Laplace-transform analytic element solution of transient flow in porous media

A Laplace-transform analytic element method (LT-AEM) is described for the solution of transient flow problems in porous media. Following Laplace transformation of the original flow problem, the analytic element method (AEM) is used to solve the resultant time-independent modified Helmholtz equation, and the solution is inverted numerically back into the time domain. The solution is entirely general, retaining the mathematical elegance and computational efficiency of the AEM while being amenable to parallel computation. It is especially well suited for problems in which a solution is required at a limited number of points in space–time, and for problems involving materials with sharply contrasting hydraulic properties. We illustrate the LT-AEM on transient flow through a uniform confined aquifer with a circular inclusion of contrasting hydraulic conductivity and specific storage. Our results compare well with published analytical solutions in the special case of radial flow.     

Estimation of recent glacial variations in baspa basin using remote sensing technique

The Himalayas has one of the largest concentrations of glaciers outside the Polar Regions. Various reports suggest that significant number of mountain glaciers is shrinking due to climatic variations. Monitoring of these glaciers is important to assess future availability of water resources in the Himalayan region. However, Himalayan glaciers are normally difficult to monitor due to the rugged, mountainous terrain. Therefore, images of Indian Remote Sensing Satellite were used to monitor glaciers in the Baspa basin. Investigations have shown the presence of 30 glaciers in the basin, with areal extent of 167 km2. Out of these, 19 glaciers, with areal extent of 140 km² were selected to estimate retreat. Investigation suggests that almost all glaciers are retreating in the study basin and overall 19% deglaciation has been observed from 1962 to 2001. In general, altitude distribution appears to have significant influence on glacial retreat. Glaciers located around 5000 m altitude range are showing 24% loss as compared to 14% by glaciers located in altitude range higher than 5400 m. In addition, mean altitude of glacier terminus is shifted upward by 88 m, i.e. from 4482 to 4570 m in last 39 years. The glacial volumes were estimated using regression relationship between area and depth. The investigations have suggested that 19.10 km³ of glacial water stored in the 19 glaciers in 1962, has been reduced to 14.71 km³ in 2001, respectively, an overall loss of 23 percent in a period between 1962 and 2001. These investigations suggest that all glaciers in the Baspa Basin are reducing and in long term, such reducing trend can create scarcity of water in the region.     

Precise/ Small Sample Size Determinations of Lithium Isotopic Compositions of Geological Reference Materials and Modern Seawater by MC-ICP-MS

The Li isotope ratios of four international rock reference materials, USGS BHVO-2, GSJ JB-2, JG-2, JA-1 and modern seawater (Mediterranean, Pacific and North Atlantic) were determined using multi-collector inductively coupled plasma-mass spectrometry (MC-ICP-MS). These reference materials of natural samples were chosen to span a considerable range in Li isotope ratios and cover several different matrices in order to provide a useful benchmark for future studies. Our new analytical technique achieves significantly higher precision and reproducibility (< ± O.3%o 2s) than previous methods, with the additional advantage of requiring very low sample masses of ca . 2 ng of Li.     

Thermo-mechanical structure beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan

We investigate the thermo-mechanical properties beneath the young orogenic belt of Taiwan by constructing a shear strength profile from a vertical stratified rheological structure. The stratified rheological structure is estimated based on the recently developed thermal structure and its likely composition. Subduction–collision in the young orogenic belts and the thick accretionary wedge make a significant contribution to the growth of sialic crust in the hinterland. The sialic bulk crust not only results in a low seismic velocity but also produces weak crust in the hinterland. The earthquake depth–frequency distribution in the foreland and hinterland correlates very well with the regimes of the brittle/ductile transition revealed in the strength profile. Our results show that the observed two-layer seismicity in the foreland is due to a moderate geotherm and an intermediate mafic bulk composition; while single-layer seismicity in the hinterland is due to its felsic bulk composition. In the foreland, the mechanically strong crust (MSC) and the mechanically strong lithosphere (MSL) coincide with frequent seismicity. The shallow MSC in the hinterland is consistent with the 20- to 25-km seismicity occurring there. The total lithospheric integrated strength (LIS) in the hinterland is only about half of that in the foreland, suggesting a weak lower crust and lithosphere mantle in the hinterland. The results confirm that the earthquake cutoff depth is a proxy for temperature. The calculated decrease of effective elastic thickness (EET) from the orogenic margin (foreland) to the center (hinterland) is consistent with the results of flexure modeling in most orogenic belts. Due to the weak LIS in the hinterland, crustal thinning and rifting may occur in the future. Our results, thus, suggest that the mechanical structure is also closely related to the composition and is not directly reflected in the thermal structure.     

