Sub-Gaussian model of processes with heavy-tailed distributions applied to air permeabilities of fractured tuff

Earth and environmental variables are commonly taken to have multivariate Gaussian or heavy-tailed distributions in space and/or time. This is based on the observation that univariate frequency distributions of corresponding samples appear to be Gaussian or heavy-tailed. Of particular interest to us is the well-documented but heretofore little noticed and unexplained phenomenon that whereas the frequency distribution of log permeability data often seems to be Gaussian, that of corresponding increments tends to exhibit heavy tails. The tails decay as powers of ? $ \alpha $ where 1 <  $ \alpha $  < 2 is either constant or grows monotonically toward an asymptote with increasing separation distance or lag. We illustrate the latter phenomenon on 1-m scale log air permeabilities from pneumatic tests in 6 vertical and inclined boreholes completed in unsaturated fractured tuff near Superior, Arizona. We then show theoretically and demonstrate numerically, on synthetically generated signals, that whereas the case of constant $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy noise, a random field (or process) subordinated to truncated fractional Gaussian noise, the case of variable $ \alpha $ is consistent with a collection of samples from truncated sub-Gaussian fractional Lévy motion (tfLm), a random field subordinated to truncated fractional Brownian motion. Whereas the first type of signal is relatively regular and characterized by Lévy index $ \alpha $ , the second is highly irregular (punctuated by spurious spikes) and characterized by the asymptote of $ \alpha $ values associated with its increments. We describe a procedure to estimate the parameters of univariate distributions characterizing such signals and apply it to our log air permeability data. The latter are found to be consistent with a collection of samples from tfLm with $ \alpha $ slightly smaller than 2, which is easily confused with a Gaussian field (characterized by constant $ \alpha $  = 2). The irregular (spiky) nature of this signal is typical of observed fractured rock properties. We propose that distributions of earth and environmental variable be inferred jointly from measured values and their increments in a way that insures consistency between these two sets of data.     

Community structure and dynamics of deep-water decapod assemblages from Le Danois Bank (Cantabrian Sea, NE Atlantic): Influence of environmental variables and food availability

The community structure of the decapod crustaceans inhabiting Le Danois Bank (Cantabrian Sea, NE Atlantic Ocean) was studied on two cruises performed in October 2003 and April 2004. Otter and beam-trawls were used to collect this fauna. At depths ranging between 455 and 1048 m, we found distinct decapod assemblages on the bank summit and deeper in the inner basin (between the bank and the continental shelf). The faunal discontinuity between these groups appeared at around 600 m (e.g. between 612 and 642 m in the basis of species replacement). The summit assemblage was characterized by low diversity (in terms of number and relative abundances of species) and by the dominance of hermit crabs (Pagurus alatus, Anapagurus laevis, Pagurus excavatus), the crangonid Pontophilus spinosus and the squat lobster Munida sarsi. Species characterizing the deeper assemblage, which was richer in terms of diversity, were Munida tenuimana, Parapagurus pilosimanus, Pontophilus norvegicus, the crab Geryon trispinosus and a number of bathypelagic shrimps (Sergia robusta, Acanthephyra pelagica and Pasiphaea tarda). Changes in decapod composition characterized by multidimensional scaling analyses were correlated with different variables, e.g. %mud and %organic matter (OM), temperature and salinity close to the bottom. Among those the %OM and %mud in sediments affected decapod distributions the most. The summit of the bank was covered by fine sediments with low proportion of mud (13.9–29.3%) and OM (2.55–3.50%). By contrast, sediment of the inner basin had a higher proportion of OM and mud (64.1–84.2%; 6.26–7.00%, respectively). The low proportion of mud at the summit of Le Danois Bank may explain the absence or scarcity of burrowing species (e.g. the lobster Nephrops norvegicus, the shrimps Calocaris macandreae and Alpheus glaber and the crab Goneplax rhomboides), that are dominant at similar depths (400–500 m) in the upper muddy assemblage on the mainland-continental slope in the Bay of Biscay (44–46°N). The dominance of certain species on the summit of submarine mounts can probably be related to their biology and feeding ecology. For example, pagurids are deposit feeders, even consuming marine snow (e.g. Chl-a identified in guts of Pagurus alatus), and they have low gut fullness (probably indicating a capacity to withstand long periods under starvation), that would favour their adaptability to a rather unpredictable habitat such as Le Danois Bank summit. Regarding prey availability, zooplankton/micronekton and infauna distributed around Le Danois Bank showed different depth-related patterns. Among zooplankton, mesopelagic decapods, mysids, and fishes were absent at the bank summit, while euphausiids exhibited high abundances over the summit. No significant trends with depth were found for infauna abundance, and for instance polychaete densities were similar both at the summit and the inner basin. Therefore, prey availability was lower for summit assemblages regarding zooplankton/micronekton. Patterns in mean size vs. depth were species specific for decapods, and the possible role of the bank summit as a recruitment area was not general for the whole decapod assemblage.     

