Measuring and interpreting heat fluxes from shallow volcanic bodies using vertical temperature profiles: a preliminary test

 To test the potential of heat flux prospecting in active volcanic areas using shallow temperature data taken along vertical profiles, we carried out two thermal profile surveys, one not far from Yasur cone on Tanna Island, and another inside the caldera of Ambrym (New Hebrides arc, southwestern Pacific). The basic steady heat flux of internal volcanic origin was determined, taking into account both conductive and convective heat transfers. At both locations there exists, over small distances, significant differences in the heat flux. These differences correspond to shallow sources of heat. The use of a network of vertical profiles allowed: (a) heat flux mapping; (b) location of shallow volcanic heat sources; and (c) observation of the detailed structure of the heat release at quiescent but active volcanoes. Received: 18 July 1997 / Accepted: 13 May 1998     

Analysis of the surface temperature and wind forecast errors of the NCAR-AirDat operational CONUS 4-km WRF forecasting system

Investigating the characteristics of model-forecast errors using various statistical and object-oriented methods is necessary for providing useful guidance to end-users and model developers as well. To this end, the random and systematic errors (i.e., biases) of the 2-m temperature and 10-m wind predictions of the NCAR-AirDat weather research and forecasting (WRF)-based real-time four-dimensional data assimilation (RTFDDA) and forecasting system are analyzed. This system has been running operationally over a contiguous United States (CONUS) domain at a 4-km grid spacing with four forecast cycles daily from June 2009 to September 2010. In the result an exceptionally useful forecast dataset was generated and used for studying the error properties of the model forecasts, in terms of both a longer time period and a broader coverage of geographic regions than previously studied. Spatiotemporal characteristics of the errors are investigated based on the 24-h forecasts between June 2009 and April 2010, and the 72-h forecasts between May and September 2010. It was found that the biases of both wind and temperature forecasts vary greatly seasonally and diurnally, with dependency on the forecast length, station elevation, geographical location, and meteorological conditions. The temperature showed systematic cold biases during the daytime at all station elevations and warm biases during the nighttime above 1,000 m above sea level (ASL), while below 600 m ASL cold biases occurred during the nighttime. The forecasts of surface wind speed exhibited strong positive biases during the nighttime, while the negative biases were observed in the spring and summer afternoons. The surface wind speed was mostly over-predicted except for the stations located between 1,000 and 2,100 m ASL, for which negative biases were identified for most forecast cycles. The highest wind-speed errors were found over the high terrain and near sea-level stations. The wind-direction errors were relatively large at the high-terrain elevation in the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges and the western coastal areas and the error structure exhibited notable diurnal variability.     

Mapping landslide susceptibility from small datasets: A case study in the Pays de Herve (E Belgium)

A landslide susceptibility map is proposed for the Pays de Herve (E Belgium), where large landslides affect Cretaceous clay outcrop areas. Based on a Bayesian approach, this GIS-supported probabilistic map identifies the areas most susceptible to deep landslides. The database is comprised of the source areas of ten pre-existing landslides (i.e. a sample of 154 grid cells) and of six environmental data layers, namely lithology, proximity to active faults, slope angle and aspect, elevation and distance to the nearest valley-floor. A 30-m-resolution DEM from the Belgian National Geographical Institute is used for the analysis. Owing to the small size of the sample, a special cross-validation procedure of the susceptibility map is performed, which uses in an iterative way each of the landslides to test the predictive power of the map derived from the other landslides. Four different sets of variables are used to produce four susceptibility maps, whose prediction curves are compared. While the prediction rates associated with the models not involving the “proximity to active fault” criterion are comparable to those of the models considering this variable, strong weaknesses inherent in the fault data on which the latter rely suggest that the final susceptibility map should be based on a model that excludes any reference to fault. This highlights the difference between a triggering factor and determining factors, and in the same time broadens the scope of the produced map. A single reactivated slide is also used to test the possibility of predicting future reactivation of existing landslides in the area. Finally, the need for geomorphological control over the mathematical treatment is underlined in order to obtain realistic prediction maps.     