Nucleosynthetic zirconium isotope anomalies in acid leachates of carbonaceous chondrites

Stepwise dissolutions of the carbonaceous chondrites Orgueil (CI), Murchison (CM) and Allende (CV) reveal large nucleosynthetic anomalies for Zr isotopes that contrast with the uniform compositions found in bulk meteorites. Two complementary nucleosynthetic components are observed: one enriched and one depleted in s-process nuclides. The latter component, characterized by excess ⁹⁶Zr, is most distinctive in the acetic acid leachate (up to ε⁹⁶Zr ≈ 50). The excess decreases with increasing acid strength and the final leaching steps of the experiment are depleted in ⁹⁶Zr and thus enriched in s-process nuclides. Presolar silicon carbide grains are likely host phases for part of the anomalous Zr released during these later stages. However, by mass balance they cannot account for the ⁹⁶Zr excesses observed in the early leaching steps and this therefore hints at the presence of at least one additional carrier phase with significant amounts of anomalous Zr. The data provide evidence that average solar system material consists of a homogenized mixture of different nucleosynthetic components, which can be partly resolved by leaching experiments of carbonaceous chondrites.     

Comparison of statistically downscaled precipitation in terms of future climate indices and daily variability for southern Ontario and Quebec,Canada

Given the coarse resolution of global climate models, downscaling techniques are often needed to generate finer scale projections of variables affected by local-scale processes such as precipitation. However, classical statistical downscaling experiments for future climate rely on the time-invariance assumption as one cannot know the true change in the variable of interest, nor validate the models with data not yet observed. Our experimental setup involves using the Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) outputs as pseudo-observations to estimate model performance in the context of future climate projections by replacing historical and future observations with model simulations from the CRCM, nested within the domain of the Canadian global climate model (CGCM). In particular, we evaluated statistically downscaled daily precipitation time series in terms of the Peirce skill score, mean absolute errors, and climate indices. Specifically, we used a variety of linear and nonlinear methods such as artificial neural networks (ANN), decision trees and ensembles, multiple linear regression, and k-nearest neighbors to generate present and future daily precipitation occurrences and amounts. We obtained the predictors from the CGCM 3.1 20C3M (1971–2000) and A2 (2041–2070) simulations, and precipitation outputs from the CRCM 4.2 (forced with the CGCM 3.1 boundary conditions) as predictands. Overall, ANN models and tree ensembles outscored the linear models and simple nonlinear models in terms of precipitation occurrences, without performance deteriorating in future climate. In contrast, for the precipitation amounts and related climate indices, the performance of downscaling models deteriorated in future climate.     

Climate change hotspots mapping: what have we learned?

In the past 5 years there has been a proliferation of efforts to map climate change “hotspots” — regions that are particularly vulnerable to current or future climate impacts, and where human security may be at risk. While some are academic exercises, many are produced with the goal of drawing policy maker attention to regions that are particularly susceptible to climate impacts, either to mitigate the risk of humanitarian crises or conflicts or to target adaptation assistance. Hotspots mapping efforts address a range of issues and sectors such as vulnerable populations, humanitarian crises, conflict, agriculture and food security, and water resources. This paper offers a timely assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of current hotspots mapping approaches with the goal of improving future efforts. It also highlights regions that are anticipated, based on combinations of high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity, to suffer significant impacts from climate change.     

北京奥运会期间气溶胶光学特性垂直分布特征

利用激光雷达观测资料,分析了奥运会期间气溶胶消光系数的垂直廓线,并结合后向轨迹方法对北京地区污染来源以及污染控制措施效果进行了初步分析。观测数据表明:1)2008年消光系数较之2007年在不同高度层的降幅并不相同,600m以下的年际降幅最为显著,1200～4000m高度范围次之。2)各类型消光系数垂直廓线出现频次的统计显示,2008年影响北京的主要廓线类型为边界层上部最高型,而非近地面最高型,说明2008年近地层消光系数有明显的降低。另外,利用后向轨迹法对近地层消光系数降低的原因进行了分析,结果表明,当近地层气团中污染物主要来自于北京周边地区时,400m以下气溶胶消光系数的年际降幅可达18.1%,这说明北京周边区域大气污染控制措施对改善北京近地面层气溶胶污染起到了重要作用。