Californian coastal ecosystems, in a San Francisco Peninsula watershed. To monitor fog occurrence, intensity, and spatial extent, we focused on the mechanisms through which fog can affect the water balance: throughfall following canopy interception of fog, soil moisture, streamflow, and meteorological variables. A stratified sampling design was used to capture the watershed's spatial heterogeneities in relation to fog events. We developed a novel spatial averaging scheme to upscale local observations of throughfall inputs and evapotranspiration suppression and make watershed‐scale estimates of fog water fluxes. Inputs from fog water throughfall (10–30 mm/year) and fog suppression of evapotranspiration (125 mm/year) reduced dry‐season water deficits by 25% at watershed scales. Evapotranspiration suppression was much more important for this reduction in water deficit than were direct inputs of fog water. The new upscaling scheme was analyzed to explore the sensitivity of its results to the methodology (data type and interpolation method) employed. This evaluation suggests that our combination of sensors and remote sensing allows an improved incorporation of spatially‐averaged fog fluxes into the water balance than traditional interpolation approaches.     

Geochemical Implications of Brine Leakage into Freshwater Aquifers

CO₂ injection into deep saline formations as a way to mitigate climate change raises concerns that leakage of saline waters from the injection formations will impact water quality of overlying aquifers, especially underground sources of drinking water (USDWs). This paper aims to characterize the geochemical composition of deep brines, with a focus on constituents that pose a human health risk and are regulated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA). A statistical analysis of the NATCARB brine database, combined with simple mixing model calculations, show total dissolved solids and concentrations of chloride, boron, arsenic, sulfate, nitrate, iron and manganese may exceed plant tolerance or regulatory levels. Twelve agricultural crops evaluated for decreased productivity in the event of brine leakage would experience some yield reduction due to increased TDS at brine‐USDW ratios of < 0.1, and a 50% yield reduction at < 0.2 brine‐USDW ratio. A brine‐USDW ratio as low as 0.004 may result in yield reduction in the most sensitive crops. The USEPA TDS secondary standard is exceeded at a brine fraction of approximately 0.002. To our knowledge, this is the first study to consider agricultural impacts of brine leakage, even though agricultural withdrawals of groundwater in the United States are almost three times higher than public and domestic withdrawals.