Resilience and brittleness in the ALERTA RIO system: a field study about the decision-making of forecasters

Natural disasters, particularly those triggered by heavy rainfall, may cause major damage and death. However, if an accurate early warning is issued, the damage can be mitigated. In Latin America and Brazil, characteristics of socioeconomic development often lead to a disorderly growth of cities and, consequently, occupation and irregular construction in risk areas. Therefore, forecasts of heavy rainfall, as well as preventative and mitigatory actions based on meteorological data/alerts, are essential to saving lives and minimizing material loss. An event that would have benefited from such actions is that which occurred in the mountainous region of Rio de Janeiro in January 2011, when over 800 people lost their lives. This work describes the first research initiative on resilience engineering domain in systems to forecast heavy rains in Rio de Janeiro. The results indicate important sources of brittleness in the system that supports the work of meteorologists, mainly related to the technical and organizational framework, and suggests that the main source of resilience in dealing with critical situations is the tacit knowledge of experts.     

Hydrogen emissions from Erebus volcano, Antarctica

The continuous measurement of molecular hydrogen (H₂) emissions from passively degassing volcanoes has recently been made possible using a new generation of low-cost electrochemical sensors. We have used such sensors to measure H₂, along with SO₂, H₂O and CO₂, in the gas and aerosol plume emitted from the phonolite lava lake at Erebus volcano, Antarctica. The measurements were made at the crater rim between December 2010 and January 2011. Combined with measurements of the long-term SO₂ emission rate for Erebus, they indicate a characteristic H₂ flux of 0.03?kg s^–1 (2.8?Mg? day^–1). The observed H₂ content in the plume is consistent with previous estimates of redox conditions in the lava lake inferred from mineral compositions and the observed CO₂/CO ratio in the gas plume (～0.9 log units below the quartz–fayalite–magnetite buffer). These measurements suggest that H₂ does not combust at the surface of the lake, and that H₂ is kinetically inert in the gas/aerosol plume, retaining the signature of the high-temperature chemical equilibrium reached in the lava lake. We also observe a cyclical variation in the H₂/SO₂ ratio with a period of ～10?min. These cycles correspond to oscillatory patterns of surface motion of the lava lake that have been interpreted as signs of a pulsatory magma supply at the top of the magmatic conduit.     

A conceptual hydrogeological model of ophiolitic aquifers (serpentinised peridotite): The test example of Mt. Prinzera (Northern Italy)

The main aim of this study is the experimental analysis of the hydrogeological behaviour of the Mt. Prinzera ultramafic massif in the northern Apennines, Italy. The analysed multidisciplinary database has been acquired through (a) geologic and structural survey; (b) geomorphologic survey; (c) hydrogeological monitoring; (d) physico‐chemical analyses; and (e) isotopic analyses. The ultramafic medium is made of several lithological units, tectonically overlapped. Between them, a low‐permeability, discontinuous unit has been identified. This unit behaves as an aquitard and causes a perched groundwater to temporary flow within the upper medium, close to the surface. This perched groundwater flows out along several structurally controlled depressions, and then several high‐altitude temporary springs can be observed during recharge, together with several perennial basal (i.e., low altitude) springs, caused by the compartmentalisation of the system because of high‐angle tectonic discontinuities.     

Biosedimentary record of postglacial coastal dynamics: high‐resolution sequence stratigraphy from the northern Tuscan coast (Italy)

Integrating analysis of the benthic palaeoecological record with multivariate ordination techniques represents a powerful synergy able to provide an improved characterization of coastal depositional facies in a sequence stratigraphical perspective. Through quantitative analysis of benthic foraminifer, ostracod and mollusc associations from the postglacial succession of Core M3 (Arno coastal plain, Tuscany, Italy), and application of detrended correspondence analysis (DCA) to the mollusc sub‐data set, we offer a refined picture of stratigraphical variations in faunal content from a paralic depositional setting, and reconstruct the palaeoenvironmental gradients that account for such variations. Despite distinct ecological behaviours, and taphonomic and sedimentological constraints, a strong ecological control on meio‐ and macrofaunal biofacies and taxa turnover is documented across the study succession. Amongst all possible mechanisms that may play a role in ‘shaping’ fossil distribution, the ecological signal driven by salinity represents the most prominent factor controlling the composition of fossil associations in the cored succession. Molluscs can even provide outstanding quantitative estimates of palaeosalinity along the sampled core. When plotted stratigraphically, the three fossil sub‐data sets show consistent patterns of vertical evolution that enable prompt identification of the key surfaces for sequence stratigraphical interpretation in otherwise lithologically indistinguishable deposits. The concomitant maximum richness of species with strong marine affinity, paralleled by the highest DCA salinity estimates, allows recognition of the maximum flooding zone, dated to ～7.7 cal. ka BP, within a homogeneous succession of outer lagoon clays. These clays are sandwiched between early transgressive, swamp to inner lagoon deposits and overlying prograding coastal?alluvial plain facies.     

