Définition de la perméabilité équivalente des massifs fracturés par des méthodes d'homogénéisationDefinition of the permeability of fractured rock masses by homogenisation methods

In the methods used for determination of the hydraulic behaviour at large scale of fractured rock masses, based on the simulation of flow in a fracture network, the mean flux and the mean pressure gradient in the network are not rigorously determined. A method is given for deriving these quantities, in a heterogeneous permeable block, from pressure and flux values on the boundary of the block. A block conductivity tensor is then defined, based on the condition of linear variation of the pressure on the boundary of the block. It is shown that this conductivity tensor is symmetric and positive-definite. An example of application to a model of fractured medium is given. To cite this article: A. Pouya, A. Courtois, C. R. Geoscience 334 (2002) 975–979.     

Genesis and evolution of low-Al orthopyroxene in spinel peridotite xenoliths, Grand Canyon field, Arizona, USA

Orthopyroxene porphyroblasts zoned to interiors abnormally low in Al and Cr and containing numerous inclusions of olivine occur in some spinel peridotite xenoliths from the Colorado Plateau. Rims of these orthopyroxene grains contain 2.5–3.0 wt% Al₂O₃, consistent with equilibration in spinel peridotite at temperatures near 850 °C, but interiors contain as little as 0.20 wt% Al₂O₃ and 0.04 wt% Cr₂O₃. The Al-poor compositions are inferred to have equilibrated in chlorite peridotite, before porphyroblast growth during heating and consequent reactions that eliminated talc, tremolite, and chlorite. The distinctive orthopyroxene textures are inferred to have formed during reaction of talc and olivine. Rare intergrowths of orthopyroxene plus diopside are attributed to olivine-tremolite reaction. Al and Cr have gradients at grain rims that appear little modified by diffusion, but divalent elements are almost homogeneous throughout the porphyroblasts. Judging from the relative gradients, diffusion of Ca was at least 100 times faster than that of Al and Cr at the temperatures near and below 850 °C. Diffusion of Al and Cr was most effective along subgrain boundaries, and along these boundaries it appears to have been at least ten times faster than within the lattice: diffusion along such boundaries may be a dominant mechanism for re-equilibration of orthopyroxene at low mantle temperatures. Orthopyroxene with similar low Al and Cr occurs in chlorite peridotite xenoliths from the Navajo field, 300 km east of the Grand Canyon localities, and in spinel peridotite xenoliths from the Sierra Nevada, 500 km west across the extended Basin and Range province. Chlorite peridotite may therefore have been a significant minor component in much of the mantle lithosphere of western North America, although evidence for it would be erased at the higher temperatures recorded by xenoliths from the Basin and Range. Chemical changes during hydration may have been important in the evolution of these mantle volumes, and the case for addition of Sr is particularly strong. Dehydration reactions during heating could have influenced patterns of extension and crustal magmatism. Received: 1 July 1996 / Accepted: 2 December 1996     

Seismic‐stratigraphic record of a deglaciation sequence: from the marine Laflamme Gulf to Lake Saint‐Jean (late Quaternary,Québec,Canada)

The stratigraphy of the last deglaciation sequence is investigated in Lake Saint‐Jean (Québec Province, Canada) based on 300 km of echo‐sounder two dimensional seismic profiles. The sedimentary archive of this basin is documented from the Late Pleistocene Laurentidian ice‐front recession to the present‐day situation. Ten seismic units have been identified that reflect spatio‐temporal variations in depositional processes characterizing different periods of the Saint‐Jean basin evolution. During the postglacial marine flooding, a high deposition rate of mud settling, from proglacial glacimarine and then prodeltaic plumes in the Laflamme Gulf, produced an extensive, up to 50 m thick mud sheet draping the isostatically depressed marine basin floor. Subsequently, a closing of the water body due to glacio‐isostatic rebound occurred at 8.5 cal. ka BP, drastically modifying the hydrodynamics. Hyperpycnal flows appeared because fresh lake water replaced dense marine water. River sediments were transferred towards the deeper part of the lake into river‐related sediment drifts and confined lobes. The closing of the water body is also marked by the onset of a wind‐driven internal circulation associating coastal hydrodynamics and bottom currents with sedimentary features including shoreface deposits, sediment drifts and a prograding shelf‐type body. The fingerprints of a forced regression are well expressed by mouth‐bar systems and by the shoreface–shelf system, the latter unexpected in such a lacustrine setting. In both cases, a regressive surface of lacustrine erosion (RSLE) has been identified, separating sandy mouth‐bar from glaciomarine to prodeltaic muds, and sandy shoreface wedges from the heterolithic shelf‐type body, respectively. The Lake Saint‐Jean record is an example of a regressive succession driven by a glacio‐isostatic rebound and showing the transition from late‐glacial to post‐glacial depositional systems.     

