Climate change, adaptation and economic growth

This paper explores the links between economic growth and the impacts of climate change. Inclusive, pro-poor growth is central to the development of low-income countries. There is also a broad consensus that growth and development are important to reduce vulnerability to climate change. Growth does not automatically reduce vulnerability, only the right kind of growth does. The paper aims to develop a better understanding of what the ??right kind of growth?? may be. We find that many growth policies, such as investment in skills and access to finance, indeed reduce vulnerability to climate change. However, climate change calls for some adjustments in growth policy. In particular, investment in infrastructure and efforts to stimulate entrepreneurship and competitive markets must take more of a risk management perspective and recognise climate risks.     

Why does the Antarctic Peninsula Warm in climate simulations?

The Antarctic Peninsula has warmed significantly since the 1950s. This pronounced and isolated warming trend is collectively captured by 29 twentieth-century climate hindcasts participating in the version 3 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. To understand the factors driving warming trends in the hindcasts, we examine trends in Peninsula region’s atmospheric heat budget in every simulation. We find that atmospheric latent heat release increases in nearly all hindcasts. These increases are generally anthropogenic in origin, and account for about 60% of the ensemble-mean warming trend in the Peninsula. They are driven primarily by well-understood features of the anthropogenic intensification of global hydrological cycle. As sea surface temperature increases, moisture contained in atmospheric flows increases. When such flows are forced to ascend the Peninsula’s topography, enhanced local latent heat release results. The mechanism driving the warming of the Antarctic Peninsula is therefore clear in the models. Evidence for a similar mechanism operating in the real world is seen in the increasing snow accumulation rates inferred from ice cores drilled in the Peninsula. However, the relative importance of this mechanism and other processes previously identified as potentially causing the observed warming, such as the recent sea ice retreat in the Bellingshausen Sea, is difficult to assess. Thus the relevance of the simulated warming mechanism to the observed warming is unclear, in spite of its robustness in the models.     

Equilibrium H/H fractionations in organic molecules: I. Experimental calibration of ab initio calculations

Carbon-bound hydrogen in sedimentary organic matter can undergo exchange over geologic timescales, altering its isotopic composition. Studies investigating the natural abundance distribution of ¹H and ²H in such molecules must account for this exchange, which in turn requires quantitative knowledge regarding the endpoint of exchange, i.e., the equilibrium isotopic fractionation factor (α_eq). To date, relevant data have been lacking for molecules larger than methane. Here we describe an experimental method to measure α_eq for C-bound H positions adjacent to carbonyl group (H_α) in ketones. H at these positions equilibrates on a timescale of days as a result of keto-enol tautomerism, allowing equilibrium ²H/¹H distributions to be indirectly measured. Molecular vibrations for the same ketone molecules are then computed using Density Functional Theory at the B3LYP/6-311G** level and used to calculate α_eq values for H_α. Comparison of experimental and computational results for six different straight and branched ketones yields a temperature-dependent linear calibration curve with slope = 1.081−0.00376T and intercept = 8.404−0.387T, where T is temperature in degrees Celsius. Since the dominant systematic error in the calculation (omission of anharmonicity) is of the same size for ketones and C-bound H in most other linear compounds, we propose that this calibration can be applied to analogous calculations for a wide variety of organic molecules with linear carbon skeletons for temperatures below 100 °C. In a companion paper (Wang et al., 2009) we use this new calibration dataset to calculate the temperature-dependent equilibrium isotopic fractionation factors for a range of linear hydrocarbons, alcohols, ethers, ketones, esters and acids.     

Raman spectroscopy and biomarker analysis reveal multiple carbon inputs to a Precambrian glacial sediment

Extractable biomarkers can help elucidate the environment and biota of ancient glaciations, although the method must be applied with care, as glacial sediments have a potential for incorporation of older detrital carbon. In Phanerozoic glacial sediments, the distinct elemental, molecular and isotopic compositions of the terrestrial and marine biomass allow discrimination between primary marine and redeposited terrestrial organic matter. However, as the Proterozoic biosphere was largely microbial and marine, biomarker and isotopic analyses are insufficient for distinguishing primary organic matter from secondary reworked organic matter. Here, we report the combined application of Raman spectroscopy and biomarker analysis to Precambrian glacial sediments, which, together, allows discrimination between mixed pools of organic carbon and provides a promising new approach for rapidly screening Precambrian sediments for immature organic matter amenable to biomarker analysis.     

