Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city,Novi Sad (Serbia)

Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.     

An analysis of naturally occurring radionuclides and <Superscript>137</Superscript>Cs in the soils of urban areas using gamma-ray spectrometry

This study of environmental radioactivity was carried out in the soils of an urban area. Naturally occurring gamma-emitting radionuclides and man-made ¹³⁷Cs were found in the soil profiles collected from four parks in the central Belgrade city area and the soil layer was examined every 10 cm and to a depth of 50 cm. Radioisotope activity concentrations (Bq kg^?1) in the samples of urban soil using the gamma-ray spectrometry method were in the range of 14–46 for ²³⁸U, 33–50 for ²²⁶Ra, 29–63 for ²¹⁰Pb, 1.2–3.4 for ²³⁵U, 28–50 for ²³²Th, 424–576 for ⁴⁰K and 0.7–35.8 for ¹³⁷Cs. Some of the basic physicochemical soil properties (pH, organic matter content, calcium-carbonate content, particle size distribution) were determined to investigate the impact on the vertical distribution of radionuclides. The results of this investigation showed that variations of activity concentration ratios of radionuclides that belong to the same (²³⁸U/²²⁶Ra) or different radioactive series (²³²Th/²²⁶Ra; ²³⁵U/²³⁸U), including ²¹⁰Pb/¹³⁷Cs ratios could well be explained by the properties of the soil. Alkaline pH reaction, the accumulation of organic matter in the uppermost and of carbonates in the deepest layers of urban soil had an effect on ²³⁸U/²²⁶Ra, and ²¹⁰Pb/¹³⁷Cs activity concentration ratio values, while ²³²Th/²²⁶Ra and partially ²³⁵U/²³⁸U ratios were associated with the particle sizes vertical distribution. A study of radionuclides in the samples of leaves of two deciduous tree species common for these parks was also conducted and ²¹⁰Pb and ⁴⁰K were found concentrated in leaves rather than other investigated radionuclides.     

Loop Quantum Cosmology and Probability of Inflation

We study the measure on the set of initial conditions in remote past for Loop Quantum Cosmology with massive scalar field motivated by various choices of the measure present in the literature. The main finding of the paper is existence of an attractor at contracting phase of the universe, which, in addition to the well known attractor at expanding phase, predicts a very specific duration of inflationary stage with the number of e-foldings about 140.     

Geochemical and stable isotopic variability within two rivers rising under the same mountain,but belonging to two distant watersheds

Complementary geochemical and stable isotope investigations of the Gorski Kotar karst aquifer system in western Croatia were obtained for the first time, to answer the question whether both studied rivers drain the same aquifer system or not. The two main rivers, the Kupa and the Rje?ina, rise under the same mountain range, but belong to two different watersheds (Black Sea and Adriatic Sea). The karst aquifer of Gorski Kotar is a potentially important source of drinking water for two neighboring countries, Croatia and Slovenia (Central and South Europe), and is strongly influenced by both Mediterranean and continental weather conditions. It is a part of the Dinaric karst, which is “locus typicus” for karst worldwide and one of the most typical karst areas in the world.     

Magnetic,geochemical and mineralogical properties of sediments from karstic and flysch rivers of Croatia and Slovenia

The aim of the present work was to investigate links between the low-field magnetic susceptibility (MS) and chemical and mineral composition of sediments from several Croatian and Slovenian rivers, as well as to determine possible anthropogenic influence on these sediments. MS measurements are a fast and simple method, which serves as a proxy for the estimation of pollution in different environmental systems. The investigated rivers are predominantly unpolluted rivers from Croatian and Slovenian karstic and flysch areas, which belong to the Adriatic or the Black Sea watersheds: the Dragonja, the Mirna, the Ra?a, the Ri?ana, the Reka, the Rak, the Cerkni?nica, the Unec and the Ljubljanica rivers. It was assumed that, due to their mostly unpolluted status, they could serve as a database for natural MS background values for this region. For comparison, several rivers and a lake from the Celje old metallurgic industrial area (Slovenia) were also investigated: the Savinja, the Hudinja, the Voglajna rivers and Slivni?ko Lake. They form a sub-basin of the Sava River drainage basin. Sediments of the clean karstic and flysch rivers showed extremely low MS values, with mass susceptibility values ranging from 0.58 × 10^?7 to 5.11 × 10^?7 m³/kg, and isothermal remanent magnetism (IRM) values ranging from 0.71 to 7.88 A/m. In the Celje industrial area, river sediments showed much higher MS values, with mass susceptibility values ranging from 1.31 × 10^?7 to 38.3 × 10^?7 m³/kg, and IRM values ranging from 0.91 to 100.42 A/m. The highest MS value was found in the Voglajna River at Teharje-?tore, a point which showed a significant number of anomalies of toxic metals in earlier investigations. Semiquantitative determination of relations between grain size and concentration of magnetite was performed using the Thompson-Oldfield method. X-ray diffraction (XRD) mineralogical analysis showed that sediments of the Celje area have mostly quartz as major mineral, with relatively small amount of carbonate minerals, while in sediments of karstic rivers carbonate minerals prevail. Statistically significant correlations were obtained between MS and Cr, Mn, Fe, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Ba in the Slovenian karstic region and between MS and Cr, Fe, Co, Ni and Zn in flysch drainage basins. On the contrary, no correlation of MS and Hg content was obtained.     

