A multi-model decision support system (MM-DSS) for avalanche hazard prediction over North-West Himalaya

Natural Hazards - Avalanche forecasting is carried out using physical as well as statistical models. All these models have certain limitations associated with their mathematical formulation that...     

Prediction for national catastrophe fund

United States of America (US) Congress is considering a bill ‘H.R. 2555: Homeowners’ Defense Act of 2010’ to form National Catastrophe Risk Consortium, one of whose functions is to fund a National Catastrophe Fund to help public and insurance companies meet the liability claims from hurricane, fire, and blizzard. However, before the act is enacted into law by US Congress, the bill has to pass through House Financial Services Committee which takes into account the projected costs, disbursements, and the amount required to be appropriated for the task and its source. Using data for three catastrophes for the last 100 years, the 2011 claims for hurricane, fire, and blizzard in United States of America are estimated. For predicting acres burned and economic damage due to blizzards, a trend analysis and linear regression were carried out using Excel and GraphPad Prism. Poisson distribution was used to model hurricanes. The estimates for the different catastrophes are based on a 95% confidence interval. The cost to the National Catastrophe Fund for the liabilities of fire, blizzard, and hurricane comes to over 2 billion. Of this, the bulk cost arises from fire damage, followed by hurricane damage and blizzard damage.     

Estimation of Snow Cover Area,Snow Physical Properties and Glacier Classification in Parts of Western Himalayas Using C-Band SAR Data

Snow physical properties, snow cover and glacier facies are important parameters which are used to quantify snowpack characteristics, glacier mass balance and seasonal snow and glacier melt. This study has been done using C-band synthetic aperture radar (SAR) data of Indian radar imaging satellite, radar imaging satellite-1 (RISAT)-1, to estimate the seasonal snow cover and retrieve snow physical properties (snow wetness and snow density), and glacier radar zones or facies classification in parts of North West Himalaya (NWH), India. Additional SAR data used are of Radarsat-2 (RS-2) satellite, which was used for glacier facies classification of Smudra Tapu glacier in Himachal Pradesh. RISAT-1 based snow cover area (SCA) mapping, snow wetness and snow density retrieval and glacier facies classification have been done for the first time in NWH region. SAR-based inversion models were used for finding out wet and dry snow dielectric constant, dry and wet SCA, snow wetness and snow density. RISAT-1 medium resolution scan-SAR mode (MRS) in HV polarization was used for first time in NWH for deriving time series of SCA maps in Beas and Bhagirathi river basins for years 2013–2014. The SAR-based inversion models were implemented separately for RISAT-1 quad pol. FRS2, for wet snow and dry snow permittivity retrieval. Masks for layover and shadow were considered in estimating final snow parameters. The overall accuracy in terms of R² value comes out to be 0.74 for snow wetness and 0.72 for snow density based on the limited ground truth data for subset area of Manali sub-basin of Beas River up to Manali for winter of 2014. Accuracy for SCA was estimated to be 95 % when compared with optical remote sensing based SCA maps with error of ±10 %. The time series data of RISAT-1 MRS and hybrid data in RH/RV mode based decompositions were also used for glacier radar zones classification for Gangotri and Samudra Tapu glaciers. The various glaciers radar zones or facies such as debris covered glacier ice, clean or bare glacier ice radar zone, percolation/refreeze radar zone and wet snow, ice wall etc., were identified. The accuracy of classified maps was estimated using ground truth data collected during 2013 and 2014 glacier field work to Samudra Tapu and Gangotri glaciers and overall accuracy was found to be in range of 82–90 %. This information of various glacier radar zones can be utilized in marking firn line of glaciers, which can be helpful for glacier mass balance studies.     

Rainfall-runoff and soil erosion modeling using Remote Sensing and GIS technique — a case study of tons watershed

In the present study, the rainfall-runoff relationship is determined using USDA Soil Conservation Service (SCS) method. The coefficient of determination (R2) is 0.99, which indicates a high correlation between rainfall and runoff. The runoff potential map was prepared by assigning individual class weight and scores input map. Annual spatial soil loss estimation was computed using Morgan, Morgan and Finney mathematical model in conjunction with remote sensing and GIS techniques. Higher soil erosion was found to occur in the northern part of the Tons watershed. The soil texture in the affected area is coarse loamy to loamy skeletal and soil detachment is higher. Moreover the land use has open forests, which does not reduce the impact of rainfall. The average soil loss for all the four sub-watersheds was calculated, and it was found that the maximum average soil loss of 24.1 t/ha occurred in the sub-watershed 1.     

