Hypothesis on a possible role of El Ni?o in the occurrence of influenza pandemics

The El Ni?o phenomenon is the Earth??s strongest climatic fluctuation on an interannual timescale and has a quasi-global impact, although originating in the tropical Pacific Ocean. A very strong El Ni?o is recognized to cause extreme dryness and wetness in different parts of the world. We show that all the eight well-documented influenza pandemics, starting from the first certain one documented in ad 1580, originated in China and in Russia, a few years after the occurrence of a very strong or after a prolonged strong/moderate El Ni?o event. At present, the next El Ni?o will probably occur at the beginning of 2013 (Mazzarella et al. Theor Appl Climatol 100:23?C27, 2010), and this forecast may suggest to be well prepared to take appropriate precautionary epidemiological measures.     

Enhanced pumping test using physicochemical tracers to determine surface-water/groundwater interactions in an alluvial island aquifer,river Rhône,France

Groundwater extracted from the Barthelasse Island aquifer, surrounded by the river Rhône (southeastern France), contributes to the drinking water supplies of 180,000 inhabitants. Owing to its location close to the river and the presence of two backwaters (oxbow lakes), the pumped groundwater is highly vulnerable to river pollution. A pumping test was conducted over 24 h to analyse and quantify the water exchange processes between the river, backwaters and groundwater. During the pumping test, isotopic (δ¹⁸O, δ²H and ²²²Rn), hydrochemical and hydrophysical monitoring of the groundwater was undertaken. Hydraulic heads were measured in pumping wells and at a piezometer located between the wells. Discrete water samples were collected at several observation points in the field, including the backwater and river. The results show mixing between three end-members, as defined by the deuterium excess and silica concentration, led by river Rhône water which had been affected by water–rock interactions over time and mixing with surface evaporated waters. The pumped water resulted from mixing between three end-members, all of which depended on the river Rhône but differed in terms of residence time in the system. Although the groundwater pumping wells are close to each other (<70 m) and have similar depths, the changes in the contributions from end-member waters at each well were different during the pumping test. Comparing isotopic tracers and geochemistry made it possible to quantify the different hydrological compartments that contribute to the groundwater pumped from the boreholes, which is critical in constructing a conceptual flow model.

     

Assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data into a 3D-coupled physical–biogeochemical model applied to a freshwater-influenced coastal zone

In order to predict eutrophication events in coastal areas we tested an assimilation scheme based on sequential data assimilation of SeaWiFS chlorophyll data into a coupled 3D physical–biogeochemical model. The area investigated is a semi-enclosed estuarine system (Gulf of Fos–North-western Mediterranean Sea) closely linked to the Rhone River delta. This system is subjected to episodic eutrophication caused by certain hydrodynamic conditions and intermittent nutrient inputs. The 3D hydrodynamic model Symphonie was coupled to the biogeochemical modelling platform Eco3M. Surface chlorophyll concentrations were derived from SeaWiFS data using the OC5 algorithm and were sequentially assimilated using a singular evolutive extended Kalman filter. Assimilation efficiency was evaluated through an independent in situ data set collected during a field survey that took place in May 2001 (ModelFos cruise). An original approach was used in constructing the state vector and the observation vector. By assimilating pseudo-salinity extracted from the model biogeochemical dynamics in both open sea and plume region were respected. We proved that substantial improvements were made in short-term forecasts by integrating such satellite-estimated chlorophyll maps. We showed that missing freshwater inputs could be corrected to a certain extent by the assimilation process. Simulated concentrations of surface chlorophyll and other basic components of the pelagic ecosystem such as nitrates were improved by assimilating surface chlorophyll maps. Finally we showed the coherent spatial behaviour of the filter over the whole modelled domain.     

Mineralogical and chemical characterization of historical mortars from military fortifications in Lisbon harbour (Portugal)

Historical mortars from sixteenth to seventeenth century military forts located at the mouth of the Tagus River in Lisbon have been characterized by polarized light microscopy (PLM), thermal analysis (TG/DTA), X-ray diffractometry (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy + energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM + EDS). The results indicate that the mortars used were all hydraulic lime-based. The presence of well-rounded lime lumps indicates a limited use of water during the lime hydration process. The detection of hydrated calcium chloroaluminate and carboaluminate compounds mostly at binder-aggregate interfaces provides evidence for the onset of pozzolanic reactions during mortar production as further confirmed by the presence of ceramic fragments in the aggregate fractions intentionally added by the fort builders to increase the hydraulic properties of the mortars. The higher mechanical strength and greater resistance to degradation processes imparted by these pozzolanic compounds could explain why, despite the extreme proximity of the investigated sites to the sea, salt weathering processes do not appear to have significantly affected the studied mortars.     

Use of Chrysotile Fibres in the Degradation of Cationic and Nonionic Surfactants in Aqueous Solutions

It was previously observed that sodium dodecylbenzenesulfonate (SDBS) is degraded in the presence of chrysotile fibres. A higher catalytic efficiency was obtained than the reported values for TiO₂ under the same conditions. Chrysotile, a clay mineral fibre of low cost and relatively abundant, probably acts as a catalyst through an Advanced Oxidative Process (AOP) involving free radical formation. In this work, experiments with non‐ionic – Triton X‐45 (octil‐phenoxy polyethoxy ethanol) – and cationic – Herquat 3500 (alkyl dimethyl benzyl ammonium chloride) – surfactants were carried out. Diluted aqueous solutions (50 ppm) of these surfactants were kept in contact with chrysotile (4.0 g) in the dark at room temperature. The aromatic ring disappearance was followed through the absorbance peaks at 224 nm (Triton X‐45) and 208 nm (Herquat 3500) in the UV spectra. After 4 h, reductions in the surfactant solution concentration of 65.0% and 35.0% were observed for the Triton X‐45 and the Herquat 3500 surfactants, respectively. In both cases, reactions carried out without aeration showed a lower reduction of the aromatic ring concentration (30.0% less) when compared to the values obtained for the systems with airflow. The system containing the non‐ionic surfactant seems to achieve equilibrium after 2 h, what is not observed for the cationic surfactant system.     

The influence of vertical water balance on modelling Pantanal (Brazil) spatio‐temporal inundation dynamics

The current benchmark approach for mathematical modelling of floodplain hydrologic regime consists of dynamically coupling one‐dimensional (1D) and two‐dimensional (2D) models for flow routing along the main channel and the floodplain, respectively. For large‐scale sites, floodplain inundation may spread over hundreds of square kilometres and may last for many months and even influence seasonal floods in following years. This paper aims at evaluating the effect of vertical water balance representation on modelling a large‐scale floodplain. The Pantanal wetland (140 000 km²; Brazil) is simulated using a 1D/2D coupled model approach, which also considers the representation of vertical water processes over the floodplain. Four scenarios are simulated: Baseline (the reference scenario), NoVertBal (in which the vertical water balance over floodplain is turned off) and ETp+1 and ETp?1 scenarios, characterized by artificially increasing or decreasing daily potential evapotranspiration (ETp) by 1 mm, respectively. The results showed that the effect of the vertical water processes scenarios on channel flow is directly dependent on the lateral exchange of water between the channel and floodplain in the upstream river reach. This influence is stronger when there is a gain of water from the floodplain to the channel. The inclusion of these vertical water processes into floodplain modelling was essential to represent the process of wetting and drying, this effect being more relevant for areas not directly connected to main channels, which is a characteristic of the Pantanal region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.