Heat wave risk assessment and mapping in urban areas: case study for a midsized Central European city,Novi Sad (Serbia)

Risk assessment and mapping methodologies for heat waves as frequently occurring hazards in central and southeastern Europe were applied in this study, and the impact of heat waves on the mortality of urban populations was determined as part of the assessment. The methodology for conducting the heat wave risk assessment is based on European Commission’s Guidelines for Risk Assessment and Mapping. The Novi Sad (Serbia) urban area was studied during summer 2015, which was one of the hottest summers in the last few decades. In situ air temperature measurements from urban stations and mortality of urban populations were used. Nocturnal urban heat island (UHI) intensity values between the various built-up zones and natural surrounding areas were used for the hazard level calculation. Temperature data from 9 p.m. to 5 a.m. were used because during the night, the UHI intensity reached its maximum values. The average daily number of deaths by LCZs was used to define the impact level of the vulnerability index. Calculations for both hazard levels were completed during two intensive heat waves (in July and August 2015) when it was expected that there may be a high level of risk. The results and maps show that the urban area is complex, and the heat wave risk on the population is not uniform. The most densely built-up areas (LCZs 2, 5 and 6) have very high or high risk values that are influenced by a higher rate of mortality. The obtained results and maps can be used by local authorities to prevent and mitigate climate-related hazards, for medical institutions as well as urban planners and for ancillary local, regional or national services. According to these results, the local authorities could define hot spots where they can place medical and rescue teams and install points with water supplies, etc.     

Draconids 2011: Outburst Observations by the Croatian Meteor Network

The predicted Draconid meteor shower outburst during October 2011 had been observed by a portion of the Croatian Meteor Network whose stations encountered clear weather. A total of 95 Draconid orbits have been calculated from 18 contributing stations, and in this paper we present results for 63 orbits obtained from the fully automatic observation and processing pipeline. Two methods of trajectory estimation were applied, showing better fit results using a linearly changing velocity model versus a constant velocity model. The estimated mean radiant position has been found to be at RA = 262.6°, Dec = +55.7°, with estimated geocentric velocity Vg = 20.7 km/s.     

Geochemistry of Sediments from the Lopare Basin (Bosnia and Herzegovina): Implications for Paleoclimate, Paleosalinity, Paleoredox and Provenance

A combined inorganic and organic geochemical study was carried out on marls and mudstones collected from the Lower Miocene Lopare Basin, Bosnia and Herzegovina. A total of 46 samples collected from two boreholes, Pot 1 (depth of 193 m) and Pot 3 (depth of 344 m), showed that element abundances like boron (B), lithium (Li), strontium (Sr), uranium (U), chromium (Cr), nickel (Ni), magnesium (Mg), sodium (Na) and calcium (Ca) are much higher than average than in the upper continental crust (UCC). Chemical composition indicates at least two sources: (i) Mesozoic ophiolites occurring in the north of the investigated area, and (ii) dacito-andesitic pyroclastics (Mesozoic to Cenozoic). Lopare Basin sedimentation was influenced by strong evaporation resulting in a partly hypersaline lake, which formed during a warm climatic period, probably during the Miocene Climatic Optimum. A brief episode of humid climate conditions resulted in the basin filling-up and deposition of felsic sediments enriched in thorium (Th). Organic geochemistry shows that the majority of studied sediments contains predominantly immature to marginally mature algal organic matter (OM). The biomarker patterns are generally in agreement with the geological history of the Lopare Basin and inorganic and mineralogical data. Conversely, the molecular distribution of n-alkanes as reliable climatic and δ-MTTC as paleosalinity indicators do not support this conclusion.     

Conformal octagon: An attractive framework for global models offering quasi-uniform regional enhancement of resolution

Summary With the increasingly widespread adoption of massively parallel processing (MPP) computers for applications in computational fluid dynamics it becomes appropriate to reconsider the geometrical configuration of the computational grid that best suits the problem. In the case of global numerical weather prediction we have recently advocated a conformal spherical-cubic geometry. Among its merits, this grid lends itself naturally to simple domain-decomposition and obviates the need for polar filtering.Here we extend the same principles, but with an emphasis on the problem of regional forecasting. In this case we observe that it is possible to cover the global domain with a conformal grid geometry based on the mapping to the sphere of a back-to-back pair of octagonal regions. In the most symmetrical case, each octagon maps to a hemisphere. By compounding this mapping with a nonhomogeneous conformal mapping of the sphere to itself, one can also arrange to have quasi-uniform enhanced resolution of the resulting grid inside any chosen circle on the sphere, at the expense of relatively coarse resolution degrading gradually with distance outside the circle of interest.With appropriate grid dimensions, the new conformal octagon decomposes naturally into several identical square subdomains for efficient distribution over the nodes of an MPP computer.With 11 Figures