Geographically weighted elastic net logistic regression

This paper develops a localized approach to elastic net logistic regression, extending previous research describing a localized elastic net as an extension to a localized ridge regression or a localized lasso. All such models have the objective to capture data relationships that vary across space. Geographically weighted elastic net logistic regression is first evaluated through a simulation experiment and shown to provide a robust approach for local model selection and alleviating local collinearity, before application to two case studies: county-level voting patterns in the 2016 USA presidential election, examining the spatial structure of socio-economic factors associated with voting for Trump, and a species presence–absence data set linked to explanatory environmental and climatic factors at gridded locations covering mainland USA. The approach is compared with other logistic regressions. It improves prediction for the election case study only which exhibits much greater spatial heterogeneity in the binary response than the species case study. Model comparisons show that standard geographically weighted logistic regression over-estimated relationship non-stationarity because it fails to adequately deal with collinearity and model selection. Results are discussed in the context of predictor variable collinearity and selection and the heterogeneities that were observed. Ongoing work is investigating locally derived elastic net parameters.     

Application de la méthode des simulations croisées à l’analyse de tendances dans la relation pluie-débit à partir du modèle GR2M : cas du bassin versant du N’zi-Bandama (Côte d’Ivoire)

The study area is the N’zi watershed, sub-watershed of the Bandama River (Ivory Coast). The N’zi watershed is located between longitudes 3°49′ and 5°22′ West and latitudes 6°00′ and 9°26′ North and covers an area of 35,500 km². This study aims to identify trends in the rainfall-runoff relationship by using a monthly conceptual model. The methodology has consisted on the one hand in highlighting the existence of interannual climate and hydrological variability by using the method of segmentation of Hubert, and on the other hand, in applying the crossed simulations method by using the GR2M model, over several 7-year sub-periods. The results of the application of the method of segmentation of Hubert have demonstrated the presence of a hydroclimatic variability in the N’zi watershed. The modifications of the climate and physical conditions of the flow resulted in a modification of the hydrological response of the watershed translated by a non-stationarity in the rainfall-runoff relation.     

Aragonite depositional facies in a Late Ordovician calcite sea,Eastern Laurentia

The Black River (Upper Ordovician – Sandbian) and Trenton (Upper Ordovician – Katian) groups are traditionally interpreted as a deepening-upward succession deposited in a progressively subsiding Appalachian Basin margin that contained warm-water, marine, photozoan deposits that pass upward into cool-water, marine, heterozoan carbonates. This succession is customarily interpreted to reflect an incursion of cold, high-latitude ocean waters into the area. This view is herein confirmed for coeval carbonates in the northern part of the basin, particularly the St. Lawrence Platform. They are now well explained in this study on the basis of recent studies of cool-water carbonates and calcite–aragonite seas. Overall the succession is one of Sandbian photozoan ramp deposits succeeded by Katian heterozoan ramp carbonates that changed back to photozoan ramp deposits prior to the Hirnantian glaciation. The current interpretation, that deposition took place throughout a calcite sea time, seems at odds with this series of strata. Instead it is herein proposed that deposition took place during an aragonite sea time wherein calcite sea-like sediments accumulated under cold ocean-water temperatures. Such an interpretation is supported by recent experimental data that supports the importance of seawater temperature on CaCO₃ polymorph precipitation. If correct, this means that some of the evidence for calcite sea deposition through time brought about by global tectonics, should be re-evaluated to make sure it was not simply cool-water carbonate production.     

A detailed analysis of the February 1996 aftershock sequence in the eastern Pyrenees, France

Following the 1996 February 18 M _L = 5.2 earthquake in the Agly massif in the eastern French Pyrenees, we installed a temporary network of seismometers around the epicentre. In this paper, we analyse 336 well-located aftershocks recorded from February 19 to February 23 by 18 temporary stations and two permanent stations located less than 35  km from the epicentre. Most aftershocks have been located with an accuracy better than 1.5  km in both horizontal and vertical positions. Their spatial distribution suggests the reactivation of a known fault system. We determined 39 fault-plane solutions using P -wave first motions. Despite their diversity, the focal mechanisms yield an E–W subhorizontal T-axis. We also determined fault-plane solutions and principal stress axes using the method developed by Rivera & Cisternas (1990 ) for the 15 best-recorded events. We obtain a pure-shear-rupture tectonic regime under N–S subhorizontal compression and E–W subhorizontal extension. These principal stress axes, which explain the focal mechanisms for at least 75 per cent of the 39 aftershocks, are different from the axes deduced from the main shock. The post-earthquake stress field caused by the main-shock rupture, modelled as sinistral strike slip on three vertical fault segments, is computed for various orientations and magnitudes of the regional stress field, assumed to be horizontal. The aftershock distribution is best explained for a compressive stress field oriented N30°E. Most aftershocks concentrate where the Coulomb failure stress change increases by more than 0.2  MPa. The diversity of aftershock focal mechanisms, poorly explained by this model, may reflect the great diversity in the orientations of pre-existing fractures in the Agly massif.     

Political and scientific uncertainties in volcanic risk management: The yellow alert in Quito in October 1998

Volcanic risk management involves volcanologists, civil authorities and the affected population. The paper reports on one `yellow alert' in Quito in 1998. It describes the scientific context, the political announcement and the decision-making process that preceded, as well as the social perception of the volcanic crisis. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.