Measuring persistence in time series of temperature anomalies

Studies on persistence are important for the clarification of statistical properties of the analyzed time series and for understanding the dynamics of the systems which create these series. In climatology, the analysis of the autocorrelation function has been the main tool to investigate the persistence of a time series. In this paper, we propose to use a more sophisticated econometric instrument. Using this tool, we obtain an estimate of the persistence in global land and ocean and hemispheric temperature time series.     

The Ferrara hard X-ray facility for testing/calibrating hard X-ray focusing telescopes

We will report on the current configuration of the X-ray facility of the University of Ferrara recently used to perform reflectivity tests of mosaic crystals and to calibrate the experiment JEM–X aboard Integral. The facility is now located in the technological campus of the University of Ferrara in a new building (named LARIX laboratory= ̳LARge ̳Italian ̳X-ray facility) that includes a tunnel 100 m long with, on the sides, two large experimental rooms. The facility is being improved for determining the optical axis of mosaic crystals in Laue configuration, for calibrating Laue lenses and hard X-ray mirror prototypes.     

POLARIX: a pathfinder mission of X-ray polarimetry

Since the birth of X-ray astronomy, spectral, spatial and timing observation improved dramatically, procuring a wealth of information on the majority of the classes of the celestial sources. Polarimetry, instead, remained basically unprobed. X-ray polarimetry promises to provide additional information procuring two new observable quantities, the degree and the angle of polarization. Polarization from celestial X-ray sources may derive from emission mechanisms themselves such as cyclotron, synchrotron and non-thermal bremsstrahlung, from scattering in aspheric accreting plasmas, such as disks, blobs and columns and from the presence of extreme magnetic field by means of vacuum polarization and birefringence. Matter in strong gravity fields and Quantum Gravity effects can be studied by X-ray polarimetry, too. POLARIX is a mission dedicated to X-ray polarimetry. It exploits the polarimetric response of a Gas Pixel Detector, combined with position sensitivity, that, at the focus of a telescope, results in a huge increase of sensitivity. The heart of the detector is an Application-Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) chip with 105,600 pixels each one containing a full complete electronic chain to image the track produced by the photoelectron. Three Gas Pixel Detectors are coupled with three X-ray optics which are the heritage of JET-X mission. A filter wheel hosting calibration sources unpolarized and polarized is dedicated to each detector for periodic on-ground and in-flight calibration. POLARIX will measure time resolved X-ray polarization with an angular resolution of about 20 arcsec in a field of view of 15 × 15 arcmin and with an energy resolution of 20% at 6 keV. The Minimum Detectable Polarization is 12% for a source having a flux of 1 mCrab and 10⁵ s of observing time. The satellite will be placed in an equatorial orbit of 505 km of altitude by a Vega launcher. The telemetry down-link station will be Malindi. The pointing of POLARIX satellite will be gyroless and it will perform a double pointing during the earth occultation of one source, so maximizing the scientific return. POLARIX data are for 75% open to the community while 25% + SVP (Science Verification Phase, 1 month of operation) is dedicated to a core program activity open to the contribution of associated scientists. The planned duration of the mission is one year plus three months of commissioning and SVP, suitable to perform most of the basic science within the reach of this instrument. A nice to have idea is to use the same existing mandrels to build two additional telescopes of iridium with carbon coating plus two more detectors. The effective area in this case would be almost doubled.     

A multi-hazard regional level impact assessment for Europe combining indicators of climatic and non-climatic change

To better prioritise adaptation strategies to a changing climate that are currently being developed, there is a need for quantitative regional level assessments that are systematic and comparable across multiple weather hazards. This study presents an indicator-based impact assessment framework at NUTS-2 level for the European Union that quantifies potential regional changes in weather-related hazards: heat stress in relation to human health, river flood risk, and forest fire risk. This is done by comparing the current (baseline) situation with two future time periods, 2011–2040 and 2041–2070. The indicator values for the baseline period are validated against observed impact data. For each hazard, the method integrates outcomes of a set of coherent high-resolution regional climate models from the ENSEMBLES project based on the SRES A1B emission scenario, with current and projected non-climatic drivers of risk, such as land use and socio-economic change. An index of regional adaptive capacity has been developed and compared with overall hazard impact in order to identify the potentially most vulnerable regions in Europe. The results show strongest increases in impacts for heat stress, followed by forest fire risk, while for flood risk the sign and magnitude of change vary across regions. A major difference with previous studies is that heat stress risk could increase most in central Europe, which is due to the ageing population there. An overall assessment combining the three hazards shows a clear trend towards increasing impact from climaterelated natural hazards for most parts of Europe, but hotspot regions are found in eastern and southern Europe due to their low adaptive capacities. This spatially explicit assessment can serve as a basis for discussing climate adaptation mainstreaming, and priorities for regional development in the EU.     

'Sediment'–cement relationships in a Pleistocene speleothem from Italy: a possible analogue for 'replacement' cements and Archaeolithoporella in ancient reefs

Ancient carbonate buildups may contain extraordinarily large amounts of early diagenetic precipitates. In some, host rock lamination may be traced into inclusion bands within the 'cement' crystals, suggesting that the crystals are replacive. By analogy with a Pleistocene speleothem from the Sorrento Peninsula, however, these relationships can be explained differently. In the speleothem, large, repeatedly split and dendritic calcite crystals occur within a laminated carbonate. Lamination consists of sub-mm alternations of micrite and microspar. Micritic laminae pass laterally into inclusion-rich growth bands in the dendritic calcite crystals, and have replaced an aragonitic cement, whereas the microspar laminae were primary calcite cements. Three types of inclusion-rich bands occur in the dendrite crystals: (1) with aragonite relicts, (2) 'ribbon calcite' and (3) with oriented micropores. When aragonite precipitated, the calcite dendrite branches were unable to keep growing as single crystals and split into crystallites (separated by micropores, some forming ribbon calcite), whereas during episodes of calcite lamina precipitation, the larger crystals were regenerated by crystallite coalescence. Calcite crystals are primary: they did not replace a micritic precursor. By analogy with the Italian speleothem, some ancient reefal sparry carbonates may not be replacements of earlier laminated sediments, but may have grown concurrently with them. It is also probable that some ancient laminated sediments were instead sea-floor precipitates, and that stromatolites containing cross-cutting crystal fabrics, and the alternating micrite-microspar laminae typical of Archaeolithoporella , could be largely abiotic crystal growths.     