Urban flood hazard mapping using change detection on wetness transformed images

ABSTRACT

The present study demonstrates the use of a new approach for delineating the accurate flood hazard footprint in the urban regions. The methodology involves transformation of Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery to a three-dimensional feature space, i.e. brightness, wetness and greenness, then a change detection technique is used to identify the areas affected by the flood. Efficient thresholding of the normalized difference image generated during change detection has shown promising results in identifying the flood extents which include standing water due to flood, sediment-laden water and wetness caused by the flood. Prior to wetness transformations, dark object subtraction has been used in lower wavelengths to avoid errors due to scattering in urban areas. The study shows promising results in eliminating most of the problems associated with urban flooding, such as misclassification due to presence of asphalt, scattering in lower wavelengths and delineating mud surges. The present methodology was tested on the 2010 Memphis flood event and validated on Queensland floods in 2011. The comparative analysis was carried out with the widely-used technique of delineating flood extents using thresholding of near infrared imagery. The comparison demonstrated that the present approach is more robust towards the error of omission in flood mapping. Moreover, the present approach involves less manual effort and is simpler to use.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor A. Viglione     

Si IX Emission Lines in Spectra Obtained with the Solar euv Research Telescope and Spectrograph (Serts)

Theoretical electron-density-sensitive emission line ratios involving 2s ²2p ²–2s2p ³ transitions in Si?ix between 223 and 350 Å are presented. A comparison of these with an extensive dataset of solar-active-region, quiet-Sun, subflare and off-limb observations, obtained during rocket flights by the Solar EUV Research Telescope and Spectrograph (SERTS), reveals generally very good agreement between theory and experiment. This provides support for the accuracy of the line-ratio diagnostics, and hence the atomic data on which they are based. In particular, the density-sensitive intensity ratio I(258.10 Å)/I(349.87 Å) offers an especially promising diagnostic for studies of coronal plasmas, as it involves two reasonably strong emission lines and varies by more than an order of magnitude over the useful density range of 10⁹–10¹¹ cm^?3. The 2s ²2p ^2 1 S ₀–2s2p ^3 1 P ₁ transition at 259.77 Å is very marginally identified for the first time in the SERTS database, although it has previously been detected in solar flare observations.

     

Line intensity ratios of transitions within the 1s 22s 22p 2 ground configuration of Mgvii

Using theR-matrix approach new calculations have been made for the electron impact excitation of the fine structure transitions within the 1s ²2s ²2p ² ground configuration of Mgvii. The computations have been made at a large number of energies in order to account for the contribution of resonances. All partial waves withL 9 are included in the calculations which are considered to be sufficient for the convergence of collision strengths in the energy range below 65 Ry. From this collision strength data, excitation rate coefficients have been calculated at a series of electron temperatures which are employed in the computation of population of the five lowest levels of Mgvii. The line intensity ratios for the transitions³ P ₁ ¹ D ₂ and³ P ₂ ¹ D ₂ to³ P ₁ ¹ S ₀ are then calculated in the temperature range of 10⁵ to 10⁷ K at electron densities in the range 10⁶ to 10¹⁰ cm^–3. The calculated values are in good agreement with the earlier available results.     

Prediction of the Maximum Amplitude and Timing of Sunspot Cycle 24

Precursor techniques, in particular those using geomagnetic indices, often are used in the prediction of the maximum amplitude for a sunspot cycle. Here, the year 2008 is taken as being the sunspot minimum year for cycle 24. Based on the average aa index value for the year of the sunspot minimum and the preceding four years, we estimate the expected annual maximum amplitude for cycle 24 to be about 92.8±19.6 (1-sigma accuracy), indicating a somewhat weaker cycle 24 as compared to cycles 21 – 23. Presuming a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number minimum in August 2008, a smoothed monthly mean sunspot number maximum is expected about October 2012±4 months (1-sigma accuracy).