Age and origin of the lowlands of Mars

One of the many significant findings of the Mars Global Surveyor mission is the presence of hundreds of quasi-circular depressions (QCDs) observed from high-resolution MOLA topography data. Their presence has recently been interpreted to reflect a northern lowlands that archive some of the earliest recorded rocks on Mars, mostly below a veneer of Hesperian and Amazonian materials. Here we analyze these data, coupled with a recent synthesis of geologic, geophysical, geomorphic, topographic, and magnetic information. Such analysis allows us to suggest a potential plate tectonic phase during the recorded Early into Middle Noachian martian history that transitioned into a monoplate world with episodic magmatic-driven activity persisting to present. This working hypothesis is based on: (1) the observation that the basement of the northern plains is younger than the basement of the southern highlands, but older than the material exposures of the cratered highlands, suggesting different formational ages for each one of the three geologic-time units; (2) the observation that parts of the very ancient highland's crust are highly magnetized, thus suggesting that most if not all of the formation of the lowlands basement postdates the shut off of the martian dynamo, some 4 Gyr ago, and so allowing hundreds of millions of years for the shaping of the buried lowlands. Consequently, the role of endogenic processes in the earliest geological evolution of Mars (Early perhaps into Middle Noachian) requires reconsideration, since MOLA topographic and MGS magnetic data afford a temporal window sufficient for very early, non-primordial shaping of the northern lowlands' basement.     

Evaluating Earthquake-Triggered Landslide Hazard at the Basin Scale Through Gis in the Upper Sele River Valley

To evaluate techniques for assessing earthquake-triggeredlandslide hazard in the Southern Apennines (Italy), a GIS-based analysis was used to modelseismically induced slope deformations. Geological, geotechnical, geomorphological and seismologicaldata were integrated into a standard earthquake slope stability model. The model assessed thelandslide potential that existed during the 1980 Irpinian earthquake in the Upper Sele river Valley.The standard Newmark displacement analysis, widely used for predicting the location of shallowunstable slopes, does not take into account errors and/or uncertainties in the input parameters.Therefore, a probabilistic Newmark displacement analysis technique has been used. Probabilistictechniques allow, e.g., an estimation of the probability that a slope will exceed a certain criticalvalue of Newmark displacement. In our probabilistic method, a Monte-Carlo based simulation modelis used in conjunction with a GIS. The random variability of geotechnical data is modelled by probabilitydensity functions (pdfs), while for the seismic input three different regression laws wereconsidered. Input probability distributions are sampled and the resulting values input into empiricalrelations for estimating Newmark displacement. The outcome is a map in which to each siteis related a spatial probability distribution for the expected displacement in response to seismic loading.Results of the experiments show a high grade of uncertainty in the application of the Newmarkanalysis both for the deterministic and probabilistic approach in a complex geological setting suchas the high Sele valley, quite common in the Southern Apennines. They show a strong dependence onthe reliability of the spatial data used in input, so that, when the model is used at basin scale,results are strongly influenced by local environmental condition (e.g., topography, lithology, groundwatercondition) and decrease the model performance.     