'Sediment'–cement relationships in a Pleistocene speleothem from Italy: a possible analogue for 'replacement' cements and Archaeolithoporella in ancient reefs

Ancient carbonate buildups may contain extraordinarily large amounts of early diagenetic precipitates. In some, host rock lamination may be traced into inclusion bands within the 'cement' crystals, suggesting that the crystals are replacive. By analogy with a Pleistocene speleothem from the Sorrento Peninsula, however, these relationships can be explained differently. In the speleothem, large, repeatedly split and dendritic calcite crystals occur within a laminated carbonate. Lamination consists of sub-mm alternations of micrite and microspar. Micritic laminae pass laterally into inclusion-rich growth bands in the dendritic calcite crystals, and have replaced an aragonitic cement, whereas the microspar laminae were primary calcite cements. Three types of inclusion-rich bands occur in the dendrite crystals: (1) with aragonite relicts, (2) 'ribbon calcite' and (3) with oriented micropores. When aragonite precipitated, the calcite dendrite branches were unable to keep growing as single crystals and split into crystallites (separated by micropores, some forming ribbon calcite), whereas during episodes of calcite lamina precipitation, the larger crystals were regenerated by crystallite coalescence. Calcite crystals are primary: they did not replace a micritic precursor. By analogy with the Italian speleothem, some ancient reefal sparry carbonates may not be replacements of earlier laminated sediments, but may have grown concurrently with them. It is also probable that some ancient laminated sediments were instead sea-floor precipitates, and that stromatolites containing cross-cutting crystal fabrics, and the alternating micrite-microspar laminae typical of Archaeolithoporella , could be largely abiotic crystal growths.     

Quality assessment of the Italian Landslide Inventory using GIS processing

Landslides constitute one of the most important natural hazards in Italy as they are widespread and result in considerable damage and fatalities every year. The Italian Landslide Inventory (IFFI) Project was launched in 1999 with the aim of identifying and mapping landslides over the entire Italian territory. The inventory currently holds over 480,000 landslides and has been available by means of Web services since 2005. The aim of this study is to define quality indices for evaluation of the homogeneity and completeness of the IFFI database. In order to estimate the completeness of the landslide attribute information, a heuristic approach has been used to assign weighting values to significant parameters selected from the landslide data sheet. The completeness and homogeneity of the landslide mapping has been evaluated by means of three different methods: an area-frequency distribution analysis; the proximity of the landslides surveyed to urban areas; variation of the landslide index within the same lithology. The quality indices have allowed identification of areas with a high level of completeness and critical areas in which the data collected have been underestimated or are not very accurate. The quality assessment of collected and stored data is essential in order to use the IFFI database for definition and implementation of landslide susceptibility models and for land use planning and management.     

Major changes in volcano behaviour after a sector collapse: insights from Stromboli, Italy

In recent years, increasing numbers of volcanoes are being recognized as having undergone large sector collapses. How far such events can change the succeeding behaviour of the volcano is poorly known, despite the importance for natural hazards and economic applications. By analysing the last 100‐kyr geological history of Stromboli (Italy), which has involved multiple collapses, this paper illuminates the feedback effect between sector collapse and magma upwelling and emplacement. The collapsed zone of Stromboli is episodically unbuttressed, draining magma preferentially with formation of eruptive centres in the collapse amphitheatre and dyking along the collapse shoulders. After a collapse, there were no further linear eruptions across the cone on opposing middle–lower slopes, but these occurred again after rebuilding of the cone. The time‐averaged eruption rate increased immediately before the first collapse and remained higher during the succeeding period of frequent collapses.     

Lithospheric flexure, uplift and expected horizontal strain rate in the Pannonian Carpathian region

The Apuseni Mountains are located between the Pannonian Basin and the Transylvanian Basin along a direction of SE convergence with the Carpathian belt. A flexural model based on the cylindrical bending of a semi-infinite, isostatically supported, thin elastic plate is here examined with the Apuseni playing the role of flexural bulge, and under the assumption that the plate is deforming under the action of a vertical shear force and a bending moment applied at the end of the plate, beneath the Carpathians. The model yields estimates of the plate thickness ranging between 13 and 14.5 km, depending on the assumed density contrast between crust/sediments and mantle providing buoyancy. The vertical shear force which is necessary to bend the plate is in the range between 60 and 300 × 10¹¹ N m^− 1, depending on the assumed density contrast. This force is shown to be modelled by a gravitational ‘slab pull’ force, using model parameters derived from seismic tomography. If the height of the flexural bulge, after correction for erosion, is allowed to increase, the model yields an estimate of the horizontal strain rate at the top of the bulge. For example, 5 mm/yr vertical change of the flexural bulge of a 14 km thick plate results in a horizontal deformation rate of approximately 7 nanostrain/yr at the top of the bulge, a value which is at the threshold of sensitivity of continuous GPS measurements. Different vertical rates will change the horizontal strain rate almost proportionally.     

Physical properties and petrologic description of rock samples from an IOCG mineralized area in the northern Fennoscandian Shield, Sweden

The Tjårrojåkka Fe–Cu-prospect in northern Sweden is considered an example of a Fe-oxide Cu–Au (IOCG) deposit and is hosted in metamorphosed Paleoproterozoic volcanic and intrusive rocks. Rock samples from 24 outcrops were collected for petrophysical analysis (magnetic susceptibility, remanent magnetization, variation of magnetic susceptibility with temperature, Curie temperature and density). The major Cu-prospect in the area has been studied by magnetic and electron microprobe analyses of four selected rock samples. The samples are from an exploration well that intersects the main Cu-mineralized body.The magnetic analyses show that magnetite is the dominant magnetic mineral, while hematite and other Fe-minerals are present in minor amounts. The electron microprobe observations confirm the presence of magnetite and further indicate that hematite is an alteration product of magnetite. Moreover, microprobe observations indicate that Fe-sulfides are present in negligible amounts in the samples from the Tjårrojåkka area. The strong spatial relationship of Cu-minerals (e.g., chalcopyrite) and the oxidation of magnetite to hematite suggest that the presence of rocks with low magnetic susceptibility in areas dominated by high susceptibility rocks may be a signal of related Cu-prospects.