A Critical Analysis of Transverse Dispersivity Field Data

Transverse dispersion, or tracer spreading orthogonal to the mean flow direction, which is relevant e.g, for quantifying bio-degradation of contaminant plumes or mixing of reactive solutes, has been studied in the literature less than the longitudinal one. Inferring transverse dispersion coefficients from field experiments is a difficult and error-prone task, requiring a spatial resolution of solute plumes which is not easily achievable in applications. In absence of field data, it is a questionable common practice to set transverse dispersivities as a fraction of the longitudinal one, with the ratio 1/10 being the most prevalent. We collected estimates of field-scale transverse dispersivities from existing publications and explored possible scale relationships as guidance criteria for applications. Our investigation showed that a large number of estimates available in the literature are of low reliability and should be discarded from further analysis. The remaining reliable estimates are formation-specific, span three orders of magnitude and do not show any clear scale-dependence on the plume traveled distance. The ratios with the longitudinal dispersivity are also site specific and vary widely. The reliability of transverse dispersivities depends significantly on the type of field experiment and method of data analysis. In applications where transverse dispersion plays a significant role, inference of transverse dispersivities should be part of site characterization with the transverse dispersivity estimated as an independent parameter rather than related heuristically to longitudinal dispersivity.     

A cross-border regional earthquake early warning system: PRESTo@CE<Superscript>3</Superscript>RN

Since 2002 the Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale (OGS) in Udine (Italy), the Agencija Republike Slovenije za Okolje (ARSO) in Ljubljana (Slovenia) and the Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik (ZAMG) in Vienna (Austria), are collecting, analyzing, archiving and exchanging seismic data in real time, initially in the framework of the EU Interreg IIIa Italia-Austria project “Trans-national seismological networks in the South-Eastern Alps”. As outcome of the successful cooperation, in the 2013 OGS, ARSO and ZAMG decided to officially merge their seismic monitoring efforts into the “Central and Eastern European Earthquake Research Network—CE³RN”. This work reports the results of a nine-month real-time test of the earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithm probabilistic and evolutionary early warning system carried out at the CE³RN. The study allowed identifying the actions to be implemented in order to let the CE³RN become in the next future an efficient cross-border EEW system.     

1980 volcanic eruption reported on Marion Island

The first volcanic eruption in the recorded history of Marion Island (46°54′S, 37°45′E) occurred between February and October 1980 at a locality on the west coast. It was a minor event that passed unnoticed at the meteorological station 20 km distant. The discovery was made on November 4, by five expedition members who walked around the island. When examined in more detail on November 25, the lava was still warm in places and numerous fumaroles existed. Three blocky flows emanated from two adjacent cinder cones built-up on a pre-existing phreatomagmatic tuff cone known as Kaalkoppie. The largest flow covers an area of about seven hectares and a further two hectares have been inundated by ash. Another flow poured seawards to form a new beach front, blocking access to what was previously the largest elephant seal wallowing ground on the island. No earth tremors were felt and the activity seems to have ended for the time being.     

Turbidity limits gas exchange in a large macrotidal estuary

In estuaries, the gas transfer velocity (k) is driven by a combination of two major physical drivers, wind and water current. The k values for CO₂ in the macrotidal Gironde Estuary were obtained from 159 simultaneous pCO₂ and floating chamber flux measurements. Values of k increased with wind speed and were significantly greater when water currents and wind were in opposing directions. At low wind speeds (<1 m s⁻¹), k increased with water current velocities (0–1.5 m s⁻¹) following an exponential trend. The latter was a good proxy for the Y-intercept in a generic equation for k versus wind speed in estuaries. We also found that, in this turbid estuary, k was significantly lower at high turbidity. The presence of suspended material in great concentrations (TSS > 0.2 g L⁻¹) had a significant role in attenuating turbulence and therefore gas exchange. This result has important consequences for modeling water oxygenation in estuarine turbidity maxima. For seven low turbidity estuaries previously described in the literature, the slope of the linear regression between k and wind speed correlates very well with the estuary surface area due to a fetch effect. In the Gironde Estuary, this slope follows the same trend at low turbidity (TSS < 0.2 g L⁻¹), but is on average significantly lower than in other large estuaries and decreases linearly with the TSS concentration. A new generic equation for estuaries is proposed that gives k as a function of water current velocity, wind speed, estuarine surface area and TSS concentration.     

Young Close-By Neutron Stars: The Gould Belt Vs. The Galactic Disc

We present new population synthesis calculations of close young neutron stars. In comparison with our previous investigation we use a different neutron star mass spectrum and different initial spatial and velocity distributions. The results confirm that most of ROSAT dim radioquiet isolated neutron stars had their origin in the Gould Belt. We predict that about several tens of young neutron stars can be identified in ROSAT All Sky Survey data at low galactic latitudes. Some of these sources also can have counterparts among EGRET unidentified sources.     