Statistical analysis of the temperature records for the Northern Territory of Australia

The Northern Territory of Australia has a unique situation of an extension larger than France and a population of 200,000, with only three meteorology stations open for more than 40 years, Darwin (DW), Alice Springs (AS) and Tennant Creek, and only two of them, DW and AS, providing data over 100 years, and from 500 to more than 1,000 km separating these stations and the stations in the neighbouring states of Australia. Homogenizations of data in between different measuring sites for the same location as well as the way to derive the missed data to complete at least 100 years from the neighbouring locations are analysed in details and the effects on the temperature trends are straightforwardly investigated. Using properly homogenised data over 130 years and a linear fitting, the warming maximum and minimum temperatures are +0.009 and +0.057 °C/10 years for Alice Springs and ?0.025 and 0.064 °C/10 years for Darwin. With the data available, the only option to produce warming trends is to overweight the cold years in the middle of the 1970s and the subsequent return to warmer temperatures. Starting from 1980, to compute trends, there is still a clear warming in Alice Springs, but also clear cooling in Tennant Creek, and a mixed behaviour with warming maximum temperatures and cooling minimum temperatures in Darwin.     

Controls on event runoff coefficients in the eastern Italian Alps

Analyses of event runoff coefficients provide essential insight on catchment response, particularly if a range of catchments and a range of events are compared by a single indicator. In this study we examine the effect of climate, geology, land use, flood types and initial soil moisture conditions on the distribution functions of the event runoff coefficients for a set of 14 mountainous catchments located in the eastern Italian Alps, ranging in size from 7.3 to 608.4 km². Runoff coefficients were computed from hourly precipitation, runoff data and estimates of snowmelt. A total of 535 events were analysed over the period 1989–2004. We classified each basin using a “permeability index” which was inferred from a geologic map and ranged from “low” to “high permeability”. A continuous soil moisture accounting model was applied to each catchment to classify ‘wet’ and ‘dry’ initial soil moisture conditions. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of runoff coefficients is highly correlated with mean annual precipitation, with the mean runoff coefficient increasing with mean annual precipitation. Geology, through the ‘permeability index’, is another important control on runoff coefficients for catchments with mean annual precipitation less than 1200 mm. Land use, as indexed by the SCS curve number, influences runoff coefficient distribution to a lesser degree. An analysis of the runoff coefficients by flood type indicates that runoff coefficients increase with event snowmelt. Results show that there exists an intermediate region of subsurface water storage capacity, as indexed by a flow–duration curve-based index, which maximises the impact of initial wetness conditions on the runoff coefficient. This means that the difference between runoff coefficients characterised by wet and dry initial conditions is negligible both for basins with very large storage capacity and for basins with small storage capacity. For basins with intermediate storage capacities, the impact of the initial wetness conditions may be relatively large.     

Modelling nitrogen and oxygen isotope fractionation during denitrification in a lacustrine redox-transition zone

The stable isotope composition (δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O) of nitrate was measured during Summer 1999 in the anaerobic hypolimnion of eutrophic Lake Lugano (Switzerland). Denitrification was demonstrated by a progressive nitrate depletion coupled to increasing δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O values for residual nitrate. Maximum δ¹⁵N and δ¹⁸O values amounted to 27.2 and 15.7‰, respectively.¹⁵N and ¹⁸O enrichment factors for denitrification (ε) were estimated using a closed-system model and a dynamic diffusion-reaction model. Using the Rayleigh equation (closed-system approach), we obtained ε values of −11.2 and −6.6‰ for nitrogen and oxygen, respectively. The average ε values derived using the diffusion-reaction model were determined to be −20.7 ± 3.8 for nitrogen and −11.0 ± 1.7 for oxygen. Both N and O isotope fractionation appeared to be lower when denitrification rates where high, possibly in association with high organic carbon availability. In addition, variations in the isotope effects may be attributed to the variable importance of sedimentary denitrification having only a small isotope effect on the water column. The combined measurement of N and O isotope ratios in nitrate revealed that coupled nitrification-denitrification in the open-water was of minor importance. This is the first study of nitrogen and oxygen isotope effects associated with microbial denitrification in a natural lake. Moreover, this study confirms the high potential of δ¹⁸O of nitrate as a valuable biogeochemical tracer in aquatic systems, complementing nitrate δ¹⁵N.