Land desertification and restoration in Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is characterized by high population growth, degraded and fragile nat-ural ecosystems, and a limited amount of arable lands. It is one of the most water-sc...     

An evaluation of the CORDEX regional climate models in simulating future rainfall and extreme events over Mzingwane catchment,Zimbabwe

The study evaluated CORDEX RCMs’ ability to project future rainfall and extreme events in the Mzingwane catchment using an ensemble average of three RCMs (RCA4, REMO2009 and CRCM5). Model validation employed the statistical mean and Pearson correlation, while trends in projected rainfall and number of rainy days were computed using the Mann-Kendall trend test and the magnitudes of trends were determined by Sen’s slope estimator. Temporal and spatial distribution of future extreme dryness and wetness was established by using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). The results show that RCMs adequately represented annual and inter-annual rainfall variability and the ensemble average outperformed individual models. Trend results for the projected rainfall suggest a significant decreasing trend in future rainfall (2016–2100) for all stations at p < 0.05. In addition, a general decreasing trend in the number of rainy days is projected for future climate, although the significance and magnitude varied with station location. Model results suggest an increased occurrence of future extreme events, particularly towards the end of the century. The findings are important for developing proactive sustainable strategies for future climate change adaption and mitigation.     

Influence d'un changement climatique dû à une hausse de gaz à effet de serre sur l'agriculture au quebec

Abstract

This study, using a climate change scenario generated by the Canadian Climate Centre (CCC) general circulation model (GCM) examines the impacts of such a climate change on agriculture in southern Quebec. Using a crop model from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), yield responses of a variety of cereals, legumes, oleaginous and special crops to climate change are analysed and discussed.

Results show that under the 2 × CO₂ climate scenario the growing season would be longer and accumulation of corn heat units and growing degree days would be more important than under actual climate (1961–1990). One of the more important results of this study is that, on the one hand yield of C₃ cereals would be lower and that of C₄ cereals higher in most agricultural regions. On the other hand, the direct fertilisation effect of increased CO₂ is not considered. It must be cautioned however that we can not generalise results obtained for one legume crop to all legumes.     

Potential for small scale added value of RCM’s downscaled climate change signal

In recent decades, the need of future climate information at local scales have pushed the climate modelling community to perform increasingly higher resolution simulations and to develop alternative approaches to obtain fine-scale climatic information. In this article, various nested regional climate model (RCM) simulations have been used to try to identify regions across North America where high-resolution downscaling generates fine-scale details in the climate projection derived using the “delta method”. Two necessary conditions were identified for an RCM to produce added value (AV) over lower resolution atmosphere-ocean general circulation models in the fine-scale component of the climate change (CC) signal. First, the RCM-derived CC signal must contain some non-negligible fine-scale information—independently of the RCM ability to produce AV in the present climate. Second, the uncertainty related with the estimation of this fine-scale information should be relatively small compared with the information itself in order to suggest that RCMs are able to simulate robust fine-scale features in the CC signal. Clearly, considering necessary (but not sufficient) conditions means that we are studying the “potential” of RCMs to add value instead of the AV, which preempts and avoids any discussion of the actual skill and hence the need for hindcast comparisons. The analysis concentrates on the CC signal obtained from the seasonal-averaged temperature and precipitation fields and shows that the fine-scale variability of the CC signal is generally small compared to its large-scale component, suggesting that little AV can be expected for the time-averaged fields. For the temperature variable, the largest potential for fine-scale added value appears in coastal regions mainly related with differential warming in land and oceanic surfaces. Fine-scale features can account for nearly 60 % of the total CC signal in some coastal regions although for most regions the fine scale contributions to the total CC signal are of around ～5 %. For the precipitation variable, fine scales contribute to a change of generally less than 15 % of the seasonal-averaged precipitation in present climate with a continental North American average of ～5 % in both summer and winter seasons. In the case of precipitation, uncertainty due to sampling issues may further dilute the information present in the downscaled fine scales. These results suggest that users of RCM simulations for climate change studies in a delta method framework have little high-resolution information to gain from RCMs at least if they limit themselves to the study of first-order statistical moments. Other possible benefits arising from the use of RCMs—such as in the large scale of the downscaled fields– were not explored in this research.     