Palaeoenvironmental evolution and sea‐level fluctuations along the southeastern Pampa grasslands coast of Argentina during the Holocene

Holocene pollen and diatom analyses and complementary data from δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C, malacology and sedimentology have provided a detailed record of vegetation history and palaeoenvironmental change at arroyo Las Brusquitas, on the southeastern coast of the pampas of Argentina especially in relation to past sea levels. Holocene palaeosalinity trends were estimated by Detrended Correspondence Analysis and by salinity indexes based on pollen and diatom data. As a consequence of sea‐level rise from the postglacial an extensive wave‐cut platform formed over which Holocene infilling sequences were deposited unconformably. In these sequences, variation in pollen and diatom assemblages occurred in agreement with changes in mollusc diversity and abundance, isotope values, and sediment deposits. Between ca. 6700 and 6190 ¹⁴C yr BP (6279–6998 cal. yr BP) saline conditions predominated in an environment highly influenced by tides and salt water during the Holocene sea‐level highstand. Between ca. 6200 and 3900 ¹⁴C yr BP (4235–4608 cal. yr BP) shallow brackish water bodies formed surrounded by saltmarsh vegetation that became more widespread from 5180 ¹⁴C yr BP (5830–6173 cal. yr BP) to 3900 ¹⁴C yr BP in relation to a sea‐level stabilisation period within the regression phase. Less saline conditions marked by frequent variations in salinity predominated between ca. 3900 and 2040 yr ¹⁴C BP (1830–2160 cal. yr BP). The intertidal saltmarsh environment changed into a brackish marsh dominated by freshwater conditions and sporadic tidal influence. Halophytic vegetation increased towards ca. 2000¹⁴C yr BP indicating that saline conditions may be due to either desiccation or an unusually high tide range with rare frequency. After ca. 2000 ¹⁴C yr BP the sedimentary sequences were buried by aeolian sand dunes. Changes in Holocene vegetation and environments in Las Brusquitas area are in agreement with data obtained from various southeastern coastal sites of the Pampa grasslands. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Downsizing of supermassive black holes from the SDSS quasar survey – II. Extension to z∼ 4

Starting from the quasar sample of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) for which the C  iv line is observed, we use an analysis scheme to derive the z -dependence of the maximum mass of active black holes, which overcomes the problems related to the Malmquist bias. The same procedure is applied to the low-redshift sample of SDSS quasars for which Hβ measurements are available. Combining with the results from the previously studied Mg  ii sample, we find that the maximum mass of the quasar population increases as  (1 + z )^1.64±0.04  in the redshift range  0.1 z 4  , which includes the epoch of maximum quasar activity.     

Rapid and reliable seismic source characterization in earthquake early warning systems: current methodologies,results, and new perspectives

In the present paper, we provided a review of the main principles and methodologies on which the current earthquake early warning systems are grounded and will also provide a perspective view for next future developments and improvements. First, we introduce the standard methodologies for the source characterization in earthquake early warning, with a special focus on the real-time earthquake magnitude determination. We discuss the suitability of existent methodologies and empirical regression laws for very large events. We then present the different approaches for the rapid prediction of the ground shaking and of the potential damaged zone, both based on traditional seismic data and on the use of continuous GPS data. Finally, the last part of the paper provides the perspective view toward a next generation of early warning systems, linking new research achievements about the earthquake rupture nucleation and the development of new methods/technologies aimed at a fast and high-resolution, real-time modeling of the ongoing source process and accurate prediction of the quake shaking at the regional and local scale.     

McGill algorithm for precipitation nowcasting by lagrangian extrapolation (MAPLE) applied to the South Korean radar network. Part I: Sensitivity studies of the Variational Echo Tracking (VET) technique

A Variational Echo Tracking (VET) technique has been applied to four months of archived data from the South Korean radar network in order to examine the influence of the various user-selectable parameters on the skill of the resulting 20-min to 4-h nowcasts. The latter are computed over a (512 × 512) array at 2-km resolution. After correcting the original algorithm to take into account the motion of precipitation across the boundaries of such a smaller radar network, we concluded that the set of default input parameters initially assumed is very close to the optimum combination. Decreasing to (5 sx 5) or increasing to (50 × 50) the default vector density of (25 × 25), using two or three maps for velocity determination, varying the relative weights for the constraints of conservation of reflectivity and of the smoothing of the velocity vectors, and finally the application of temporal smoothing all had only marginal effects on the skill of the forecasts. The relatively small sensitivity to significant variations of the VET default parameters is a direct consequence of the fact that the major source of the loss in forecast skill cannot be attributed to errors in the forecast motion, but to the unpredictable nature of the storm growth and decay. Changing the time interval between maps, from 20 to 10 minutes, and significantly increasing the reflectivity threshold from 15 to 30 dBZ had a more noticeable reduction on the forecast skill. Comparisons with the Eulerian “zero velocity“ forecast and with a “single“ vector forecast have also been performed in order to determine the accrued skill of the VET algorithm. Because of the extensive stratiform nature of the precipitation areas affecting the Korean peninsula, the increased skill is not as large as may have been anticipated. This can be explained by the greater extent of the precipitation systems relative to the size of the radar coverage domain.     

Analysis of the impact of injection mode in transport through strongly heterogeneous aquifers

Large-scale advective transport through highly heterogeneous 3D formations is investigated using highly resolved numerical simulations and simple analytic models. Investigations are focused on impacts of two types of contaminant injection on transport through isotropic formations where flow conditions are uniform in the average. Transport is quantified by analyzing breakthrough curves for control planes at various distances from the injection zone. In flux-proportional injection mode local mass in injection zone is proportional to local groundwater flux; this setup models many practical cases such as contaminant injection through wells. In resident concentration mode local concentration in injection zone is constant. Results show that impacts of injection mode on breakthrough curves and their moments are strong and they persist for hundreds of correlation scales. The resident concentration mode leads to a fatter tails of the breakthrough curves, while the peaks are generally underpredicted. For a synthetic porous medium with logconductivity variance of 8, dispersivity computed using resident concentration mode at control plane 100 integral scales away from the injection zone was about 10 times larger than corresponding one for flux-proportional mode. Hence, injection mode impacts on transport through highly heterogeneous formations are strong and they persist for large distances from the injection zone.