Low permeability Neogene lithofacies in Northern Croatia as potential unconventional hydrocarbon reservoirs

We present two examples of describing low permeability Neogene clastic lithofacies to outline unconventional hydrocarbon lithofacies. Both examples were selected from the Drava Depression, the largest macrostructure of the Pannonian Basin System located in Croatia. The first example is the Beni?anci Field, the largest Croatian hydrocarbon reservoir discovered in Badenian coarse-grained clastics that consists mostly of breccia. The definition of low permeability lithofacies is related to the margins of the existing reservoir, where the reservoir lithology changed into a transitional one, which is mainly depicted by the marlitic sandstones. However, calculation of the POS (probability of success of new hydrocarbons) shows critical geological categories where probabilities are lower than those in the viable reservoir with proven reserves. Potential new hydrocarbon volumes are located in the structural margins, along the oil-water contact, with a POS of 9.375%. These potential reserves in those areas can be classified as probable. A second example was the Cremu?ina Structure, where a hydrocarbon reservoir was not proven, but where the entire structure has been transferred onto regional migration pathways. The Lower Pontian lithology is described from well logs as fine-grained sandstones with large sections of silty or marly clastics. As a result, the average porosity is low for conventional reservoir classification (10.57%). However, it is still an interesting case for consideration as a potentially unconventional reservoir, such as the ”tight” sandstones.     

Cold and warm air temperature spells during the winter and summer seasons and their impact on energy consumption in urban areas

The main objective of this study is to determine and analyze cold and warm air temperature spells in the last 6 years (2007–2012) and reveal their impact on electrical energy consumption in a small-sized city such as Sombor (Serbia) with less than 50,000 inhabitants. Hourly air temperature values and electrical energy consumption data have been used as database for all methods. Warm and cold temperature spells (during heat and cold waves) have had the increasing tendencies in the last 6 years and they reflect on additional electrical energy consumption. Detailed analysis showed that higher energy demands occur during workdays and daytime period. Monitoring of the amount of consumed energy showed a clear relationship during the winter cold temperature spells, when electrical energy demand was higher than 0.3 MW. In summer period, the relationship was weaker and consumption was higher than 0.15 MW only when temperature exceeded 30 °C. A small number of air condition devices in houses and companies and mainly one-store buildings with thick walls, which make a good insulation from the outside air temperatures, are probably the main reasons for the above-mentioned results in summer. This paper introduces a new method to resolve the problem of short-term load forecasting, based on the support vector machines (SVM) technology and particle swarm optimization that has been used to optimize the SVM parameters. Similar-day-based forecast has shown that similar days for training should be filtered also using classifier of temperature period (cooling degree-days or heating degree-days in a row). Forecasting error is smaller compared to solutions where similar days are found only on season and temperature.     

A Small Pore Observed with a 1.6 m Telescope

A small pore was observed with the New Solar Telescope of 1.6 m aperture at Big Bear Solar Observatory. At a wavelength of 705.68 nm, a diffraction limit of 0.09″ was reached and approximately 700 small structures were analyzed. The achieved high resolution has revealed details about the dynamics of small structures in and around the pore. The small structures either reside in the pore, enter the pore from the vicinity, or dip in and out of the pore. Their sizes are similar, ≈?0.2″, but their observed oscillations do not show power peaks at the same periods. Horizontal plasma flows were suppressed in the pore by 38 % for average velocities, and 65 % for maximum velocities, compared to the quiet Sun.     

The origin of mineral waters in Kiseljak near Sarajevo,Bosnia and Herzegovina

The mineral water deposits in Kiseljak are located in the central Dinarids, Bosnia and Herzegovina, in the southwestern edge of Sarajevo–Zenica basin that was formed in the zone of Busova?a fault. Busova?a fault reaches deep into the Earth’s crust and is characterised by the presence of mineral and thermomineral water enriched with CO₂ and CO₂ springs (mofetes) in the direction of Ilid?a–Kiseljak–Busova?a. Deposits are constructed of layers of Palaeozoic to Cretaceous age. Primary aquifer of mineral waters is Permian clastites and evaporites and secondary Anisian carbonates. Mineral water and CO₂ are of different origin. The water is of atmospheric origin. Due to slow circulation, water descends in the primary aquifer where it becomes enriched with CO₂ and minerals. Due to high pressure in the primary aquifer mineral water ascends along Busova?a fault, mounts into the secondary aquifer and rises at spring sources. Water is a mixture of two or more waters of different mineralization. Mixing of water occurs in the zone of secondary aquifer even at greater depths without the influence of contemporary climatic factors. Intensive water mixing is indicated by the high ratio of Ca/Sr, Na/Cl and Ca/SO₄ and the mixing diagram. CO₂ is thermometamorphic, arising from the catalytic activity of SiO₂ on carbonates in the deeper layers of the Earth’s crust, where quartz porphyry broke through Palaeozoic formations.     

Occurrence of Sn-Bearing colusite in the ore-body “T” of the Bor copper deposit, Serbia

The ore body “T” is the newly discovered massive-pyrite type one which is located in the central part of the Bor copper mine. The main copper minerals are chalcocite-digenite, covellite and enargite. Small amounts of colusite are frequently present in the ore-body. It mostly occurs as the distinct exsolutions in digenite and, associating with enargite and covellite. Composition of the studied colusite shows enriched Sn content, giving an empirical formula from Cu_24.7V_1.8Fe_0.2As_5.1Sb_0.2Sn_0.8S₃₂ to Cu_26.7V_2.0Fe_0.3A_s3.0Sb_0.3Sn_3.5S₃₂. This colusite represents a solid solution between colusite and nekrasovite within a range of 14–54 mol % nekrasovite. Most of the analyses show content of <50 mol % nekrasovite corresponding to the Sn-bearing colusite variety, while one analysis shows content of 54 mol % nekrasovite corresponding to the As-bearing nekrasovite.