Forecasting the energy produced by a windmill on a yearly basis

The objective of this article is to study as extensively as possible the uncertainties affecting the annual energy produced by a windmill. In the literature, the general approach is to estimate the mean annual energy from a transformation of a Weibull distribution law. Then the issue is reduced to estimating the coefficients of this distribution. This is obtained by classical statistical methods. Therefore, the uncertainties are mostly limited to those resulting from the statistical procedures. But in fact, the real uncertainty of the random variable which represents the annual energy cannot been reduced to the uncertainty on its mean and to the uncertainties induced from the estimation procedure. We propose here a model, which takes advantage of the fact that the annual energy production is the sum of many random variables representing the 10?min energy production during the year. Under some assumptions, we make use of the central limit theorem and show that an intrinsic uncertainties of wind power, usually not considered, carries an important risk. We also explain an observation coming from practice that the forecasted annual production is always overestimated, which creates a risk of reducing the profitability of the operation.     

Out-of-plane behaviour of existing stone masonry buildings: experimental evaluation

Masonry structures can be considered as the simplest type of structures concerning its assemblage but, at the same time, it is one of the most complex construction materials in terms of mechanical properties and correct behaviour assessment. In this context, the work herein presented aims at describing an experimental testing campaign recently carried out in order to characterize the out-of-plane behaviour of traditional masonry constructions. Taking advantage of the existence of a traditional two-storey masonry building abandoned after the 1998 Azores earthquake, several in-situ tests were defined and performed with the application of quasi-static cyclic loads at the building top level in the out-of-plane direction. In addition, the efficiency of retrofitting and/or strengthening techniques applied during the 1998 Azores reconstruction process was also experimentally evaluated. Finally, an overall discussion of these techniques is presented, resorting also to previous tests’ results carried out by the same authors, aiming at inferring and suggesting quantifications of strengthening techniques’ contributions for future interventions on existing buildings. For this purpose, simple analytical mechanical approaches were adopted in order to provide numerical estimates of strength that were found in good agreement with the experimental results.     

Variability in the annual cycle of vertical particulate organic carbon export on Arctic shelves: Contrasting the Laptev Sea,Northern Baffin Bay and the Beaufort Sea

The ongoing regression of sea ice cover is expected to significantly affect the fate of organic carbon over the Arctic continental shelves. Long-term moored sediment traps were deployed in 2005–2006 in the Beaufort Sea, Northern Baffin Bay and the Laptev Sea to compare the annual variability of POC fluxes and to evaluate the factors regulating the annual cycle of carbon export over these continental shelves. Annual POC fluxes at 200 m ranged from 1.6 to 5.9 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ with the highest export in Northern Baffin Bay and the lowest export over the Mackenzie Shelf in the Beaufort Sea. Each annual cycle exhibited an increase in POC export a few weeks before, during, or immediately following sea ice melt, but showed different patterns over the remainder of the cycle. Enhanced primary production, discharge of the Lena River, and resuspension events contributed to periods of elevated POC export over the Laptev Sea slope. High POC fluxes in Northern Baffin Bay reflected periods of elevated primary production in the North Water polynya. In the Beaufort Sea sediment resuspension contributed to most of the large export events. Our results suggest that the outer shelf of the Laptev Sea will likely sustain the largest increase in POC export in the next few years due to the large reduction in ice cover and the possible increase in the Lena River discharge. The large differences in forcing among the regions investigated reinforce the importance of monitoring POC fluxes in the different oceanographic regimes that characterize the Arctic shelves to assess the response of the Arctic Ocean carbon cycle to interannual variability and climate change.     

Data reconciliation of an open channel flow network using modal decomposition

This article presents a method to estimate flow variables for an open channel network governed by the linearized Saint-Venant equations and subject to periodic forcing. The discharge at the upstream end of the system and the stage at the downstream end of the system are defined as the model inputs; the flow properties at selected internal locations, as well as the other external boundary conditions, are defined as the outputs. Both inputs and outputs are affected by noise and we use the model to improve the data quality. A spatially dependent transfer matrix in the frequency domain is constructed to relate the model input and output using modal decomposition. A data reconciliation technique is used to incorporate the error in the measured data and results in a set of reconciliated external boundary conditions; subsequently, the flow properties at any location in the system can be accurately estimated from the input measurements. The applicability and effectiveness of the method is demonstrated with a case study of the river flow subject to tidal forcing in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, in California. We used existing USGS sensors in place in the Delta as measurement points, and deployed our own sensors at selected locations to produce data used for the validation. The proposed method gives an accurate estimation of the flow properties at intermediate locations within the channel network.     