Soil erosion and sediment transport in Tanzania: Part I – sediment source tracing in three neighbouring river catchments

Water bodies in Tanzania are experiencing increased siltation, which is threatening water quality, ecosystem health, and livelihood security in the region. This phenomenon is caused by increasing rates of upstream soil erosion and downstream sediment transport. However, a lack of knowledge on the contributions from different catchment zones, land-use types, and dominant erosion processes, to the transported sediment is undermining the mitigation of soil degradation at the source of the problem. In this context, complementary sediment source tracing techniques were applied in three Tanzanian river systems to further the understanding of the complex dynamics of soil erosion and sediment transport in the region. Analysis of the geochemical and biochemical fingerprints revealed a highly complex and variable soil system that could be grouped in distinct classes. These soil classes were unmixed against riverine sediment fingerprints using the Bayesian MixSIAR model, yielding proportionate source contributions for each catchment. This sediment source tracing indicated that hillslope erosion on the open rangelands and maize croplands in the mid-zone contributed over 75% of the transported sediment load in all three river systems during the sampling time-period. By integrating geochemical and biochemical fingerprints in sediment source tracing techniques, this study demonstrated links between land use, soil erosion and downstream sediment transport in Tanzania. This evidence can guide land managers in designing targeted interventions that safeguard both soil health and water quality.     

植物挥发性有机物的初步研究

2000年1～6月期间,美国国家大气研究中心(NCAR)和中国科学院大气物理研究所的科学家发展了一套自动的气相色谱系统和分析方法,用于分析大气中的挥发性有机物.此系统性能稳定,重复性好,对美国大气研究中心附近的大气进行了采样分析.作者简单介绍了此自动系统以及采样分析结果.     

Constructing economic geographies from corporate interviews: insights from a cross-country comparison of retailer–supplier relationships

In the light of the significant role played by corporate interviews in the construction of contemporary economic geographies, this paper suggests that the practices of corporate interviewing in the research process demand critical reflection. These practices are reflected upon in the context of a comparative study of retailer–manufacturer power relations in the UK and USA. In particular, attention is paid to the ways in which corporate interviews actively construct knowledge of contrasting own-brand supply relationships in these national economies. To do this, the paper addresses the following issues: (i) the embeddedness of corporate interviews in a transforming economic geography; (ii) the processes of identifying, and gaining access to, own-brand supply networks in the UK and USA; (iii) the use of materials resulting from corporate interviews to produce nuanced understandings of own-brand supply relationships; (iv) the adoption of an appropriate textual strategy for writing such interview-based material into economic geography.     

Three-Dimensional Modeling of the Casing Effect in Onshore Controlled-Source Electromagnetic Surveys

The presence of steel-cased wells and other infrastructure causes a significant change in the electromagnetic fields that has to be taken into consideration in modeling and interpretation of field data. A realistic and accurate simulation requires the borehole casing to be incorporated into the modeling scheme, which is numerically challenging. Due to the huge conductivity contrast between the casing and surrounding media, a spatial discretization that provides accurate results at different spatial scales ranging from millimeters to hundreds of meters is required. In this paper, we present a full 3D frequency-domain electromagnetic modeling based on a parallel finite-difference algorithm considering the casing effect and investigate its applicability on the borehole-to-surface configuration of the Hontomín CO₂ storage site. To guarantee a robust solution of linear systems with highly ill-conditioned matrices caused by huge conductivity contrasts and multiple spatial scales in the model, we employ direct sparse solvers. Different scenarios are simulated in order to study the influence of the source position, conductivity model, and the effect of the steel casing on the measured data. Several approximations of the real hollow casing that allow for a large reduction in the number of elements in the resulting meshes are studied. A good agreement between the modeled responses and the real field data demonstrates the feasibility of simulating casing effects in complex geological areas. The steel casing of the well greatly increases the amplitude of the surface electromagnetic fields and thus improves the signal-to-noise ratio and the sensitivity to deep targets.     

Declustering experimental variograms by global estimation with fourth order moments

The variogram is a key parameter for geostatistical estimation and simulation. Preferential sampling may bias the spatial structure and often leads to noisy and unreliable variograms. A novel technique is proposed to weight variogram pairs in order to compensate for preferential or clustered sampling . Weighting the variogram pairs by global kriging of the quadratic differences between the tail and head values gives each pair the appropriate weight, removes noise and minimizes artifacts in the experimental variogram. Moreover, variogram uncertainty could be computed by this technique. The required covariance between the pairs going into variogram calculation, is a fourth order covariance that must be calculated by second order moments. This introduces some circularity in the calculation whereby an initial variogram must be assumed before calculating how the pairs should be weighted for the experimental variogram. The methodology is assessed by synthetic and realistic examples. For synthetic example, a comparison between the traditional and declustered variograms shows that the declustered variograms are better estimates of the true underlying variograms. The realistic example also shows that the declustered sample variogram is closer to the true variogram.