Comparative analysis of Lake Urmia and Lake Van water level time series

Recent decline in Lake Urmia water level makes it crucial to consider this issue more seriously. For this purpose, comparison of water level in Lake Urmia with Lake Van in Turkey, which is in relatively similar geographic and climate conditions, can be an effective approach. To follow this objective, trend analysis, regime shift, and coherency analyses are implemented. The results showed negative trend in Lake Urmia water level for the past 20 years, while in Lake Van, the trend is positive. Moreover, correlation of the lake level variations versus the basin rainfall during three common periods, identified by the regime shifts analysis, illustrated a decreasing trend in the correlation. These changes can be attributed to non-climatic factors such as different allocation disciplines in two lake’s catchments. Finally, the coherency analysis showed significant annual and inter-annual frequencies common between the two lake levels. Herein, the short-term period relations are associated with lags, while in long term, they act simultaneously.     

Petrofacies, provenance and diagenesis of the dhosa sandstone member (Chari Formation) at Ler, Kachchh sub-basin, Western India

The sandstones of the Dhosa Sandstone Member of Late Callovian and Early Oxfordian age exposed at Ler have been analyzed for their petrofacies, provenance, tectonic setting and diagenetic history. These sandstones are fine to medium grained and poorly- to well sorted. The constituent mineral grains are subangular to subrounded. These sandstones were derived from a mixed provenance including granites, granite–gneisses, low- and high-grade metamorphic and some basic rocks of the Aravalli Range and Nagarparkar Massif. The petrofacies analysis reveals that these sandstones belong to the continental block-, recycled orogen- and rifted continental margin tectonic regime.The imprints of early and deep burial diagenesis of these sandstones include different stages of compaction, cementation, change in crystal boundaries, cement–cement boundaries, chertification and neomorphism. The sequence of cementation includes precipitation of calcite and its subsequent replacement by Fe calcite and silica cements. The typical intermediate burial (2–3 km depth) diagenetic signatures of these sandstones are reflected in the formation of suture and straight-line boundaries, and triple junctions with straight-line boundaries. The depositional environment, relatively low-energy environment that was below storm wave base but subjected to gentle currents, of the Dhosa Sandstone Member controlled the early diagenesis, which in turn influenced the burial diagenesis of these sandstones.     

Urban steeplands in the tropics: an environment of accelerated erosion

The developing countries at present have a high urban growth rate that is likely to continue for at least another quarter-century. In addition, many of these urban centres are located in the Neogene plate boundary zones and are subject to multiple earthquake and volcanic hazards. Slope failures and accelerated surface and channel erosion are particularly severe in cities near active plate margins, and in areas affected also by tropical cyclones. We discuss two extreme cases: Singapore and Kingston (Jamaica). Singapore is located in a stable environment and the urbanization related problems of flood and slope instability have been reduced by proper building and drainage practices at a considerable cost. In Kingston, the external disturbances are repetitive, large-scale, and very difficult to control. The fast-growing cities in the tropics need to be carefully monitored, especially when located in an unstable physical environment. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Geostatistical analysis of soil moisture measurements and remotely sensed data at different spatial scales

The European remote sensing satellite (ERS-2) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data was used for temporal monitoring of soil moisture at Sukhothai, Thailand. Higher correlations were found between the observed soil moisture and the radar backscattering coefficient. The soil moisture distribution shows great variation in space and time due to its stochastic nature. In order to obtain a better understanding of the nature and causes of spatial variation of soil moisture, the extensive soil moisture measurements observed in Thailand and also remotely sensed ERS-2 SAR data were used for geostatistical analysis. The observed soil moisture shows seasonal variations with mean varying from 3.33 %v/v (dry season) to 33.44 %v/v (wet season). The spatial geostatistical structure also shows clear seasonal variations in the geostatistical characteristics such as range and sill. The sills vary from 1.00 (%v/v)² for the driest day to 107.57 (%v/v)² for one of the wet days. The range or the correlation lengths varies between 46.5 and 149.8 m for the wettest and driest periods. The nugget effect does not show strong seasonal pattern or trend but the dry periods usually have a smaller nugget effect than the wet periods. The spherical variogram model fits the sample variograms very well in the case of soil moisture observations while the exponential model fits those of the remotely sensed data. The ranges observed from the observed soil moisture data and remotely sensed data at the same resolution are very similar. Resolution degradation affects the geostatistical structure of the data by reducing the sills, and increasing the ranges.     

A nine-step approach for developing and implementing an “agricultural drought risk management plan”; case study: Alamut River basin in Qazvin,Iran