Experimental study on transient and steady‐state dynamics of bedforms in supply limited configuration

The purpose of the present study is to investigate experimentally the development of bedforms in a configuration where the sediment supply is limited. The experimental setup is a rectangular closed duct combining an innovative system to control the rate of sediment supply Q_in , and a digitizing system to measure in real time the 3D bedform topography. We carried out different sets of experiments with two sediment sizes (100 µm and 500 µm) varying both the sediment supply and the water flow rate to obtain a total of 46 different configurations. After a transient phase, steady sub‐centimeter bedforms of various shapes have been observed: barchans dunes, straight transverse dune, linguoid transverse dunes and bedload sheets. Height, spacing, migration speed, and mean bed elevation of the equilibrium bedforms were measured. For a given flow rate, two regimes were identified with fine sediment: (i) a monotonic increasing regime where the equilibrium bedform height and velocity increase with the sediment supply rate Q_in and (ii) an invariant regime for which both parameters are almost independent of Q_in. For coarse sediment, only the first regime is observed. We interpret the saturation of height and velocity for fine sediment bedforms as the transition from a supply‐limited regime to a transport‐limited regime in which the bedload flux has reached its maximum value under the prevailing flow conditions. We also demonstrate that all experiments can be rescaled if the migration speed and height of the bedforms are, respectively, divided and multiplied by the cube of the shear velocity. This normalization is independent of grain size and of bedform morphology. These experimental results provide a new quantification of the factors controlling equilibrium height and migration speed of bedforms in supply‐limited conditions against which theoretical and numerical models can be tested.     

Submesoscale vortex structures at the entrance of the Gulf of Lions in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea

The meanders of a baroclinic coastal current in the Northwestern Mediterranean Sea have already been reported in the literature. These meanders can be surrounded by vortices. Such vortices have been observed in the western part of the Gulf of Lions but the location and the mechanism of their formation are poorly documented. In this paper, we use the current measurements of a one-year experiment, which was conducted in the eastern part of the Gulf of Lions to detect and characterize the vortex activity. A vortex detection algorithm based on few velocity data was developed. Current measurements were available at the sea surface (HF radars) and in the water column from 50 to 140 m depth (four current meter moorings). SST images and hydrologic data were also used. Results focus on observations that are coherent 50 m and at the surface. Vortices are anticyclonic, of submesoscale size and present maximal velocities of 30–50 cm/s. The drift speed of the vortices is comparable to but less than the velocity of the Northern Current. These observations enable to estimate the minimum vortex occurrence in this area. The presence of vortex structures is strongly correlated with a specific sequence of wind patterns.     

Premières datations directes de défrichements protohistoriques sur les chaumes secondaires des Vosges (Rossberg,Haut-Rhin). Approche pédoanthracologique

The age of the upland grasslands of the Vosges Mountains is still not well known. On the basis of the study of historical archives, it was assumed that the forest clearings, which led to grasslands establishment, were done by the monks who colonized the Vosges valleys between the 7th and the 8th centuries. Our pedo-anthracological study raises questions about this hypothesis, based on the discovery of Juniperus communis charcoal in soils from the 2nd or 1st century BC. This plant specie is characteristic of grasslands developing into fallows. The occurrence of Juniperus communis charcoals indicates that upland grasslands did exist at least 800 years earlier than it was expected before our study, i.e. at least since the late Iron Age. To cite this article: D. Schwartz et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005).     

4D signal enhancement using singular-value decomposition: application to mapping oil–water contact movement across the Nelson Field

A new method for time‐lapse signal separation and enhancement using singular‐value decomposition is presented. Singular‐value decomposition is used to separate a 4D signal into its constituent parts: common geology, time‐lapse response and noise. Synthetic tests which demonstrate the advantages of the singular‐value decomposition technique over traditional differencing methods are also presented. This signal separation and enhancement technique is used to map out both the original and moved oil–water contacts across the Nelson Field. The singular‐value decomposition technique allows the oil–water contact to be mapped across regions which would have been missed using traditional differencing methods. In particular, areas toward the edges of the field are highlighted by the technique. The oil–water contact is observed to move upwards across the field, with the largest movements being associated, as anticipated, with natural production. The results obtained are broadly consistent with those predicted by the reservoir simulator model. Singular‐value decomposition is demonstrated to be a useful tool for enhancing the time‐lapse signal and for gaining confidence in areas where traditional differencing fails.     

Morphology and sedimentology of a complex debris flow in a clay‐shale basin

Coupling morphological, sedimentological, and rheological studies to numerical simulations is of primary interest in defining debris‐flow hazard on alluvial fans. In particular, numerical runout models must be carefully calibrated by morphological observations. This is particularly true in clay‐shale basins where hillslopes can provide a large quantity of poorly sorted solid materials to the torrent, and thus change both the mechanics of the debris flow and its runout distance. In this context, a study has been completed on the Faucon stream (southeastern French Alps), with the objectives of (1) defining morphological and sedimentological characteristics of torrential watersheds located in clay‐shales, and (2) evaluating through a case study the scouring potential of debris flows affecting a clay‐shale basin. Morphological surveys, grain‐size distributions and petrographic analyses of the debris‐flow deposits demonstrate the granular character of the flow during the first hectometre, and its muddy character from there to its terminus on the debris fan. These observations and laboratory tests suggest that the contributing areas along the channel have supplied the bulk of the flow material. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.