Paleomagnetic dating of the most recent silicic eruptive activity at Pantelleria (Strait of Sicily)

We report on the paleomagnetism of ten sites in the products of the most recent silicic eruptive cycle of Pantelleria, Strait of Sicily. Previously radiometrically dated at 5–10 ka, our comparison with proxies for geomagnetic field directions allows us to narrow considerably the time window during which these eruptions occurred. The strongly peralkaline composition causes the magmas to have low viscosities, locally resulting in strong agglutination of proximal fall deposits. This allows successful extraction of paleomagnetic directions from the explosive phases of eruptions. One of our sites was located in the Serra della Fastuca fall deposit, produced by the first explosive event of the eruptive cycle. The other nine sites were located in the most recent explosive (pumice fall and agglutinate from Cuddia del Gallo and Cuddia Randazzo) and effusive (Khaggiar lava) products. The (very similar) paleomagnetic directions gathered from eight internally consistent sites were compared to reference geomagnetic field directions of the last 5–10 ka. Directions from Cuddia del Gallo agglutinate and Khaggiar flows translate into 5.9- to 6.2-ka ages, whereas the Fastuca pumices yield a slightly older age of 6.2–6.8 ka. Hence, the most recent silicic eruptive cycle lasted at most a millennium and as little as a few centuries around 6.0 ka. Paleomagnetically inferred ages are in good agreement with published (and calibrated by us) ¹⁴C dates from paleosols/charcoals sampled below the studied volcanic units, whereas K/Ar data are more scattered and yield ∼30% older ages. Our data show that the time elapsed since the most recent silicic eruptions at Pantelleria is comparable to the quiescence period separating the two latest volcanic cycles.     

Glaucony from the Cretaceous of the Sierra de Guadarrama (Central Spain) and its application in a sequence-stratigraphic context

Detailed sedimentological and geochemical analyses of Upper Cretaceous glaucony-bearing deposits from the middle portion of the Castro de Fuentidueña Formation, in Central Spain, enable identification of a multiphase history of glaucony accumulation. Despite its relatively high maturity (K₂O > 7%), glaucony from the transgressive subtidal sandstones has anomalously low concentration in the host rock (generally <10%), suggesting remobilization from a different source. The remarkable thickness of the glaucony-bearing horizons, concurrently with concentration of glaucony in laminae, small size, and high degree of roundness and sorting provide further evidence for an allochthonous origin of the green grains. In contrast, authigenic glaucony from the overlying offshore clays exhibits higher abundance (up to 45%) and lower maturity (K₂O < 7%) and is interpreted to have formed in situ. Allochthonous glaucony originally developed in more distal areas during a prolonged period of sediment starvation. The green grains were then swept away from their place of origin and concentrated into tidal bars and channels within the upper transgressive systems tract of the third-order depositional sequence. Maximum concentration of autochthonous glaucony is recorded at the transition from tidal-influenced to offshore deposits: this glaucony, which is relatively less evolved due to lower time available for maturation, is interpreted to reflect the turnaround from transgressive to highstand conditions, marking the condensed section of the depositional sequence. As postulated by previous sequence-stratigraphic models, this study documents that allochthonous glaucony can be widespread throughout the transgressive systems tract (TST), while the condensed section (CS) typically hosts autochthonous glaucony. Contrary to the existing literature, however, this study shows that glaucony from the TST may be even more mature than glaucony from the CS, if enough time for maturation during transgression is allowed before the ultimate concentration of the green grains. Identification of spatial and temporal characteristics of glaucony, thus, is critical to a reliable sequence-stratigraphic interpretation of the glaucony-bearing deposits.     

Linear and angular momentum conservation in hydraulic jump in diverging channels

This paper addresses the integral conservation of linear and angular momentum in the steady hydraulic jump in a linearly diverging channel.The flow is considered to be divided into a mainstream that conveys the total liquid discharge, and a roller where no average mass transport occurs. It is assumed that no macroscopic rheological relationship holds, so mass, momentum and angular momentum integral balances are independent relationships. Normal stresses are assumed to be hydrostatic on vertical, cylindrical surfaces. Viscous stresses are assumed to be negligible with respect to turbulent stresses. Assuming that the horizontal velocity distribution in the mainstream is uniform and that the horizontal momentum and angular momentum in the roller are negligible with respect to their mainstream counterparts, an analytical solution is obtained for the free surface profile of the flow. This solution is fundamental for finding the sequent depths and their positions. Consequently, it permits solving for the length of the jump, which is assumed to be equal to the length of the roller. Mainstream and roller thicknesses can also be derived from the present solution. This model may also be theoretically used to derive the average shear stresses exerted by the roller on the mainstream and the power losses per unit weight. This second relationship, which returns the well-known classical expression for total power loss in the jump, demonstrates that the strongly idealized mechanical model proposed here is internally consistent.