Anticipated economic costs and benefits of ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by the State of Qatar

Abstract

Further ratification of the Kyoto Protocol by non-Annex 1 countries such as the State of Qatar will not affect the entrance into force of the Treaty; however, ratification remains an important decision due to other considerations, primarily the economic costs and benefits associated with ratification. As a member of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Qatar's economic position is closely allied with revenue generated from its oil and natural gas resources. Qatar expects adverse impacts from implementing the Kyoto Protocol, though the estimated magnitude varies enormously with different models. Also, the impacts depend significantly on how the implementation is done; for example, the kind of policies that other countries use. Qatar is able to counter adverse impacts by exploiting its greater share of natural gas and developing energy-intensive industries that produce nonenergy goods such as steel, petrochemicals, and chemicals. Furthermore, it is clear that clauses in the Protocol can be developed to protect OPEC interests, and if Qatar does not ratify the Protocol, it will be excluded from the subsequent rule-making processes. On balance, there are benefits to ratifying the Treaty, and there is also a strong need for extensive further research.     

Effect of ion temperature on arbitrary amplitude Kinetic Alfvén solitons in a plasma with a q-nonextensive electron velocity distribution

Taking into account of ion temperature effect, existence conditions of arbitrary amplitude solitary Kinetic Alfvén Waves (KAWs) in a plasma with q-nonextensive electrons are investigated by the conventional Sagdeev pseudo potential method. It is found that only solitons with density hump can exist, the amplitude of which depends sensitively on the parameter q, ion temperature ( \(\sigma= \frac{T_{i}}{T_{e}}\) ) and plasma β. There is an upper limit of solitary wave amplitude which decreases with increase of q, σ and β. The amplitude of solitary KAWs is found to increase with increase in ion temperature. The results obtained in the framework of Maxwellian distribution are reproduced when q→1.     

NanoSIMS analysis of organic carbon from the Tissint Martian meteorite: Evidence for the past existence of subsurface organic‐bearing fluids on Mars

Two petrographic settings of carbonaceous components, mainly filling open fractures and occasionally enclosed in shock‐melt veins, were found in the recently fallen Tissint Martian meteorite. The presence in shock‐melt veins and the deuterium enrichments (δD up to +1183‰) of these components clearly indicate a pristine Martian origin. The carbonaceous components are kerogen‐like, based on micro‐Raman spectra and multielemental ratios, and were probably deposited from fluids in shock‐induced fractures in the parent rock of Tissint. After precipitation of the organic matter, the rock experienced another severe shock event, producing the melt veins that encapsulated a part of the organic matter. The C isotopic compositions of the organic matter (δ¹³C = ?12.8 to ?33.1‰) are significantly lighter than Martian atmospheric CO₂ and carbonate, providing a tantalizing hint for a possible biotic process. Alternatively, the organic matter could be derived from carbonaceous chondrites, as insoluble organic matter from the latter has similar chemical and isotopic compositions. The presence of organic‐rich fluids that infiltrated rocks near the surface of Mars has significant implications for the study of Martian paleoenvironment and perhaps to search for possible ancient biological activities on Mars.     

Astronomical research activities with the 74 inch telescope at Kottamia observatory

Two topics of research, namely extragalactic and variable star studies represent the main attitudes of astronomical work at the Helwan Observatory.The 74 inch telescope at Kottamia (476 m, 2^h.12, 29^°.93 N) some 60 km to the east of Cairo is the main instrument. Some other auxiliary equipment (Cassegrain and echelle spectrographs, Westinghouse and Japanese cameras and photoelectric photometer) can be attached at both Cassegrain and Newtonian foci.Paper presented at the IAU Third Asian-Pacific Regional Meeting, held in Kyoto, Japan, between 30 September–6 October, 1984.