Twin structure in coesite studied by high resolution electron microscopy

A synthetic crystal of coesite, SiO₂, has been found to contain microtwins. The (100) reflection twin has been made evident on incoherent (010) planes. The twin structure is directly imaged by high resolution electron microscopy at 2,5 Å resolution, allowing an atomic model to be proposed. This twin could be incoherent on large surfaces and the dislocation density is predicted. The X-ray crystallographic data are analyzed critically in view of the presence of such defects in single crystals. The mutual orientation between a silicon matrix and coesite precipitates in Czochralski-silicon annealed specimens is proposed to be non unique as a consequence of the easy twinning of coesite.     

Continuous GPS and broad-scale deformation across the Rhine Graben and the Alps

In order to study the ongoing tectonic deformation in the Rhine Graben area, we reconstruct the local crustal velocity and the strain rate field from GPS array solutions. Following the aim of this work, we compile the velocities of permanent GPS stations belonging to various networks (EUREF, AGNES, REGAL and RGP) in central western Europe. Moreover, the strain rate field is displayed in terms of principal axes and values, while the normal and the shear components of the strain tensor are calculated perpendicular and parallel to the strike of major faults. The results are compared with the fault plane solutions of earthquakes, which have occurred in this area. A broad-scale kinematic deformation model across the Rhine Graben is provided on the basis of tectonics and velocity results of the GPS permanent stations. The area of study is divided into four rigid blocks, between which there might be relative motions. The velocity and the strain rate fields are reconstructed along their borders, by estimating a uniform rotation for each block. The tectonic behaviour is well represented by the four-block model in the Rhine Graben area, while a more detailed model will be needed for a better reconstruction of the strain field in the Alpine region.

Multi-scale aquifer characterization and groundwater flow model parameterization using direct push technologies

Direct push (DP) technologies are typically used for cost-effective geotechnical characterization of unconsolidated soils and sediments. In more recent developments, DP technologies have been used for efficient hydraulic conductivity (K) characterization along vertical profiles with sampling resolutions of up to a few centimetres. Until date, however, only a limited number of studies document high-resolution in situ DP data for three-dimensional conceptual hydrogeological model development and groundwater flow model parameterization. This study demonstrates how DP technologies improve building of a conceptual hydrogeological model. We further evaluate the degree to which the DP-derived hydrogeological parameter K, measured across different spatial scales, improves performance of a regional groundwater flow model. The study area covers an area of ~60 km² with two overlying, mainly unconsolidated sand aquifers separated by a 5–7 m thick highly heterogeneous clay layer (in north-eastern Belgium). The hydrostratigraphy was obtained from an analysis of cored boreholes and about 265 cone penetration tests (CPTs). The hydrogeological parameter K was derived from a combined analysis of core and CPT data and also from hydraulic direct push tests. A total of 50 three-dimensional realizations of K were generated using a non-stationary multivariate geostatistical approach. To preserve the measured K values in the stochastic realizations, the groundwater model K realizations were conditioned on the borehole and direct push data. Optimization was performed to select the best performing model parameterization out of the 50 realizations. This model outperformed a previously developed reference model with homogeneous K fields for all hydrogeological layers. Comparison of particle tracking simulations, based either on the optimal heterogeneous or reference homogeneous groundwater model flow fields, demonstrate the impact DP-derived subsurface heterogeneity in K can have on groundwater flow and solute transport. We demonstrated that DP technologies, especially when calibrated with site-specific data, provide high-resolution 3D subsurface data for building more reliable conceptual models and increasing groundwater flow model performance.     

Dynamic faulting under rate-dependent friction

We discuss the effects of rate-dependent friction on the propagation of seismic rupture on active faults. Several physicists using Burridge and Knopoff's box and spring model of faulting have proposed that fault complexity may arise from the spontaneous development of a self-similar stress distribution on the fault plane. If this model proves to be correct, it has important consequences for the origin of the complexity of seismic sources. In order to test these ideas on a more realistic earthquake model, we developed a new boundary integral equation method for studying rupture propagation along an antiplane fault in the presence of nonlinear rate-dependent friction. We study rupture dynamics of models with single and twin asperities. In our models, asperities are places on the fault with a higher value of prestress. Othewise all fault parameters are homogeneous. We show that for models with such asperities, a slip velocity weakening friction leads to the propagation of supersonic healing phases and to the spontaneous arrest of fracture if the prestress outside the asperities is low enough. For models with asperities, we can also observe narrow slip velocity pulses, qualitatively similar to the so-called Heaton pulses observed in some earthquake accelerograms. We also observe a complex distribution of stress after the rupture that depends on details of the initial distribution of asperities and on the details of the friction law.     