Occurrence of drought, as an inevitable natural climate feature, cannot be ceased while happening. However, costs of the consequences could be alleviated using mature scientific integrated approaches. To reduce the amount of damage, it is required to provide “Contingency” and “Mitigation” action plans. For this reason, development of efficient operating instructions for various regions based on weather conditions and field studies is needed as well as having a sophisticated understanding of socioeconomic situations. This paper describes an approach to provide the first national agricultural drought risk management plan for a river basin in Iran country as a pilot. The study lasted for 3 years as a national technical research project for the “soil conservation and watershed management research institute.” To reach the objectives, besides holding workshops and specialized think-tank meetings, field researches were done. Based on the socioeconomic data sources in the basin and the results of meetings by participation of local managers and residents, the final plan was developed. Moreover, in order to carry out this research, different climatic, agricultural and local information were collected in the watershed. In the next steps, potential risks and vulnerabilities of various agricultural sectors due to the hazard were evaluated. In this study, a nine-step approach to develop an agricultural drought risk management plan proposing different scientific–managerial phases based on the latest experts’ opinions, released international scientific best practices, and existing conditions governing the region was followed. With respect to the average income of US$ one million from agriculture and animal husbandry in the river basin, total drought loss varies from US$ 86,000 to US$ 258,000 for a range of light to very intense drought conditions, respectively. The setup of these nine executive phases defined monitoring, forecasting, and warning steps in working teams and managed the subprograms in partnership with stakeholders and decision-makers to mitigate the rate of drought damage from 30 to 47% (depending on the severity of the drought condition).

     

2.5-D Gravity/Magnetic Model Studies in Sahl El Qaa Area, Southwestern Sinai, Egypt

The 2.5-D gravity-magnetic models of the upper crustal structures of Sahl El Qaa Area, Southwestern Sinai were constructed along seven profiles, focusing on the uppermost crustal layers to a depth of 4–5 km. In addition separation filtering process; spectral analysis and trend analysis were used to investigate the Bouguer and total intensity aeromagnetic field maps qualitatively and quantitatively. The study showed that the regional structures consist of tilted blocks in the form of a major NW-synclinal feature with an axis dipping northward. This feature is dissected by the NE trending cross faults forming horsts, grabens and step-fault structures. The tilted blocks are controlled by a major normal fault system and are greatly modified in the dip regime from north to south. They show a regional NW dip regime in northern and southern parts, where the depth to the basement reaches about 2–3 km in the down dip. In the central portion, the basin is dipping steeply to the east, with maximum depths attaining about 4–5 km.     

Rancher and farmer perceptions of climate change in Nevada, USA

Farming and ranching communities in arid lands are vulnerable to the adverse impacts of climate change. We surveyed Nevada ranchers and farmers (n?=?481) during 2009–2010 to assess climate change related knowledge, assumptions, and perceptions. The large majority of this group agreed that we are in a period of climate change; however, only 29 % of them believed that human activity is playing a significant role. Female ranchers and farmers hold more scientifically accurate knowledge about climate change than do their male counterparts, regardless of Democratic or Republican affiliation. Partisan affiliation, political ideology, and gender have strong impacts on climate change knowledge and perceptions. Republican, conservative and male rural residents view climate change as a low national priority, less important to themselves, and less harmful to their communities. Female ranchers and farmers are more concerned about the negative impacts of climate change. We found that only 4 % of our subjects (n?=?299) attribute local environment changes to climate change or global warming. The knowledge gained from this study will help researchers and natural resource managers understand how to best communicate about climate change with rural communities, and support policy makers in identifying potentially effective adaptation and mitigation policies and outreach programs.     

Prediction of Land Cover Change Using Markov and Cellular Automata Models: Case of Al-Ain,UAE, 1992-2030

The UAE has witnessed rapid urban development and economic growth in recent years. With its ambitious vision to become one of the advanced nations by 2021, planners and policy-makers need to know the most likely direction of future urban development. In this study, remotely sensed imagery coupled with cellular automata models were used to predict land cover in Al Ain, the second largest city in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Markov and cellular automata models were used for 1992 and 2006 to predict land cover in 2012. Land Use and Land Cover maps for the study area were derived from 1992, 2006, and 2012 Landsat satellite images (TM, ETM⁺). The models achieved an overall accuracy of approximately 80 %. A Markov model was applied for 2006 and 2012 to predict land cover in 2030. The results conformed to the general trend of the Al Ain Master Plan 2030. This study demonstrates that remote sensing, with the availability of free Landsat data, is a viable technology that could be used to help in the prediction process especially in developing countries, where data availability is a problem.     

Influence of surface and vegetation characteristics on C-band radar measurements for soil moisture content

Soil moisture estimation using microwave remote sensing faces challenges of the segregation of influences mainly from roughness and vegetation. Under static surface conditions, it was found that Radarsat C-band SAR shows reasonably good correlation and sensitivity with changing soil moisture. Dynamic surface and vegetation conditions are supposed to result in a substantial reduction in radar sensitivity to soil moisture. A C-band scatterometer system (5.2 GHz) with a multi-polarization and multi-angular configuration was used 12 times to sense the soil moisture over a tall vegetated grass field. A score of vegetation and soil parameters were recorded on every occasion of the experiment. Three radar backscattering models Viz., Integral Equation Model (IEM), an empirical model and a volume scattering model, have been used to predict the backscattering phenomena. The volume scattering model, using the Distorted Born Approximation, is found to predict the backscattering phenomena reasonably well. But the surface scattering models are expectedly found to be inadequate for the purpose. The temporal variation of soil moisture does show good empirical relationship with the observed radar backscattering. But as the vegetation biomass increases, the radar shows higher sensitivity to the vegetation parameters compared to surface characteristics. A sensitivity analysis of the volume scattering model for all the parameters also reveals that the radar is more sensitive to plant parameters under high biomass conditions, particularly vegetation water content, but the sensitivity to surface characteristics, particularly to soil moisture, is also appreciable.