Late Quaternary kinematics of the Pallatanga strike-slip fault (Central Ecuador) from topographic measurements of displaced morphological features

The northeast-trending Pallatanga right-lateral strike-slip fault runs across the Western Cordillera connecting N50E-N70E trending normal faults in the Gulf of Guayaquil with N-S reverse faults in the Interandean Depression. Over most of its length, the fault trace has been partly obscured by erosional processes and can be inferred in the topography only at the large scale. Only the northern fault segment, which follows the upper Rio Pangor valley at elevations above 3600 m, is prominent in the morphology. Valleys and ridges cut and offset by the fault provide an outstanding record of right-lateral cumulative fault displacement. The fault geometry and kinematics of this particular fault segment can be determined from detailed topographic levellings. The fault strikes N30E and dips 75 to the NW. Depending on their size and nature, transverse morphological features such as tributaries of the Rio Pangor and intervening ridges, reveal right-lateral offsets which cluster around 27 ± 11m, 41.5 ± 4 m, 590 ± 65 m and 960 ± 70 m. The slip vector deduced from the short-term offsets shows a slight reverse component with a pitch of about 11.5 SW. The 41.5 ± 4 m displacements are assumed to be coeval with the last glacial termination, yielding a mean Holocene slip-rate of 2.9- 4.6 mm yr⁻¹. Assuming a uniform slip rate on the fault in the long term, the 27 m offset appears to correlate with an identified middle Holocene morphoclimatic event, and the long term offsets of 590 m and 960 m coincide with the glacial terminations at the beginning of the last two interglacial periods.     

Detailed gravity study of the offshore structure of Piton de la Fournaise volcano,Reunion Island

We present an interpretation of gravity data acquired in 1984 by the French R/V Jean Charcot on the submarine part of the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano. We comment on the Bouguer anomaly map and give a quantitative interpretation of three gravity profiles. The main results are that a gravity high over Grand Brûlé, the lower subaerial part of the eastern flank, does not extend far offshore and that an anomalous topographic feature, discovered in 1982 on the submarine eastern flank, is characterized by a large negative anomaly. We propose three hypotheses to explain the origin of this anomaly, i. e., it marks the site of a new volcano, or it is a consequence of lateral volcanism from a volcano older than Piton de la Fournaise, or more probably, it represents a great landslide deposit.     

A new method for sampling and analyzing volcanic sublimates — application to Merapi volcano, Java

A new method for the sampling of sublimates from high-temperature volcanic gases has been used at Merapi volcano, Java, in 1978. The sublimates were collected on the inner walls of silica tubes introduced into fumarolic vents. Volcanic gases were allowed to move freely through the tubes and as they cooled, a fraction of the volatile components condensed on the inner walls of the tubes along the temperature gradient. The sublimates were then analyzed by a combination of light microscopy, scanning electron microscopy, electron microprobe and X-ray diffraction.Six successive zones of different compositions and mineralogical associations have been identified along the covered range of temperatures (900° to around 400°C). From the high to the low temperatures, these zones are composed of: (1) cristobalite, magnetite, hercynite; (2) molybdenite; (3) acmite; (4) halite, sylvite; (5) sphalerite, pyrite; and (6) galena. Equilibrium calculations show that these crystalline phases are stable for pS₂, pC₁, and pO₂, values typical of magma-buffered gases that have not been contaminated by atmospheric oxygen.The deposits observed in the tubes may be useful in aiding the understanding of the mechanisms acting during the cooling of the gaseous phase on its way to the surface and before its emission into the atmosphere.